fuzzy delphi

The management of subway construction projects is very important due to the high cost and long duration and the economic, social and environmental impact. In order to properly and systematically monitor these projects, the critical factors of success in these projects must be identified, Prioritized and supervised them. For this purpose, in this research, the critical success factors in the projects are identified and categorized by reviewing the literature, then these factors are refined for metro construction projects with the fuzzy Delphi method. In the next step, the fuzzy DANP method is used to understand the interaction of the factors and obtain their weights. In the stage of identification of factors, 21 factors were identified and categorized in the four dimensions of finance, quality, sustainability, and organization, and 12 factors remained by performing two rounds of fuzzy Delphi. results show that The quality dimension affects the other three dimensions, which means the need to invest in quality to improve the performance of the project in all dimensions. Finally, the weights of the factors were obtained, which results shows the importance of the factors of ecological value and adaptation to weather conditions. These two factors are in the dimension of sustainability and it is important to pay attention to environmental issues in the success and sustainability of the project in the long term. The results of this research can be a guide for managers to effectively monitor subway construction projects to achieve success of various dimensions.

The location of logistics centers is of great importance for large-scale investments. Scientific studies have focused more on the location of logistics centers using multi-criteria decision-making methods. In this research, a novel approach for locating all types of logistics centers, including urban, rural, specialized logistics parks, and border logistics, at the provincial level is presented using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) method. For the first time, counties have been categorized into logistics centers using the provincial development document. To select and weight the criteria for logistics centers, the fuzzy Delphi method was used. For validation, the proposed approach was applied in West Azerbaijan province, where no county was selected as a logistics city. Additionally, two counties were identified as rural logistics centers, four counties as specialized logistics parks, and five border logistics centers were ranked. This approach, as a comprehensive model, can be applied in all provinces.

This study aims to identify and assess the selection criteria for sustainable and resilient suppliers within the steel industry, while focusing on Industry 5.0 concepts. The research highlights the significance of integrating sustainability, resilience, and human-centricity in supply chains to address complex environmental and social requirements.

The identified criteria were authenticated through a fuzzy Delphi method by experts and weighted using the fuzzy Best-Worst Method (BWM). The purposive sampling involved 10 experts with a minimum of 15 years of experience and at least a master's degree in relevant disciplines.

The results revealed that the "human-centricity" criterion holds the utmost importance in supplier selection. Criteria such as "adoption of Industry 4.0 technologies" and "human-robot collaboration" ranked next. Moreover, conventional criteria such as "quality" and "cost reduction" considerably impacted decision-making.

Originality/Value:

 This study represents the first scientific attempt to integrate Industry 5.0 concepts, such as sustainability, resilience, and human-centricity, into the supply chain of Iran's steel industry. The findings provide practical perspectives for managers in developing sustainable and resilient supply chains.

Currently, the lack of water threatens the lives of billions of people around the world, and due to population growth, economic growth, and climate change, this trend is expected to continue and become more acute in the future. Therefore, the desire to curb excessive water consumption through identifying the main factors affecting consumer behavior has become very important in the management of drinking water resources. By understanding this necessity, the aim of the current research is to identify and investigate the causal relationships and prioritize the factors influencing the pattern of water consumption in the domestic sector. In this regard, by reviewing the literature in the field of water and interviewing industry experts, factors affecting consumption were identified and monitored in various criteria. Through the fuzzy Delphi method to investigate the action factors and finally 7 main economic, social, cultural, technical and engineering, legal and managerial, spatial and temporal criteria with 26 sub-criteria were identified. Then, through the fuzzy Dematel method, cause and effect relationships were investigated and these factors were evaluated and ranked using the fuzzy Topsis technique. The results obtained from the research on family awareness, use of water-reducing devices, advertising and education, consumption motivation, water tariff and pricing, and the use of new faucets ranked first to sixth. The findings of the research show that among various factors, it is possible to have a high impact on water consumption management by increasing the awareness of households on how to use water and changing the consumption pattern.

The purpose of this research is providing a solution to help make better decisions in the ambiguous world of uncertainties. In a world full of uncertainties, researchers invented methods such as scenario planning and robust decision making, and for highly ambiguous environments they tough up fuzzy logic. Today, without a decision support system, decision making will be done relatively slowly. Without considering different scenarios, it is not possible to make robust decisions in the face of numerous large and small uncertainties.

This research is of applied and qualitative type. The data were collected in a documentary and library method from the articles and books available in reliable scientific databases using computer files. The type of data is qualitative and the method of data analysis is thematic analysis.

