جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه "ایران" در نشریات گروه "اقتصاد"

It is commonly known that the exchange rate is one of the most important macroeconomic variables whose changes strongly influence a country's balance of payments and international competitiveness. Exchange rate fluctuations affect the production costs of companies whose products have an import component. The manufacturing sector is also affected by the foreign exchange market and its fluctuations, as it interacts with the global economy through the export of products and the import of means of production. Economic policy makers should know how changes in the nominal exchange rate will affect prices at the sectoral level. This paper aims to examine the impact of the exchange rate on manufacturing prices both at the general level and at the sub-sector level.

The methodology used in this study is based on Bayesian vector auto-regression models. The data are seasonal and cover the period from spring 1996 to summer 2023. In this study, the BVAR model was used for 22 manufacturing subsectors at the two-digit ISIC code level and for the entire manufacturing sector, resulting in a total of 23 models. Before estimations, the data were tested to determine whether they had a unit root or not. In addition, before estimating the VAR model, the appropriate number of axis intercepts should be determined for the model. The likelihood ratio test was used for this purpose. First, the LR test was used to sequentially test the null hypothesis that the interval between the equations was not significant and the counter-hypothesis that at least one of the coefficients was non-zero. After selecting the variables and estimating the models, the pass-through of the exchange rates to the different prices was examined by analyzing the shock-response functions. Given the different effects of the exchange rate pass-through on the chain of price indices, the question arises as how the increase in the exchange rate affects the individual price indices as a whole and what percentage share this increase has in the individual price indices. They reflect the exchange rate pass-through. To answer this question, a method introduced by Farooqi (2006) was used. After estimating the BVAR model, the shock response functions were defined cumulatively. Then, the size of the cumulative effect caused by the exchange rate change on each price index was compared with the size of the cumulative effect of the currency shock on the exchange rate.

The results show that the price indices for imported and exported goods at the level of total manufacturing do not react in the same way as an exchange rate shock. The price indices of imported goods (76.5 percent) and exported goods (32.3 percent) show the highest increase in the first year compared to the other price indices. The effect of the exchange rate shock on the price index of manufactured goods in the first months is very similar to the effect of the price of imported goods. It reaches its peak in the first year, but, after that, the effect of the exchange rate on the prices of manufactured goods gradually disappears by the end of the second year. This suggests that the impact of the exchange rate on domestic manufacturing prices is incomplete. The results also show that the "manufacture of coke, refined petroleum products and nuclear fuel", "manufacture of medical, precision and optical instruments and watches", and "manufacture of radio, television and communication equipment" industries react most strongly to the shock. By contrast, the sectors showing the least reaction to the exchange rate shock are "manufacture of textiles", "tanning and dressing of leather, luggage, handbags, saddlery, harness and footwear", "manufacture of wearing apparel, dressing and dyeing of fur", and "manufacture of tobacco products”.

Conclusions and policy implications: 

According to the results of the study, it is recommended that the policy of stabilizing the foreign exchange market be continued. This is because the increase in the exchange rate leads to an increase in production costs and affects various industries in the country. Finally, it increases the price of products. Therefore, the continued stabilization of the foreign exchange market will reduce the inflation rate.

Understanding the distribution of poverty within society—whether chronic or transient—is crucial for designing and implementing effective poverty reduction policies. This paper uses seven panels of data spanning different periods from the 1990s to the 2020s to estimate chronic poverty trends in Iran, applying two methods the components method and the equally distributed equivalent (EDE) poverty gap method. The components method reveals a lower proportion of chronic poverty compared to the EDE approach, which estimates this figure at an average of 88%. Over time, chronic poverty trends have paralleled broader macroeconomic conditions, declining from the 1990s through the early 2010s, stabilizing briefly, and then increasing again by the late 2010s. The EDE poverty gap method also distinguishes chronic poverty into two parts: the average poverty gap and an inequality component. The findings suggest that changes in chronic poverty are primarily driven by fluctuations in the average poverty gap, with inter-individual inequality playing a less prominent role, despite consistently comprising a larger share of chronic poverty.

