ahmad googerdchian

Immigration is one of the factors affecting macroeconomic variables, including foreign trade. Considering the large number of Afghan migrants throughout the world, this study sought to investigate the effect of Afghan migrants on the imports and exports of this country during 2001-2019, using the semiparametric augmented gravity model for the empirical purpose of the study. The results of the semiparametric estimation of the fixed effects model have indicated that the role of emigration on the volume of exports and imports of Afghanistan has a non-parametric effect. That is, on some levels of emigration, the increase in the number of immigrants abroad has increased trade and confirms the existence of a complementary relationship between labor migration and trade, contrary to the theory of Heckscher-Ohlin, but at other levels, the accumulation of immigrants has caused a decrease in the volume of Afghanistan's imports and exports. This result is consistent with Heckscher-Ohlin 's theory. Of course, it can be due to the integration of immigrants in the host society and the disconnection with the destination countries, the difference in skills level and information of immigrants.

The present study investigated the effect of imposing international financial sanctions on international risk sharing in developing countries during 2011-2022 using the propensity score matching (PSM) approach. International risk sharing refers to the processes in which countries with different income prospects share the risk of income fluctuations with one another by conducting commercial and financial transactions internationally. Therefore, their income and consumption no longer depend solely on domestic production, but also depend on the production of other countries (countries that own their assets). Since, international capital flows are the main tools for international risk sharing. Imposing international financial sanctions on a country reduces international capital flows and therefore reduces international risk sharing in that country. As the results showed, the impact of financial sanctions on international risk sharing has been negative and significant because the measure of the international risk sharing index in countries that were not subject to sanctions (control group) was 0.5877 and in countries that were subject to sanctions (treatment group) was 0.2431. Therefore, imposing international financial sanctions has reduced risk sharing in developing countries.

There is a lack of study in Iran’s trade literature to investigate the role of unilateral trade preferences in the attraction of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows. Indeed, this study aims to fill such research gap of the literature. This study examined the influence of non-reciprocal trade preferences (NRTPs) on foreign direct investment (FDI) flows in Iran, with a focus on the Quad nations' (QUAD ) Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) programs. The analysis used the time series data for the period 1985 to 2021 using the ARDL technique to examine the relationship between preferences of unilateral trade utilization and FDI inflows. the symmetric results show that GSP intensify FDI in both the long and short-run. Furthermore, this study revealed that if Iran seeks to export sophisticated items or products that are less reliant on natural resources, as well as greatly liberalize its trading policy, the adoption of GSP is projected to create bigger FDI flows to the nation. Other significant research findings of the symmetric impact indicate the existence of an inverse relationship between real effective exchange rate, the share of natural resources, and GDP on the level of foreign direct investment.Keywords: International Trade, Preferences, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), ARDL, Iran

One of the fundamental issues in the field of the impact of institution and individual on each other is to provide a causal relationship between the individual and the institution, as well as to explain the mechanism and process of interaction between the two. The present research first extracts the causal relationship between the individual and the institution. Then, using the two concepts of "properties and commons" and "difference in wills", it explains the mechanism of influence of individual and institution on each other. Recent work has, firstly, substantiated the result of examining the causal relationship that was identified from person to institution in this study, and secondly, by stating that the influence of the individual and the institution in different situations can take various forms, removes this doubt. It shows that the precedence and latency of an institution or individual, like the parable of the hen and the egg, is not a vicious circle or sequence, but has the possibility of a logical explanation. Finally, the research expresses the application of the model in introducing scenarios that support domestic goods and explains that what kind of relationship between the components of the model can lead to the protection of domestic goods. It should be noted that the present study in the first part has used the method of documentation and libraries and refers to the Holy Quran as the main religious source and in the second part has used the method of scenario writing as a tree of probability.

In this study, in order to investigate the different forms of capital flow between developing and developed countries in the steady state, a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, under asymmetric information, is developed. For simulating countries, the parameters of previous studies are used. The results showed that there is high correlation between the two groups of countries so that a shock in one country changes the production and consumption in the other one. In addition, international risk sharing and consumption smoothing is the most important factor shaping the international capital flows. Although, due to the high marginal production of capital, capital inflows into the developing country are in the form of stocks and direct investments. Because of the international risk-sharing and consumption smoothing, capital outflows are in the form of bonds and foreign reserves. In addition, when there is asymmetric information between the economic agents of the two countries about the productivity shocks of each country, capital inflows and outflows in the steady-state will be decreased.