In robust decision-making, scenarios are used in two ways. In one case, after choosing several alternative decisions, you can write the scenarios that affect them and evaluate the decisions. Otherwise, you can first write different scenarios and then test alternative decisions in those scenarios and choose the optimal decision as the robust decision. Also, fuzzy logic can be used in the form of fuzzy Delphi and other fuzzy calculations in different parts of scenario planning and strategy robustness evaluation.

Originality/Value: 

In this paper, a method was presented according to which a robust decision support system can be developed using the GBN scenario planning method and fuzzy logic. In this method, fuzzy Delphi was used to create scenarios and fuzzy inference system was used to make decisions.

iThe purpose of this article is to identify and analyze the key drivers of digital signature implementation in Iran with a fuzzy Delphi approach. In terms of practical purpose and in terms of information gathering, the research has benefited from a hybrid approach. The statistical community consists of all experts and specialists in the field of information technology and digital signature and articles in this field. The sample size of the statistical community of experts is 13 people who were selected by the purposeful sampling method. 30 articles were selected based on their availability and downloadable, non-technical nature, and relevance to the topic. The method of data analysis was done according to the fuzzy Delphi approach. Validity and reliability were calculated and confirmed using the CVR index and Cohen's kappa test with coefficients of 0.83 and 0.93, respectively. The results prove that the key drivers of digital signature implementation in Iran include 5 main dimensions and 30 concepts, which are 1) security (information confidentiality, information security, sender authentication, document authentication, privacy protection, trust between parties), 2) business (digital business models, communication needs, staff management, organization size, organizational structure, organization resources, organizational culture, top managers, competition ecosystem, e-governance), 3) user (perceived convenience, perceived benefit, consumer behavior, consumer literacy, consumer lifestyle), 4) technical (development of technical infrastructure, systems integration, system complexity, system tanks, design quality, technical speed of certificate production and verification, impermeability of hackers) and 5) Legal (legal licenses, penal laws, legislative body, e-commerce laws).

Today, sustainable development is one of the areas that business managers pay attention to in order to achieve long-term success and development. One of the areas of sustainability that has received little attention, especially in Iran, and there is limited knowledge about it, is the issue of sustainable innovation, which can create valuable results. Therefore, the aim of this research is to identify the dimensions and components of sustainable innovation in the packaging industry and provide a framework in this field. This research is descriptive-survey in terms of applied purpose and in terms of data collection method. At the beginning of the research, the theoretical foundations and previous research in the field of the research topic were examined. Based on the findings, 26 components of sustainable innovation were identified in the form of 6 dimensions. The identified dimensions include product innovation, environmental, production, organizational, managerial and social. In the next step, the fuzzy Delphi method was used to localize the identified components in the packaging industry. For this purpose, a panel of 13 experts was formed and they were asked to rate the identified factors based on a five-point Likert scale. After two rounds of the fuzzy Delphi process, 25 factors were finalized. In the next step, by using the TOPSIS fuzzy method and asking the opinion of 28 managers and specialists of Yazd packaging industries, priority was given to the components of sustainable innovation. Based on the findings, the three components of improving the quality of the final product, improving the production technology and improving the technical characteristics of the product have the highest priority. Finally, the research results showed that sustainable innovation in the packaging industry is a multidimensional phenomenon with valuable results.

The use of digital technology for teaching and learning has been discussed for decades, but now and in the post-Corona era, due to the problems of the COVID-19 pandemic, it has become the focus of many educational institutions. The effect of COVID-19, in a short period, brought about a huge change in the way of education and learning and even completely blocked some educational activities. As a result, education administrators have turned to other alternatives to replace face-to-face or traditional learning. Virtual education is one of the very important and serious programs proposed and carried out by educational institutions in that era, now and in the post-Corona period. The quality of designing and providing virtual education, like face-to-face education, depends on several inputs such as the teacher, learner, technological tools and education design, financial resources system, educational policies, and so on. Among the listed factors, the lecturers of these courses are of special importance. Therefore, according to the change in the teachers’ role, their previous skills can no longer be answered, and teachers, in addition to acquiring the necessary skills in the traditional learning environment, need empowerment in various fields, which is the most important step in achieving this important identification. Today, few universities can improve and develop without providing training courses to empower their faculty members, and this is doubly important in the post-Corona period when universities place a lot of emphasis on virtual education. This is because in the Corona and post-Corona period the emphasis on virtual education in higher education and increasing its use, requires special knowledge, skills, and abilities for professors To achieve this, identifying the skills of lecturers in virtual education, it seems essential and paying attention to these skills will lead to the growth of professors and as a result, improve the quality of virtual education. In particular, there is no significant study for the post-Corona period in the context of the research topic, and there is no study on identifying and explaining the teaching skills of teachers for virtual education using the methods of content analysis and fuzzy Delphi. Therefore, the present study aims to identify and explain the skills of academic staff members in virtual education in the post-Corona period in a precise manner using the approaches of content analysis and fuzzy Delphi and presenting a conceptual model.