Women, as half of the population, play a significant role in the development and growth of any country. The industrial sector has consistently drawn the attention of policymakers, with one of its key concerns being women's employment and the impact of related variables on their participation in this sector. In Iran, the labor market holds particular importance due to various economic and social factors. Over recent years, the supply of labor has consistently exceeded demand, a trend that is expected to intensify in the future, necessitating the evaluation and analysis of influencing factors. Moreover, the labor market is one of the four critical markets in the economy, given its profound influence on and interaction with other economic markets. The balance or imbalance of labor supply and demand serves as a crucial indicator of macroeconomic performance in any country. Given the importance of women's employment in Iran's industrial workshops, this article assesses the factors affecting women's participation in 24 industrial activities, categorized according to the two-digit codes of the International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC), fourth edition. The analysis focuses on industrial enterprises employing 10 or more people during the period from 2004 to 2020. This research derives the labor demand function by minimizing the firm's cost function, in accordance with Shephard's Lemma. The findings reveal that value-added and employment levels from the previous period have a greater impact on women's employment compared to other influencing variables.

The distribution of industrial activities, especially in developing countries, is an important research field. Economic reforms and rapid economic growth in many countries in the past few decades have attracted great attention from economists, and many economists have begun to study industrial geographic distribution and regional specialization in developing countries.Considering the importance of this issue in the developing country of Iran, in this research, localization and regional specialization have been calculated and analyzed using the cross-sectional data related to the factory industries of Iran's provinces at the level of ISIC (International Standard Industrial Classification) two-digit codes, 2019. The comparison of localization represents that the spatial distribution of industrial workshops in the provinces has been distributed with the least concentration, however, the employment-generating and value-creating power of these industrial workshops is distributed with greater inequality among the regions. The spatial distribution of research and development costs is also more spatially concentrated. The results of the regional specialization survey indicate that most industrial provinces have industrial diversity and take advantage of different industries. The more industrialized the province, the less regional specialization in limited industries. Moreover, deprived and less developed provinces have low industrial diversity and are more focused on specific industries.

A substantial body of research highlights the presence of social preferences, their economic and political implications, and the varied conditions that influence their effects on the equilibrium and outcomes of human interactions. This study utilizes data from the Global Preferences Survey (GPS) to explore how age and gender impact social preferences across Iran at both national and provincial levels. The findings from a multivariate regression analysis reveal that age positively and significantly influences trust and altruism, while it negatively and significantly impacts negative reciprocity, with no significant effect on positive reciprocity. Gender, on the other hand, shows a significant negative effect on trust, indicating that women tend to exhibit lower levels of trust. Additionally, income and education negatively and significantly impact trust but positively affect altruism and positive reciprocity, with no notable effect on negative reciprocity.
The study also presents a provincial ranking within Iran based on key elements of social preferences: trust, altruism, positive reciprocity, and negative reciprocity. According to the research findings, Iran scores above the global average in terms of altruism, trust, and reciprocity. Notably, Markazi, Lorestan, and Ilam provinces rank highest in trust, altruism, and reciprocity, respectively.

In recent years, with the increased availability of data and statistics, particularly multi-country input-output tables and firm-level microdata, along with advances in the data processing capacity of personal computers for managing these vast datasets, as well as information and communication infrastructure, the efficient shared use of databases for foreign trade analysis has become possible. The goal of this paper is to implement the gross export decomposition method by Borin and Mancini (2023), using a source-based approach and the perspective of the exporting country, as a foundational analysis for decomposing value-added in the gross exports of Iran’s economic activities. The contribution of this paper to the economic literature on Iran can be summarized in the following three aspects: First, it utilizes data from the 2016 inter-country input-output database, including data on Iran, for empirical documentation. Second, it focuses on the most recent theoretical framework presented by Borin and Mancini (2023), with a source-based approach and country perspective, to decompose the value-added in the exports of Iran’s economic activities. Third, it offers a structural interpretation of the value-added decomposition of Iran's exports for the year 2016, which can be useful for researchers and policymakers in understanding the global value chains of Iran’s economic activities. The results show that Iran plays a small and fragile role in the global economy.

The BRICS group, as an emerging economic power, has sought to increase the number of its members and form the BRICS+ coalition, which Iran joined this group from the beginning of 2024. The current research in the theoretical framework of international political economy and using the document analysis method seeks to answer the question, what are the opportunities and challenges facing the Islamic Republic of Iran in joining the BRICS+ group? The hypothesis of the research states that Iran's joining BRICS, in parallel with many opportunities that will be able to be implemented in the foreseeable time horizon, also poses significant threats that it needs to adopt appropriate measures and basic strategies. The findings of the research show that benefiting from the increasing economic power of the BRICS countries and benefiting from alternative financial institutions and systems are considered the most important opportunities. The complexity of the economic integration and cooperation process and the challenge of adjusting trade tariffs are the most important threats facing Iran. Therefore, it is necessary to calculate indicators such as the measurement of comparative advantage, commercial potential, and complementary trade in export and import, which are relevant at the international level, so that the opportunities for Iran's commercial convergence with the BRICS countries are determined and provided to the policy makers for making the necessary decisions. Therefore, it is necessary to adopt realistic, dynamic, comprehensive, and compatible diplomacy with the realities of the country and requires more studies and research in this regard.