Extracting the correct methodology of how socio-economic phenomena are realized helps us to discover the reality and predict future phenomena, as well as policy-making to create desirable phenomena and eliminate undesirable phenomena. Methodological individualism and methodological collectivism are the two main methodologies in this field. Methodologies that variant schools usually choose one of them according to their point of view. Since in some studies, this issue is extracted through the answer to the agent-structure problem and the type of relationship between them, the present study seeks to reach the methodology of Islamic economy. Finally, the study has concluded that the methodology of recognizing phenomena in Islamic economics is an individualistic methodology. This conclusion is the result of analysis to the types of structure, introduction the soft structure and discussing its nature and examining methodological individualism, methodological collectivism and the possibility of a third branch. It should be noted that the present study seeks to answer this question by documentary and library methods and by referring to the works of thinkers and the Holy Quran as the main religious source.

Today, economists have paid much attention to prediction of currency crises due to their very negative effects on the performance of real economies and the consequences of its subsequent recession. The use of an early warning system for currency crises is therefore introduced as an empirical tool for troubleshooting Iran macroeconomic problems. Based on studies conducted in other countries and using conventional methods of extracting symptoms and estimating crisis probability, an early warning system for currency crises is presented to the Iran economy that can warn currency crises beforehand. Using Multi-layer Perceptron Neural Network and Hard-Limit function, the Early Warning System is basically design to consider seasonal data for the period of 2001 to 2015 to anticipate currency crisis of 2019(based on 12-season warning periods). The results predicted show that no currency crisis is threatening Iran economy in 2019. The export index is one of the leading variables in the system which has the greatest impact on currency crises. In addition, according to the previous data and their substitution in this model, the years 1993, 2001 and 2003 are signaled as critical years. It therefore can be concluded that the present research model is reliable.

Financial flexibility is one of the key factors in making decisions about the Company's financial policeis. In this paper, proposed a novel approach to measure the value a firm's shareholders attribute to its financial flexibility. And examined the relationship between financial flexibility and financial policies, including dividends, capital structure and cash holdings as well as the cost of equity capital. The sample of this study consists of 84 companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange for the period 2007 to 2014 (1386 to 1393 Iranian calendar). In this study, the model developed by Gamba and Triantis ]12[ has been used as financial flexibility criteria. Financial flexibility is calculated using four factors: Growth opportunities, profitability, cost of external financing and Reversibility of capital. To test the hypothesizes, multivariable regression model to panel data and logit model was used. The result of this study shows, there is negative and meaningful relationship Between financial flexibility and Debt leverage and cost of equity capital, In addition to cash holdings is a significant and positive impact. It also has no significant impact between financial flexibility and decisions of division.

Financial crisis of big companies during this decade led to introduce bankruptcy prediction models. The main objective of this study was to assess the information content of the cash flow of the companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange bankruptcy detection using artificial neural networks. The population of this research firms listed in Tehran Stock Exchange for the period from 2005 to 2013 is the year. For this purpose, 84 companies including 42 companies’ bankrupt and 42 healthy firms were selected. This three-layer perceptron neural network is trained using back-propagation algorithm. According to the results, the neural network model to current liabilities ratio of operating cash flow, operating cash flow to interest coverage ratio, cash return on assets ratio, the ratio of earnings quality expected instantaneous power in Iran is capable to bankruptcy. The findings also show that the model accurately predicted 99 percent of the total for the year of bankruptcy, insolvency procedures in two or three years before bankruptcy 91 and 85 and 70%, respectively, accurately predicts.

One of the main concerns in recent years is business development and effective participation of firms in the global economy. However, in this regard balancing economic activities and environmental effects is ignored. The identification of various consequences of industrial activities is of importance in achieving sustainable development goals. The steel industry is a strategic but pollutant industry in the world. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate strengths and weaknesses of steel industry such as its world competitiveness power, the amount and type of emissions and their social costs. The case study of this research is Mobarakeh steel Company. We use contingent valuation method (CVM) and domestic resources cost (DRC) index to answer the research questions. We collect data using the pre-designed questionnaires, Worldwide Websites of steel companies, the International Monetary Fund, Central Bank of Iran, Codal and Mobarakeh steel Company. The results of the calculations for 2013 and 2014 show that the hot and acid pickling products, cold products and coated products are of comparative advantages. Nevertheless, including pollution cost in DRC Index makes the hot and acid pickling products lose their comparative advantages.

