quantile regression

Bitcoin is the leader of cryptocurrencies and has the largest market value as a digital asset in most international investment portfolios. However, compared to traditional assets, the nature of this cryptocurrency is not clear from a behavioral perspective. Examining this by following the behavior of the distribution tail or limit behaviors is one of the methods that can help researchers about the nature of this cryptocurrency, because this corresponds to the investigation of limit behaviors and in critical times of this currency. In this regard, this research has used quantile regression to estimate CAViaR models. In addition, to study the effect of each variable on the Bitcoin trend, the GARCH approach has also been used.The results of this research for the daily period from 2018 June 26 to 2022 May 11, Wednesday, showed that by analyzing the 5% percentile quantile regression, examining the behavior of the right tail of Bitcoin distribution, the behavioral similarity of thiscurrency with all the investigated assets is confirmed. This shows that in a situation where the returns of traditional financial markets are positive and the markets are rising, the behavior of cryptocurrencies aligns with the general behavior of the markets. However, examining the behavior of the left tail of the distribution of the variables shows that Bitcoin has no similarity in behavior with the rest of the traditional assets. In other words, when markets are bearish, Bitcoin's behavior is not aligned with traditional markets. However, the return of the homogenous index does not affect the trend of Bitcoin, which was predictable due to the non-compliance of domestic financial markets with international markets due to Iran's economic isolation and international sanctions. Therefore, until the period investigated by this study, Bitcoin has shown a behavior other than known assets and investing in it is still facing the risk of capital burnout, so it is recommended that investors observe risk management in the arrangement of their portfolios.

Banking concentration and financial stability in a country can have different and asymmetric effects on economic growth at different levels. Therefore, this study uses the quantile regression (QR) model to examine the interactions between banking competition, banking stability, and economic growth in Iraq during the period of 2010:01-2020:12. First, Herfindahl-Hirschman, Lerner, three-firm concentration, five-firm concentration, and Z-SCORE indices were calculated, and then the QR model was estimated. The empirical results show that all concentration and stability indices of banks have negative and asymmetric effects on economic growth in different quartiles. Banking concentration has a greater negative impact on economic growth at lower levels. In addition, the coefficients of the banking stability index indicate that a stable financial environment for economic performance is more desirable when economic growth is at a lower level. However, the results of all estimates show that the negative effect of concentration is several times greater than the positive effect of banking stability on economic growth in all quartiles. Therefore, it is recommended to first reduce banking concentration by encouraging investors to create small and medium-sized banks to increase economic growth, and then impose restrictions on large banks to reduce banking risk and increase stability.

One of the economic problems that has affected many countries, including Iran, is inflation. Inflation causes many social and economic problems, and most economists and politicians are looking for a solution to curb inflation. One of the variables that affect inflation in Iran is liquidity and the monetary base, and in this research, the effects of the components of the monetary base on inflation in Iran have been evaluated. In this research, the statistical data of the years  1975-2020 were used and the model used is quantile regression. The results of the research show that for the first model, in conditions of medium and high inflation, with the increase of the monetary base, inflation increases, but in low inflation, the monetary base has no effect on inflation. GDP growth rate also has no effect on inflation. And in high and low inflation, with the increase in the exchange rate, inflation increases. that with the increase or decrease of the expected inflation, the inflation of the current period will also increase or decrease. According to the estimation results for the second model, it can be said that with the increase in the growth rate of banks' debt to the central bank, the growth rate of the exchange rate and expected inflation in high and low inflation, inflation increases and other variables have no effect on inflation.

The history of human development shows that tax is a necessity in the economy of countries because it is related to the birth, existence and development of government. Not only is tax an important revenue for a governments budget, but also it is related to economic growth, fair distribution and social stability. For this reason, tax and its determining factors play a prominent role in economic literature. In developing countries due to ever-growing needs of citizens and limited resources, government are facing challenges in fulfilling their developmental programs. This situation is exacerbated by, on the one hand, increasing costs of public services and on the other hand the pressure of public opinions. In such conditions it is highly required to optimize public funds through public policies. Tax revenue mobilization is a major concern in economic policy making in many countries. While some countries have experienced a considerable rise in the rate of tax to GDP, others show little or no increase in long periods of time. In developing countries, it is essential to increase tax revenues in order to provide funds for public investments and public services. In recent years, governments and international institutions have been more interested in increasing  tax capacities. this shows  they have realized that tax capacity is the core of state building and development.
 