The agriculture sector, as a key sector in the national economy, plays an important role in food security and economic development. Iran has a special position in the production of agricultural products with its climatic diversity and unique features, but due to dry and semi-arid weather conditions and scattered rainfall, it faces the problem of water scarcity. This issue has caused the inconsistency between water scarcity and agricultural competitiveness. The main purpose of the present research is to answer the question whether the shadow price of water is effective on the competitiveness of the agricultural sector. For this purpose and in the first stage, using the production function approach, the shadow price of selected Iranian agricultural products (including wheat, rice, potato and corn in selected provinces) was estimated during the period of 2001-2018 (based on the latest available data) and then in the next step, the research question was answered with the approach of system dynamics. The results of the simulation and sensitivity analysis of the model show that by applying the shadow price and increasing the price of water, the demand for water consumption in the agricultural sector is reduced, and with the negative effect on the product performance, the competitiveness of the selected agricultural products is reduced. Based on this and considering the strategic importance of the agricultural sector, water pricing should be done with special sensitivity, but technological and soft measures to save and increase water productivity in the agricultural sector and to improve the optimal cultivation pattern as well as the foreign trade pattern are essential.

One of the most important necessities of every country's economy is to identify the economic sectors with high job creation capacities and at the same time to adopt appropriate policies to create employment and job opportunities. In the meantime, the exhibition industry, as one of the economic activities that plays a significant role in the process of creating and increasing employment, is the focus of this study in order to evaluate the job creation potential of this industry in Iran using the input-output table in 2016. The results of this study showed that the activities: Rental services of machinery and equipment without operator and personal and household goods, other support services, repair and maintenance services of machinery and transport equipment, services related to sewage and waste disposal, environmental health and other services related to environmental protection, police services and fire department, art services, libraries and museums, travel agencies services, residential buildings, other scientific, technical and professional services, government administrative services, and transportation support services have the greatest impact on job creation potential of the exhibition industry.

This study analyzes the impact of government size on the underground economy in Iran with a focus on the role of government budget imbalance. In this study, the Multiple Indicators-Multiple Causes (MIMIC) method was used to estimate the size of the underground economy, which indicates an average of 18.3 percent of this index in Iran's economy. In the present study in addition to the ARDL (symmetric) approach, the NARDL (asymmetric) approach is also uses to examine the relationship between government size and the underground economy. The results of the symmetric estimation indicate that government size has a negative effect on the underground economy; however, this effect is moderated by government budget imbalance. In other words, at higher levels of budget imbalance, the size of the negative effect of government size on the underground economy in Iran becomes less. The asymmetric estimation show that first, The effect of decreases in government size on the underground economy is more than the effect of increases in government size. Second, increase in government budget imbalance reduces the favorable (negative) impact of increases in government size and the unfavorable (positive) impact of decreases in government size on the underground economy. Other findings are that other factors, such as inflation, unemployment, and trade openness, have a positive impact on the underground economy. Also, in recent years, the size of the underground economy in Iran has increased significantly.

The purpose of the current research is to explain the effect of inflation tax on economic welfare in symmetrical and asymmetrical approach. In this way, firstly, economic welfare was calculated using the composite index of welfare based on four dimensions of average flow of consumption, wealth or accumulation of production reserves, income inequality and economic security over five decades. The results of the data description show that after the war and in the 1990s with the adoption of policies for the development of the country, the economic prosperity has increased, and this trend has continued in the 2000s due to the single rate of the exchange rate and creation of currency reserve account. In the 2010s, economic prosperity has decreased due to the intensification of economic sanctions and the increase of inflation and recession. In the next part of the research, the symmetric and asymmetric estimation of the model based on the Linear and Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag model was carried out in the period of 1971-2021. The long-term results of estimating the model in a linear (symmetric) approach indicate that the inflation tax has a negative effect on economic welfare. In the non-linear (asymmetric) approach, this reverse effect was also confirmed, in such a way that increases in the inflationary tax affect economic well-being more than decreases in it. As expected, inflation has a negative and asymmetric effect on economic welfare, so that the inverse effect of increases in inflation on well-being is far more than decreases in it. Another finding is that unemployment has a negative effect and per capita income has a positive effect on economic welfare.