All forms of business contain elements of risk, but, when it comes to the international trade, the risk profile takes up a new dimension. Payment or non-payment delay of exported goods arises from two main types of risk, political and commercial risks. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of political and commercial risks of importing countries as well as the impact of governmental supporting policies for export credit insurance on Iran's non-oil exports to the main importing countries. Hence, a set of panel data was used on Iran’s non-oil export to 30 main export destinations. Also, statistics of political, financial and economic risk indices from the International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) for the period 1384 to 1391 were used to evaluate a gravity model.
Two static and dynamic algorithms of the gravity model were used. The static algorithm included static and Mundlak models for separating short-term and long-term effects. The random effects and the system-generalized method of moments (SGMM) approaches were applied to evaluate the static and dynamic models respectively. The results showed the political risk of importing countries has had a positive impact on Iran's non-oil exports in long term. In contrast, the commercial risks, namely economic risks and financial risks, have had a negative impact on Iran's non-oil export.
The study also showed the government has received taxes. This could have a positive effect on the non-oil exports of the country if the government granted subsidies to exporters through export credit insurance policies.

Information asymmetry in stock market can increase the risk of investment which in turn increases the capital cost of firms. Bhattacharya (1979) proposed a hypothesis that states dividend can act as a powerful signal in order to solve information asymmetry problem. We measured information asymmetry by lack of earnings transparency. Therefore we examine the effect of earnings transparency on capital cost in two portfolios; the first with high dividend and the second with low dividend to test the above hypothesis. The results indicate that earnings transparency can only increase market component of expected return. In other words in the portfolio with low dividend signal there is a negative relation between earnings transparency and expected return (meaning that information asymmetry has not been solved). On the other hands in the portfolio with high dividend, the earnings transparency has no negative effect on capital cost; meaning that dividend signal solved information asymmetry problem

One of the fundamental criteria concerning effective decision-making in the stock exchange is stock return which, on its own, possesses an information content that has been used by investors to analyze and predict financial problems. Different studies indicate that shares return will be affected by many variables, one of which is the competitive power of the product market. This study is carried out to find out the effect of the power of the product market competition on stock return of the companies accepted in the Tehran Stock Exchange. The standards of the product market competition are comprised of industry centralization index, goods replacement ability, market size, Tobins Q index, and entrance obstacles (investment intensity). In this study, a sample of 87 companies on the period of 1382 to 1392 has been selected. Considering significant meaning and relation among the presented indexes, the findings suggest that there is a significantly negative relation between industry centralization index, substitute goods capability, market size, Tobins Q index, and shares return of the firms accepted in the Tehran stock exchange. On the other hand, there is no significant relation between entrance obstacles and stock return. The results of analyses indicate that companies with high competitive power have low efficiency.

This study investigates the effect of corporate governance mechanisms on working capital management efficiency. In this research, the variables of corporate governance mechanism consist of the percentage of institutional shareholders, CEO duality, board size, board independence and audit quality. The proxy variable for working capital management efficiency is the "working capital management efficiency index". In this respect, the data of 136 companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange during 1386 to 1390 were studied. Multiple-regression models using pooling data are used to test the hypotheses. Findings indicate that institutional shareholders and CEO duality have positive effects on the efficiency of working capital management, but the board size, board independence and audit quality appear to have no significant effect on the efficiency of working capital management.

Because of agency problems, corporates managers may not apply the corporate resources in the direction of shareholders benefits. Corporate governance can improve this problem. The main purpose of this research is the assessment of the effect of corporate governance on the earnings management that is accepted by the corporate with Initial Public Offering (IPOs) in Tehran Stock Exchange. To determine corporate governance, we used the criteria of the percentage of independent directors on the board of directors. Also, in order to measure the earnings management, we used Jones model (1991). In this research, 45 companies with Initial public offering in Tehran Stock Exchange were examined during the period of 1382 to 1392. In order to test the research hypotheses, we used multiple-regression model for data analysis. Results suggested that there was no significant correlation between the corporate governance and the discretionary accruals. In addition, discretionary accruals showed a negative effect on cash flow from the operational activity in the year after IPO. Corporate governance had a positive effect on discretionary accruals for the forecast of operational cash flows in the year after IPO.