Deferent variables may differ from country to country due to the level of development, economic structure and the role natural resources play in government revenue. As tax behaviors highly tend to follow asymmetric and non-linear patters, it is of great significance for policy makers to investigate the existence of these effects in asymmetric patterns. In other words, in high levels of tax revenue, the effect and even the sign of effective variables on tax revenue may be different from that of low levels of tax revenue. These results show beneficial resolutions which help policy makers to determine the optimal tax revenues. Regarding this issue, the aim of this study is to analyze the asymmetric effects of influential factors on tax revenue during 1360-1398 with quantile regression approach.In this article, quantile regression was used to analyze the model. One of the mast important advantages of this method is the deep and thorough insight into response variables. In other words, quantile approach offers a model which makes it possible for variables that influence the dependent variable to interfere not only in the data center of gravity, but also in all distribution sections including its initial and final sequences.Since quantile regression is capable of creating  models for any kind of quantile, it is more resistant to outlier data and heterogeneity than other methods. Prior to model estimation, the volume of underground economy was estimated through , MIMIC so that the related data enters the research model. That was because underground economy is a hidden variable which is not registered in official statistics and there is not any time series about it. Structural equation model shows the relationship between hidden variables and observed variables as well as observed causes which are called MIMIC.
export can be useful.

The results of model estimation show that per capita income has a positive and significant effect on tax revenues. As the model is logarithmic (except for the variable of inflation rate), the effect of coefficients is the concept of tax revenue elasticity. The results of different quantiles include important tips. In low quantiles of tax revenues per capita income or its elasticity on tax revenue has more effect on tax revenue than in high quantiles. In other words, when the government is earning low levels of tax, increasing per capita income has more effect on tax revenues. These results show that in a period when tax revenues decline, governments efforts to improve economic situation and business increase employment, expand production and increase tax revenues. Similar results have been obtained for added value of industry sector in low quantiles of tax revenue, the effect of added value of industry sector on tax revenues is more than that in high quantiles. Increasing added value of industry sector through expanding industrial products increases the exportation of industrial goods and it consequently increases tax revenues. On the other hand, added value of service sector has insignificant effect on high levels of tax revenues and only in low levels of tax revenues its effects are significant in 90% of confidence level. Furthermore, the effect of added value of agriculture sector is insignificant on tax revenue. Foreign trade has a positive and significant effect on tax revenue. Foreign trade growth and imposing tax on import and export increase tax revenue. This effect is more in low levels of tax revenue. Trade is one of the most important sectors that increases tax revenue. By imposing tax on exportation and importation of different goods governments earn huge amount of tax. Oil  revenue has a negative effect on tax revenues. The effect of underground economy on revenues is also negative and significant. This effect is strengthened particularly in case of high levels of tax revenue. Inflation rate has significant effects on tax revenues only in high quantiles of tax revenue. Finally, the effect of government expenses on tax revenues is also positive and significant. This effect is stronger in low levels of tax revenues. Increasing government expenses in different sectors ca have positive effects on production volume as well as increasing employment. Increasing government  expenses leads to increasing tax revenue through income tax on production and business. Following the process of quantile method, in the next stage after estimating the effects, they must be investigated to be determined as symmetric or asymmetric for this purpose, the test suggested by Newey and Powel (1987) was used. The result of this test showed that the effects of GDP per-capita, added value of industry sector, foreign exchange rate and oil revenues are asymmetric. Other variable in this research had symmetric effects on tax revenues.

Due to considerable tax revenues governments earn from foreign trade (Export and Import), they can concentrate on open-trade policies because optimal open trade can have a positive effect on tax revenue. It also can reduce underground economy. Not only do such measures help the country to called tax through import and export, but also, they contribute to economic growth and improving infrastructures. Consequently, tax revenue would increase.  On the other hand, the government should enhance economic reconstruction in order to archive industrialization, renovation and increasing the effect on GDP and consequently earn more tax revenue. Moreover, technology transfer, increasing management capabilities through importing modern machinery, advanced technology and achieving management skills of foreign.

Economic freedom plays a crucial role in assessing a nation's economic development. It grants individuals or communities the ability to make decisions according to their own desires or intentions. Economic literature from the 1990s onwards has primarily focused on the quality of institutions and economic freedom for the development of countries' economies. Consequently, empirical studies have placed greater emphasis on this subject. The aim of this paper is to examine the effects of value-added in agriculture, industry, services, and foreign direct investment on the economic freedom index from 1990 to 2021 using a Quantile Regression approach. The results of this study indicate that the value-added in agriculture, services, and industry has a positive and significant effect on the economic freedom index. Furthermore, the study suggests that while foreign direct investment has a positive impact, it is relatively weak on the economic freedom index.