The history of human development shows that tax is a necessity in the economy of countries because it is related to the birth, existence and development of government. Not only is tax an important revenue for a governments budget, but also it is related to economic growth, fair distribution and social stability. For this reason, tax and its determining factors play a prominent role in economic literature. In developing countries due to ever-growing needs of citizens and limited resources, government are facing challenges in fulfilling their developmental programs. This situation is exacerbated by, on the one hand, increasing costs of public services and on the other hand the pressure of public opinions. In such conditions it is highly required to optimize public funds through public policies. Tax revenue mobilization is a major concern in economic policy making in many countries. While some countries have experienced a considerable rise in the rate of tax to GDP, others show little or no increase in long periods of time. In developing countries, it is essential to increase tax revenues in order to provide funds for public investments and public services. In recent years, governments and international institutions have been more interested in increasing  tax capacities. this shows  they have realized that tax capacity is the core of state building and development.
 

Deferent variables may differ from country to country due to the level of development, economic structure and the role natural resources play in government revenue. As tax behaviors highly tend to follow asymmetric and non-linear patters, it is of great significance for policy makers to investigate the existence of these effects in asymmetric patterns. In other words, in high levels of tax revenue, the effect and even the sign of effective variables on tax revenue may be different from that of low levels of tax revenue. These results show beneficial resolutions which help policy makers to determine the optimal tax revenues. Regarding this issue, the aim of this study is to analyze the asymmetric effects of influential factors on tax revenue during 1360-1398 with quantile regression approach.In this article, quantile regression was used to analyze the model. One of the mast important advantages of this method is the deep and thorough insight into response variables. In other words, quantile approach offers a model which makes it possible for variables that influence the dependent variable to interfere not only in the data center of gravity, but also in all distribution sections including its initial and final sequences.Since quantile regression is capable of creating  models for any kind of quantile, it is more resistant to outlier data and heterogeneity than other methods. Prior to model estimation, the volume of underground economy was estimated through , MIMIC so that the related data enters the research model. That was because underground economy is a hidden variable which is not registered in official statistics and there is not any time series about it. Structural equation model shows the relationship between hidden variables and observed variables as well as observed causes which are called MIMIC.
export can be useful.

The results of model estimation show that per capita income has a positive and significant effect on tax revenues. As the model is logarithmic (except for the variable of inflation rate), the effect of coefficients is the concept of tax revenue elasticity. The results of different quantiles include important tips. In low quantiles of tax revenues per capita income or its elasticity on tax revenue has more effect on tax revenue than in high quantiles. In other words, when the government is earning low levels of tax, increasing per capita income has more effect on tax revenues. These results show that in a period when tax revenues decline, governments efforts to improve economic situation and business increase employment, expand production and increase tax revenues. Similar results have been obtained for added value of industry sector in low quantiles of tax revenue, the effect of added value of industry sector on tax revenues is more than that in high quantiles. Increasing added value of industry sector through expanding industrial products increases the exportation of industrial goods and it consequently increases tax revenues. On the other hand, added value of service sector has insignificant effect on high levels of tax revenues and only in low levels of tax revenues its effects are significant in 90% of confidence level. Furthermore, the effect of added value of agriculture sector is insignificant on tax revenue. Foreign trade has a positive and significant effect on tax revenue. Foreign trade growth and imposing tax on import and export increase tax revenue. This effect is more in low levels of tax revenue. Trade is one of the most important sectors that increases tax revenue. By imposing tax on exportation and importation of different goods governments earn huge amount of tax. Oil  revenue has a negative effect on tax revenues. The effect of underground economy on revenues is also negative and significant. This effect is strengthened particularly in case of high levels of tax revenue. Inflation rate has significant effects on tax revenues only in high quantiles of tax revenue. Finally, the effect of government expenses on tax revenues is also positive and significant. This effect is stronger in low levels of tax revenues. Increasing government expenses in different sectors ca have positive effects on production volume as well as increasing employment. Increasing government  expenses leads to increasing tax revenue through income tax on production and business. Following the process of quantile method, in the next stage after estimating the effects, they must be investigated to be determined as symmetric or asymmetric for this purpose, the test suggested by Newey and Powel (1987) was used. The result of this test showed that the effects of GDP per-capita, added value of industry sector, foreign exchange rate and oil revenues are asymmetric. Other variable in this research had symmetric effects on tax revenues.