Tehran Stock Exchange, as a symbol of capital market, is influenced by various factors, including economic and political variables. Terrorism incidents a primary political variable affecting on stock market, it is necessary to clarify in what way it puts influence on stock exchange. The main purpose of this study is to consider the effect of terrorism on the return of TSE price index (Tepix). Regarding the purpose of the study, terrorism and return of Tehran stock exchange index are considering independent and dependent variables, respectively; moreover, items like rate of exchange, world price of gold, and the price of Iran’s heavy oil, are controlled variables. Required data were collected in a weekly interval between 2002 and 2014. An EGARCH model is applied to examine the impact of terrorism on stock market. Results showed that terrorism had a significant negative effect on the return of TSE price index.

Stock return is the most important factor in investor's decision making and a measure to evaluating the managers, performance. Different factors affect stock return. The aim of this research is investigation into the effects of the company growth on the relationship of the discretionary accruals and stock return. Target sample consists of 90 companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) during 2005-2012. Jones (1991) model is used in order to find out the degree of discretionary and non-discretionary accruals. Collected data examined using panel data. Results show that company growth does not affect the relationship between discretionary accruals and stock return but it affects the relationship between the positive discretionary accruals and stock Therefore, only the information content of positive discretionary accruals increases by firm growth.

Demand for money is a key component in many macroeconomic theories that always it has been subject of extensive debate among economists. Evaluating this function in macroeconomic problem solving and appropriate policies is important. In other words, fiscal and monetary policy adoption depends on the notice of money demand function and its influencing factors in the economy of each country, so the main objective of this paper is theoretical explanation and estimating money demand of Iran using sidrauski's pattern. Since private consumption in each country's economy is a major part of the aggregate demand, the analysis of this sector and its effect on money demand is very important. For this purpose, in empirical part, modified sidrauski's pattern and annual data have been used over the period 1360-1392 and also for estimating long-run effect of the variables of model on money demand and short-run effect respectively are used auto regression model of distributed lag (ARDL) and error correction model (ECM). The results suggest that consumption has a significant and positive effect on the demand for money in the short-run and long-run, so there is a long-run balance between money demand and private consumption. Inflation tax has also positive and significant effect on money demand in long-run and short-run but consumption tax does not have any significant effect on money demand in the period of 1360-1392

Stock market is a formal capital market which has an effective role in mobilization of financial and capital assets. Stock market is also a proper center of collecting of saving and cash in private sector to finance in long term investment projects. The development of financial markets, especially the stock market and its impact on corporate financing has dramatic impact on economic growth. Major determinants of financial development, include legal Origin; institutions; openness policy; and political factors. Among these determinants, political factors are important sources that are originated from implemented policies and legal institutional frameworks, which are effective to the development of the financial system. In fact, the dynamic political economy shows that economic institutions and legal traditions are effective to promote economic growth and financial development.
This study, firstly explain the concept of political risk and its theoretical relationship between financial development and political risk, and then analyzes the affect of political risk on stock market development, especially the depth and breadth of the market in selected countries for the period of 1384-1391. The evaluation of the modified model Yarty (2008), factor analysis to combine variables to create depth and breadth of the stock market and stock market development indicators and the dynamic panel generalized method of moments based on (GMM) were analyzed.
The results have declared that reduction of political risk has an effective role on depth and breadth of the stock market. According to the results of this thesis in developed country, political risk had more impact on stock market development indicators in Developed countries rather than developing countries.

The main objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of firm growth on the relationship between discretionary accruals and future performance of the company. For this purpose, a sample of 84 companies via was selected the systematic elimination of the firms listed in the Tehran Stock Exchange during the years 1392 to 1384. In this study, to determine the non-discretionary and discretionary accruals sections Jones, model (1991) was used to determine the future performance, cash and net profit were used in the coming year. Then the research hypotheses were tested using the regression model panel data. The results showed that the overall firm growth does not have an impact on the relationship between discretionary accruals and future performance of the company. But in the companies with high growth the impact is greater than other companies use of positive discretionary accruals, to reflect the desirable performance of the firm (transfer good news). And positive discretionary accruals include information content.

In recent years, dividend policy, as a factor of influencing decision investment, draw lots of attention in financial literature. Many economic decisions are made based on information, which is taken from the accounting information systems. Due to the quality of information provided to users is necessary and increasing quality of data can be more efficient investment copmanneis and to maintain and develop their resousces. The aim of this study is the investigation effect of financial reporting quality on impact of dividend on investment decisions. Then, the impact of financial reporting quality on this relationship has been investigated. Also for evaluating the financial reporting quality, the working capital accruals quality model was used. Target sample includes 109 of listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange(TSE) during 1385-1391.To analyze the data and hypothesis testing a multiple regression model based on compound data was used. The results of the study show that dividend have negative and significant effect on investment decisions. Also financial reporting quality mitigates the impact of dividend on investment decisions.