One of the most important debates and challenges in macroeconomics is the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on macroeconomic variables. Because exchange rate fluctuations affect the demand of the entire economy through imports; Export and demand of money and change in the foreign exchange reserves of the central bank, and the supply side of an economy affect the cost of imported intermediate goods channel, so the result of these two effects on production depends on the initial economic conditions of the country.Exchange rate impulses are of particular importance due to their adverse effects on the performance of economic variables and economic stability, because they cause uncertainty in the relative price trend, growth in production costs, decrease in profits, increase in risk in production, disruption in decision-making processes and deprivation of the ability to plan and The motivation to invest in economic activities is reduced and due to the data communication in economic activities, production in all economic activities is subject to the same or different degrees of negative effects of the exchange rate.Exchange rate is considered a key variable in the economy of any country, and how it affects other economic variables, including GDP, is one of the important challenges in macroeconomics. Exchange rate fluctuation as a sign of instability and uncertainty affects all important economic variables.

In this regard, the main goal of this research is to investigate the asymmetric effects of the exchange rate on the gross domestic product in the selected country of Iran.

For this purpose, in this research, seasonal time series data of Iran's economy during the period (2006-2020) and in the framework of econometric models have been analyzed using the quantile regression method.

Considering the importance of the issue in policy making and the possibility of influencing production through the exchange rate, it is therefore necessary for the government in economic planning to the conditions of recession and economic prosperity of the country. andconsider more monitoring of the money market and reducing the level of fluctuations and currency shocks caused by speculation in order to increase the country's stability and stability.Exchange rate fluctuations are effective on the country's production and demand growth and some other variables; In the way that today the discussion is about the optimal amount of fluctuations. Therefore, the choice of foreign exchange policies according to theeconomic conditions, in such a way as to lead to the establishment of a suitable exchange rate system, can not only be a way to achieve growth and development, but in turn, it also affects other macro factors will be.The distinction of this article is with the studies done in the estimation method and scope of the time and place period and in the conditions of economic stagnation and prosperity. As mentioned in the rest of the article, many studies have been conducted to investigate the effects of exchange rates on production in Iran, regardless of asymmetry.The asymmetric effects of currency shocks, in addition to creating instability and economic impulses, can simultaneously and intermittently affect society in other dimensions of society, such as decreasing trust and increasing corruption and bribery. In these two and a half decades, the economy has faced many monetary expansions and inflation and currency shocks.Governments are interested in identifying appropriate solutions to achieve macroeconomic goals. One of the most important macro goals is production at the level of full employment and stability and economic growth. Given that the exchange rate and shocks from it areone of the most important factors affecting production, therefore, the empirical knowledge of economic officials on the relationship between currency shocks and production is of great importance in policy making.The importance of this becomes more apparent when the government or economic officials want to make the right decision in business periods and in accordance with exchange rate fluctuations.The results showed that value has a symmetrical effect on production. Currency values and the ratio of capital creation to gross domestic product in several different cases (quartiles) and deciles have a positive and significant effect on production, and it is possible to increase investment and decrease the value of the national currency in Iran.The effect of the variables of capital formation ratio on GDP, the degree of openness of the economy, the consumer price index on production in different quantiles (quartiles) and deciles is not asymmetric on production, so that in different quantiles of production (recession and economic prosperity), the reaction of production to these variables, Although They are different in appearance, but there is no statistically significant difference. Therefore, economic policy makers can use currency policies to influence production regardless of the issue of asymmetry in different business periods (recession and prosperity).

Experimental findings showed that the consumer price index and the degree of openness of the economy had a negative and significant effect on production in different quantities. Therefore, economic policy makers can control inflation in order to increase production.
Experimental evidence showed that although the effects of the variables of capital formation ratio on GDP and the degree of openness of the economy and the consumer price index and exchange rate on production were significant and their coefficients were slightlydifferent in different quantiles. But the tests of asymmetry of the coefficients of the variables It showed that the effects of all variables on production are not significantly different, in other words, the effects of the variables on production were symmetrical.