This research is an applied and descriptive research and the combined research methods of interview, content analysis, and fuzzy Delphi were used to collect and analyze information. The statistical population of the research is 20 experts and professors of the Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman. Data were collected through in-depth and semi-structured interviews. Then, all the interviews were analyzed with the method of content analysis, and the skills were extracted and identified. Then, skills were refined and explained in four survey stages using the fuzzy Delphi method.

In the interview with the experts, two main questions were used to measure the skills and competencies of academic staff members for virtual education in the post-Corona period. The results of the qualitative section included 452 initial codes, which were reduced to 31 main codes and five main categories after data reduction and merging overlapping terms. These five main classes include moral-social, technical-technological, educational-learning, individual-managerial, and supervisory-supportive skills. Then, with a questionnaire, 31 identified skills were examined for refinement and confirmation in four stages. By examining the skills, the experts approved all of them with the fuzzy Delphi approach.

In this study, it was determined that 31 skills are considered for virtual education teachers. In the meantime, we can safely say that 12 skills of social facilitation and appropriate counseling, conflict management, professional and ethical commitment, strategies and applications of learning theories, scholarly and research skills and knowledge sharing, skills to facilitate the teaching process, online lectures, encouraging and motivational skills, administrative and operational organizational skills, maintaining communication with students after completing the course, feedback, and monitoring learning activities, which were approved in the first round of the fuzzy Delphi method, are the most important skills of virtual education. Therefore, more emphasis should be placed on these skills in the post-Corona era in virtual courses.

Explaining the competitive strategies of supply chain management is vital. Therefore, examining supply chain risks to choose the best criteria is a new strategy to manage and control risks and reduce the vulnerability of the supply chain process in order to improve the process and productivity. The purpose of the current research is to identify and rank the risks of the  three-level supply chain (supplier, producer and distributor) with a focus on level (2) of production and operations in order to explain the new strategy in the operating company of oil and gas production. This article has been done by reviewing the studies conducted in the field of identifying and ranking the risks of lean, agile, resilient and green supply chain management, by presenting a hybrid analytical model based on fuzzy Delphi and the network analysis process in the Super-Decision software environment. The risks identified using the literature review, 32 effective components with the contexts and the real space of the supply chain and with a survey of the expert team of 17 people, have been carried out in three stages according to the fuzzy Delphi method. Finally, after refining and evaluating the extracted factors, it led to the identification of 6 criteria (environment, supply, information system, process, control and demand) consisting of 26 risks, categories and ratings. According to the findings of the research, the risks of the process criterion with the highest weight were chosen as the superior criteria and the criteria of supply, control, environment, demand and information system were placed in the next priorities. Explaining the new strategy, agile, lean, resilient and green competitive strategies were prioritized in order.

Ports always play a strategic role in the development of a country's domestic and international trade, whether it is developing or developed. Ports as a base of maritime trade have changed a lot in recent decades, but in line with these changes, the Ports and Maritime Organization, as the main custodian of port and maritime policy, must adapt quickly, and this adaptation and the process of change in the next generations of ports of the country should lead to good governance in the management of port affairs. The present study is a descriptive-survey research in terms of applied purpose and based on its nature and method. This study identifies the effective factors on good governance in the Ports and Maritime Organization by comprehensively reviewing the existing literature and then using fuzzy Delphi method to refine the components based on the opinions of experts and then analyzing the relationships between the components of good governance using the Fuzzy Dematel technique. Findings show that the component of "Responsibility" has the most impact,influens and most of the interaction and communication with other components is among the other components of good governance.

Cultural intelligence is one of the capabilities available in the organization that managers can use in various situations. Cultural intelligence can be an important factor in improving the quality of services provided to clients and their satisfaction. The main purpose of this study is to explain the interactive relationships of the dimensions of cultural intelligence of managers in the municipalities of northern provinces. This study aims to review the literature on cultural intelligence, identify the basic indicators of cultural intelligence using the Delphi method, and using the fuzzy Demetel method, to provide a systematic model for modeling and the impact of components. The results of the study indicate that the dimensions of cultural intelligence are: behavioral intelligence, cognitive intelligence, religious cultural intelligence, organizational identity intelligence, motivational intelligence, social capital, behavioral intelligence. Organizational identity intelligence and behavioral intelligence are the most effective components and cognitive, motivational intelligence and social capital are the most effective components. In the end, it is suggested that in order to improve the status of cultural intelligence, while paying attention to all variables, it is necessary to pay more attention to the variable of religious cultural intelligence..