The use of cooperative mechanism in all sectors، especially the agricultural sector، is very important. Agricultural cooperatives are used for providing services such as provision of agricultural inputs، financing and marketing of agricultural products. This paper examines adaptive efficiency of South khorasan province''s cooperativesin providing agricultural inputs with using of transaction cost economics approach. Transaction cost economics can be recognized by combining two different mechanisms and characteristics of transactions as adaptive efficiency case. A change in these characteristics will change the usable mechanism of actor; in this case that mechanism will be selected which enters the lowest transaction cost. Thus، using an econometric model، relationship between agricultural input provision mechanisms (cooperative، non-cooperative and hybrid) with the characteristics of transactions (asset specificity، uncertainty، frequency of transactions) and the control variables have been examined. They are quantified through a questionnaire survey. The results show that some indices of transaction cost economics are significant. For example، under threat of superior competitors in the brand، probability of inputs seller’ cheating، Impact of sanctions and increase in the amount of the volume of purchased inputs agricultural cooperatives have adaptive efficiency. Cooperatives'' development requires careful deliberation of their adaptive efficiency.

Today's the fast growth of tourism as a profitable and clean industry for each country has changes in economic, social and environment. Iran with different potential such as geographic situation, culture and historical background can be among the countries with having profitable tourism industry, of course for using the available opportunities require extensive studies regarding this issue. Since, most important factors that affect the tourism industry are security and economic security, this study tries to evaluate the relation of these factors with tourism in Iran.In this study, ARDL method was used during 1970 to 2010. Also, short and long-term relationship between country's tourism index (as a dependent variable) with macroeconomic variables (such as inflation, unemployment, trade and GDP), some indexes of economic security (such as exchange rate and production fluctuations) and money laundering (using GARCH) evaluated and analyzed. The results show that the index of money laundering can be a negative factor for attracting tourists to the country and tourism development requires the fighting against money laundering as a security and development disturbing factor.

Women as half of the workforce in society can be an effective lever to promote economic and social development goals. In recent years، participation of women in development activities has increased. But the participation of women has been associated with discrimination against them. In recent years with increasing participation of women in the labor market، the income gap between men and women in the labor market is one of the most important discrimination they are facing with it. Understanding the factors affecting women''s employment and the impact of these factors on the wage level and understanding the factors affecting the gender gap، can be very useful in reducing discrimination and achieving sustainable desirable development. With attention، in this study، we tried to analyze influence employment، productivity، education and educating of men and women on decrease gender gap in wages paid to an econometric model. Theoretical basis of this model is based on Blinder- Oaxaca gender gap (1974) and in the period 1370 to 1390. The experimental results with model coefficients using panel data and with using Stata and Eveiws software is obtained and then analyzed. Based on the results، however، productivity and employment increase wages of men and women but it Increase the gender income gap. Education increases wages of men and women but it reduces the gender income gap. Educating reduces wages of women and gender income gap too.

From the late 1970s there were attempts to remove the restrictive assumptions of conventional theories، especially assuming perfect competition market، according to a new hypothesis. New model، the previous forecast in the area of international trade was substantially changed. Specifically because of comparative advantage in international trade went beyond mere given the market structure، imperfect competition، and compatibility with new models، the market was also important. Although considerable theoretical debate about the role of market structure in international trade taken، empirical studies in this field، particularly for developing countries has been limited. Study as an effort in this regard، importance and impact of market structure in IIT and IIT is final. For this purpose، the value added of industry market structure considered for and the calculation of IIT in the six digit level of aggregation is the business hierarchy. The model based on panel data for the period 1997-2006 and the importance of market structure in the inter-industry trade MIIT has been reviewed and finalized. The results of the present study are consistent with the patterns of competition within the industry trade monopoly. To be more precise، despite the low degree of market concentration that changing the market structure is monopolistic competition، significant impact on the business structure of industry and commerce within the industry، it is Iran''s major trading partners. Given that economic growth and development in the context of new patterns of international trade Reduce the share of total trade between industries are trade، the results can be economic policy، especially in the industrial sector business development strategy is important.