Extended Abstract
Considering the great importance of exchange rate fluctuations in various sectors of the macro economy, the issue of exchange rate fluctuations and its control has always been discussed in the framework of currency regimes in most countries. Considering that in recent decades, the managed floating system is one of the systems of interest in the world's economies, therefore, the level of involvement in this market and its measurement has played a very important role and has attracted the attention of model makers and economists. In oil-exporting countries, because the economy of these countries is dependent on oil, currency fluctuations and the level of intervention of the monetary authority in these countries are always very important. Most of these studies have identified and explained the paths and quantitative estimation of the effect of oil price on the macroeconomics of countries separately, and very few studies have examined the indirect channels of the effect of oil price shocks on the economy of countries. The point that this study emphasizes is that there is a relationship between oil prices and stock markets in oil importing and exporting countries, which has been neglected in many studies.

In this study, the relationship between oil prices and stock markets in major oil-exporting countries (Russia, Norway, Canada, Iran) and oil-importing countries (USA, India, Japan) has been investigated. For this purpose, quantile regression and weekly data from January 2010 to June 2022 have been used.

Different phenomena in the science of statistics appear in the form of random variables and it will be possible to investigate these phenomena by determining their distribution. In this regard, there are various statistical measures, each of which provides researchers with different information from the random variable distribution. Quantile or quantile regression is a statistical method for estimating and inferring conditional quantile functions. As linear and classical regression methods are based on minimizing the sum of squared errors and can estimate a model for conditional mean functions, quantile regression methods provide a mechanism for estimating models for the conditional mean function and a wide range of other conditional quantile functions. Quantile regression is able to provide a more complete statistical analysis of random relationships between variables. While standard regression methods show how the value of a dependent variable reacts to the change of an explanatory variable; Quantile regression shows the predicted changes for the entire distribution of the dependent variable and is used for the separate effects of the explanatory variable at different points of the distribution of the dependent variable. Of course, it should be acknowledged that one of the shortcomings of standard OLS regression is that the obtained estimate is a number that is used to summarize the relationship between the dependent variable and each of the independent variables.

Knowing the common movement between oil and stock markets is of great importance for investors and policy makers. In this context, there is a lot of empirical literature that shows the complexity of oil price dynamics and stock indices and then the relationship between them. In this study, using the quantile regression method, the relationship between oil price and stock index in oil exporting and importing countries in the period of 2010-2022 has been investigated. The results of the study showed that the price of oil has a positive and significant effect on the stock index in Russia, Norway, Canada, America and India in all deciles and the first 4 deciles in the Japanese stock index. Also, the price of oil has had a positive and significant effect on the stock index in Iran in 6 deciles (first 5 deciles, seventh deciles), and in the last two deciles. Also, by examining the R2adj statistic, it can be said that in all the investigated stock exchanges, except for Russia and Iran, 50 to 70% of the stock index changes are explained by the oil price, which shows the importance of the oil price on the stock index in these countries. In other words, the stock value can be considered equal to the sum of the discount of the future liquidity flows, and since these flows are directly affected by macroeconomic events, therefore, these flows can easily be affected by negative impulses. In addition, oil price volatility also has significant effects on stock market returns. The three categories of capital, manpower and oil can be considered as the most important factors that are used in the production of most goods, therefore, changes or fluctuations in each of these three factors will affect the cash flow.

Depending on whether they are oil importers or exporters, countries have different effects on oil price changes. According to the opinion of many economists, the price increase will bring a decrease in economic growth as well as an increase in inflation for the economy of oil importing countries. But if the oil importing countries have a strong and suitable economic structure, these fluctuations will have a less destructive effect on their economic conditions. In oil exporting countries, it is expected, of course, that the increase in the price of oil will increase their income, which will lead to an increase in their liquidity in the future, which will have a direct and positive impact on the capital market and the stock index. Now, if these incomes are used to buy domestic products, this increase in income leads to an increase in production and economic growth, and consequently to an increase in investment, which leads to an increase in stock prices. Therefore, according to oil price fluctuations in recent years, investors and policymakers should consider market conditions in their decisions based on modeling the relationship between oil and stock markets. Also, considering the changes that will happen over time in relation to the price of oil and the stock market, investors and policy makers should pay attention to this dynamic behavior of stock markets.