The present study aims to identify and prioritize agricultural water protection Solutions in Kermanshah province with a Delphi-fuzzy. As a paradigm the research was qualitative and exploratory approach. The research was done approach in two rounds to reach a group agreement between 25 experts. The results showed that water conservation Solutions can be classified into four categories: "managerial", "technical", "cultural", "infrastructure" and "policy-making". In two rounds DE fuzzy variance was less than 0.25, so all identified strategies were valid.The results also showed that the most important strategies in each of the strategies are the strategies of changing the cultivation pattern, equipping farms with a new irrigation system, creating a culture by the media and reviewing the rules and regulations of the water sector. Agricultural production is significantly affected by the state of water resources as well as the policies of the responsible inputs. Agricultural production is significantly affected by the state of water resources as well as the policies of the responsible institutions. If the water crisis is not dealt with, in addition to a significant reduction in agricultural production and economic decline in the province due to the centrality of agriculture, it will lead to a reduction in rural incomes. Agricultural production is significantly affected by the state of water resources as well as the policies of the responsible inputs. Agricultural production is significantly affected by the state of water resources as well as the policies of the responsible institutions.

The key to success in the world of auditing has been the ability to adapt auditorschr('39') knowledge to the process of changing audit approaches. This article aims to apply the combination of multi-criteria decision-making methods in risk-based auditing (RBA) in credit institutions. In terms of method, the present study is exploratory. The statistical population of the study Managers and banking and academic experts have the authority to comment on the identification, evaluation of indicators and processes affecting RBA. The key indicators of RBA were selected based on documentary and field studies and interviews with 7 managers and banking experts and were weighted by 3 managers using FUCOM method. Banking risks were ranked based on key risk indicators using the EDAS method and audit processes were processed based on the type and degree of risk and based on the opinion of 14 members of the Audit Committee, risk, compliance and anti-money laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism of Credit institution was screened using the fuzzy Delphi method. The results of this study show the 4 key indicators of RBA in order of importance, including; The opinion of the Chairman of the Audit Committee, the value of assets exposed to the type of risk in the reports of the independent auditor and statutory auditor for the last 5 years, the opinion of the Subcommittee on Risk Management and the value of assets exposed to the type of risk The findings also show; Major facilities and commitments, establishing a corporate governance framework, providing banking products and services, and legal partnership and investment, respectively, were selected as the most important processes for RBA. For the proposed method, an empirical example of RBA in a credit institution is given.

Considering that a significant portion of the share of energy consumption among consumer sectors is in the home and commercial sectors and this share is still increasing, there is a need for research in energy consumption management and evaluation of effective indicators in the building industry. Building the country is vital to optimizing energy consumption. One of the most appropriate ways to optimize fuel consumption in the building and housing sector is the implementation of zero energy buildings which is considered as the main solution in the world. In this research, after analyzing the population and statistical sample, data were collected to evaluate effective criteria and options related to energy consumption management. First, fuzzy Delphi method was used to evaluate the sub-criteria and select the main options of each. At first level the criterion is discussed and at the second level the data analysis and research model is analyzed through paired comparisons using fuzzy hierarchical analysis technique. Finally, the most important indicators and criteria are obtained using fuzzy hierarchical analysis. According to the research findings, among the energy consumption optimization management indices investigated by the FAHP method, the economic, construction and utilities indices with 0.333, 0. 201 and 0.176 have the highest management priority, respectively. Energy-efficient optimization has a zero-energy building approach.

Nowadays, cyberspace has affected on various areas. So, it is necessary to control the negative and the positive effects of this space. Social security mentioned to the feeling of risk of the collective identity and society. The present study investigates the cultural and social threats of cyberspace on security, considering the dimensions of cyberspace effects. Social security is one of the pillars of soft warfare, so it is important to identify and control the threats. In this study, first 35 threatening factors were identified based on literature review and completing them by interviews with experts. Based on fuzzy Delphi, factors have been prioritized and 12 main factors extracted. Then, based on interpretive structural modeling, the factors are classified and placed in three levels, the lower levels have high priority and the factors of emergence of social movements, diminishing religious beliefs, using cyberspace as a tool of domination and the possibility of creating social unrest have the highest level of threats. Then, the factors are clustered by Mikmak analysis. At the end some suggestions and policy recommendations for controlling these factors are presented.