The impact of technological advances on energy consumption is one of the topics that has been considered by many researchers and policymakers. Numerous researchers have tried to evaluate this relationship based on various technology indicators. The index of economic complexity is one of the new indicators that has been used in recent years to measure the level of knowledge and technology in the production structure. In this paper, the index of economic complexity along with energy prices and GDP have been used as determining factors of energy consumption in Iran during the period 1976 to 2018. Quantile regression results show that the coefficients of the variables are different in the deciles. The impact of economic complexity on energy consumption in all deciles has been positive, indicating the dominance of the rebound effect on energy consumption. Price elasticity is less than one in all deciles and less in the higher consumption deciles. In contrast, the income elasticity of energy demand was higher in the upper deciles

Investigating the effect of oil price uncertainty on the Tehran Stock Exchange index is of great importance because with increasing uncertainty in oil prices, the systematic risk of the stock market index increases. On the other hand, in oil exporting countries such as Iran, oil revenues are among the most important and influential factors in macroeconomic variables and, consequently, financial market indicators. The present study investigates the effect of oil price uncertainty on the Tehran Stock Exchange index using the wavelet-based quantile regression model (MODWT-MRA) during the period April 2011 to April 2021 in Iran.. The results of the model estimate showed that with the increase in oil price uncertainty, the Tehran Stock Exchange index will decrease. According to the results, the effect of oil price uncertainty on the Tehran Stock Exchange index in the first few quantiles has a smaller coefficient than the final quantiles, so the negative effect of oil price uncertainty on the Tehran Stock Exchange index in recent months is more than the first months. Also, the coefficient value on the component 5 scale is much higher than the component 1 scale; Therefore, the negative effect of oil price uncertainty on the Tehran Stock Exchange index in the short run is much greater than the value of this effect in the long run. This is because in the long run, the investor will adjust to the uncertainty.

Nowadays, as the most diverse, the tourism industry is the most vital source of income and job opportunities for many countries in the world. Iran has the potential to attract tourists due to its rich historical, geographical, cultural, and natural attractions. Iran has the potential to attract tourists due to its rich historical, geographical, cultural, and natural attractions. Knowing the factors affecting the tourism industry is critical; however, identifying tourism obstacles can be more vital. In today's world, various risks affect the economy of countries. On the other hand, climate change has become the most crucial concern of humankind in this century. This paper uses the quantile regression method to investigate the impact of country risk, including economic risk, political risk, financial risk, and ecological footprint, on tourism demand in Iran from 1989 to 2020. The results of this research illustrate that country risk and its components have a negative and significant impact on tourism demand in Iran; this can demonstrate the importance of risk and uncertainty in Iran's economy. Moreover, the ecological footprint as a proxy of climate change negatively and significantly affects tourism demand in Iran. According to the research results, it is suggested that policymakers adjust the policies to reduce the country's risk and increase the confidence of foreign tourists to travel to Iran. On the other hand, paying attention to the climate change crisis should become more critical for the government and society; otherwise, this crisis can negatively affect tourist attractions in Iran.

Inflation is one of the economic problems that has affected many countries, including Iran. Inflation causes many social and economic problems, and most economists and politicians are looking for a solution to curb inflation. One of the variables that affects inflation in Iran is liquidity and monetary base. The country's bank balance sheet has been facing a widening imbalance due to the overdraft of the banks from the central bank and the government's budget deficit. Therefore, in this research, the impact of banks' imbalance on inflation in Iran has been estimated. In this research, the statistical data of 1370-1400 were used and the model used is quantile regression. The results of the research show that with the increase in the growth rate of banks' debt to the central bank, the growth rate of the government's debt to the central bank and the exchange rate in high and low ranges, inflation increases, as well as the growth rate of the production gap and The openness of the financial market has a significant and negative effect on inflation.the the the the ....the the the t h e t h e t . h . e . t h . e t h e

Tax is one of the most important sources of revenue for governments and one of the political tools to improve the distribution of income. In this regard, it is important and valuable to evaluate the reaction of various types of tax income to economic growth in order to know the country's tax capacity. This  research, by applying the quantile regression approach and Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag  and using the statistical evidence of Iran over 1981-2019, shows that in high tax quantiles, the positive effect of economic growth on taxes has increased in all types of taxes. Also, considering that goods and services tax has the highest share in tax revenues, its low tax elasticity can greatly reduce the stability of government revenues. But direct taxes, income tax and salary tax, due to their higher elasticity, play an important role in the stability of the government's income, the confirmation of the symmetrical effects of positive and negative economic growth shocks on all types of taxes shows that the tax is low compared to the potential capacity. Tax and the inability of the tax system to implement the tax efficiently. Therefore, focusing on the development of activities with high added value and taxes with higher elasticity will play an important role in the stability of the government's income.

The trend of Iran's GDP in the last four decades has faced several shocks due to the revolution, the outbreak of war, the imposition of international sanctions and the spread of the Covid-19 disease, which had a decisive role in its direction. In this study, the influencing factors on business cycles in Iran were examined with the quantile regression approach for the time period of 1982-2022 and the results showed that Iran's economy has gone through about 4 business cycles during this time period. From the years 1980 to 1983, 1989 to 1993, 2001 to 2008 and 2015 to 2017, there have been periods of prosperity, as well as the periods of 1982 to 1985, 1991 to 2000, 2011 to 2015, and 2017 to 2020. that with the intensification and application of new sanctions and the withdrawal of the United States from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and the emergence of the Corona pandemic in Iran from 2018 to 2020, Iran's economy has entered a period of rapid recession. And the results of applying the ARDL method show the negative effect of labor productivity variables, employment rate and foreign trade on business cycles. And the positive impact of final consumption expenditures , oil revenues and sanctions on business cycles (leading to the aggravation of economic recession) has been, Also, the results of the test of the effects of the variables on the symmetry and asymmetry of the cycles showed that the effects of these variables on the business cycles were symmetrical.

One of the innovations of the last decade in the field of Islamic monetary discussions is the publication of various Islamic securities.The release of different types of Islamic financing tools as an alternative to conventional bonds is considered one of the most important achievements of Islamic finance,which has found a special place in Islamic and non-Islamic countries,which are designed based on Islamic contracts and are a suitable alternative to bonds. Interest-bearing securities are especially bonds.The aim of the present study is to analyze the impact of Islamic financing tools on monetary policies in Iran with Taylor rule approach in the period of 1984-2020using quantile regression method.The results show that Islamic financing tools have a negative effect on the growth rate of the monetary base.In other words,with the increase in the use of Islamic financing tools,the monetary base growth rate has decreased,which shows that the behavior of monetary policy makers towards Islamic financing tools has been based on rules.

Investigating the effect of oil price uncertainty on the consumer price index of countries dependent on oil revenues is of great importance. Oil revenues in oil exporting countries are among the most important and influential factors in macroeconomic variables. As the risk increases due to oil price uncertainty, the government budget is affected and this leads to the consumer price index being affected. The present study examines the effect of oil price uncertainty on the consumer price index using the quantile regression econometric model based on wavelet transformation during the period from April 2011 to April 2021 in Iran. The results of the empirical model estimation showed that the relationship between oil price uncertainty and consumer price index is inverse. In other words, with the increase of uncertainty in the price of oil, the consumer price index will decrease, and this effect is greater in the final digits than in the initial digits. Also, according to the estimation results of the wavelet transformation model, the negative effect of oil price uncertainty on the consumer price index is greater in the long term than in the short term.

The labor market in Iran is subject to bottlenecks that, if continued, could damage the national economy. High unemployment and low labor force participation are some of these problems. One of the factors affecting the level of employment and labor force participation rate is the corruption index. Therefore, in this study, using the quantitative regression method, the impact of various corruption index on the labor force participation rate and employment in selected member countries of the Islamic Cooperation Organization during the period 2018-2000 has been studied. Based on the results of model estimation, in all quantiles, the effect of corruption on labor force participation rate and employment is negative. Because corruption reduces the level of employment and labor force participation rates in selected countries by negatively affecting economic growth and the business environment and diverting government spending toward unproductive goals. Consumption level and institutional quality also have a positive effect on labor force participation rate and employment level in estimated quantiles. Also in the estimated quantiles, the impact of informal economy on labor force participation rate and employment level is negative. The effect of per capita income on the level of employment and labor force participation rate was both positive and negative.

This study seeks to investigate the asymmetric effect of oil price volatility on Iranian stock market returns using seasonal data from autumn 2008 to autumn 2021. For this purpose, the quantile regression model was examined in the quantiles of 0.10 (lower), 0.50 (middle), and 0.90 (higher) quantails which refer to Bearish, Normal and Bullish conditions in the stock market, respectively. The results show that the quantile estimation is not symmetrical and the positive fluctuations of oil prices in the bearish and bullish situations of the stock market have a negative and significant effect on the stock returns, and in the normal state, it does not have a significant effect on the stock returns. The effect of negative oil price fluctuations is positive and significant in all three situations of the stock market, but in the bullish situation, it has a greater effect on the stock returns than in the bearish situation. In the normal state of the stock market, oil price fluctuations should be considered symmetrically; This means that the effect of reducing oil price fluctuations is the same as the effect of its increase on the return of the Iranian stock market. Due to the fluctuating nature of oil prices in the world markets, some economic indicators of oil exporting countries, including the capital market, are subject to instability, and to predict the behavior of capital market investors, different market conditions must be analyzed differently from each other.