Due to considerable tax revenues governments earn from foreign trade (Export and Import), they can concentrate on open-trade policies because optimal open trade can have a positive effect on tax revenue. It also can reduce underground economy. Not only do such measures help the country to called tax through import and export, but also, they contribute to economic growth and improving infrastructures. Consequently, tax revenue would increase.  On the other hand, the government should enhance economic reconstruction in order to archive industrialization, renovation and increasing the effect on GDP and consequently earn more tax revenue. Moreover, technology transfer, increasing management capabilities through importing modern machinery, advanced technology and achieving management skills of foreign.

The sacrifice ratio, a concept introduced by Ball (1994), measures the economic cost of reducing inflation. It represents the percentage of output lost for every one-percent decrease in the inflation rate. Inflation not only impacts production but also significantly shapes consumption patterns and spending distribution, particularly in societies with wide income disparities.This study examines the sacrifice ratio in Iran from 1984 to 2022. It focuses on the relationship between inflation and the share of per capita gross expenditures for each income decile. First, periods of inflation reduction were identified. Then, the sacrifice ratio for each period was calculated using Ball's technique.The results reveal an inverted U-shaped relationship between the sacrifice ratio and income deciles. For the first to seventh deciles, the sacrifice ratio is positive, indicating that disinflation reduces their share of per capita gross expenditures. Conversely, for the eighth to tenth deciles, the sacrifice ratio is negative, meaning their share of expenditures increases during disinflation periods.Notably, the fifth decile experiences the greatest decline in its expenditure share as a result of disinflation, while the tenth decile sees the largest increase. These findings underscore how disinflation policies can disproportionately affect different income groups, highlighting the importance of addressing income inequality in economic planning.

The purpose of this research is to investigate the convergence of housing prices in the provinces of Iran using the Markov switching nonlinear unit root test along with the generalized Dickey - Fuller unit root test between 1993 and 2021. The results of the Dickey-Fuller test show that housing prices do not converge, while the Markov switching nonlinear unit root test confirms the validity of this theory in some periods of Iran's economy. According to the results obtained in the boom regime (housing price increase conditions), there is convergence in housing prices, but there is no convergence in the recession regime (housing price decrease conditions). The result obtained from the nonlinear test seems to be expected.This case could be considered as temporary due to inflationary conditions and high inflation expectations, the decrease in housing prices, and there is an expectation of a housing price increase in a short time, and therefore prices do not decrease rapidly. According to the results of the research, the use of policy tools specific to each region and province can provide better management in controlling the fluctuations of the country's housing market. The adoption of complementary policies to stabilize housing prices may also be appropriate

Natural disasters are unpredictable events that disrupt the economic system of affected regions by impairing production, consumption, and employment, leading to immediate negative impacts on national output. In this context, eco-innovation is proposed as a key solution to mitigate the losses from natural disasters and enhance societal resilience. Eco-innovations can reduce disaster risks and improve overall quality of life. The aim of this study is to examine the role of eco-innovation in the relationship between natural disasters and GDP per capita in Iran. To achieve this, the Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) estimation approach was employed to analyze data from 1980 to 2022. The results indicate that eco-innovation positively affects GDP per capita, while natural disasters and the interaction variable (disasters and innovation) have a negative impact. Additionally, the findings suggest that innovation helps reduce the severity of the impact of disasters on GDP per capita. Furthermore, the study reveals that economic sanctions negatively affect GDP per capita, while factors such as labor, physical capital, and trade liberalization have a positive effect.

The topic of welfare and its improvement is an important issue in different societies. According to the existing literature, there are multiple factors that affect the welfare status of countries, one of which is production and its fluctuations (boom and recession). Considering the important impacts of production on the economic welfare of the country, the present study aims to explain the impact of production and, more precisely, that of increases (economic boom) and decreases (economic recession) in production on welfare in Iran. Indeed, this analysis deals with production with and without oil. The main question in the present study is whether there is a significant difference between the impacts of economic boom (increases in production with or without oil) and economic recession (decreases in production with or without oil) on welfare in the Iranian economy.

Most of the models in econometrics are based on linear (symmetric) models. In a symmetric estimate of the production effects (with or without oil), if economic welfare increases by 1 unit with an increase in production, then economic welfare will decrease by 1 unit with a decrease in production. However, what actually happens may not be this way, and the effect of increases in production (economic prosperity) on welfare may be different from the effect of decreases in production (recession). Therefore, the focus of a research model is to distinguish the effect of increases in production (with or without oil) from the effect of decreases in it. The model used in this study is based on the one proposed by Shin et al. (2014). That study discusses the issue of the asymmetrical coefficient of an influential factor and its effect on the dependent variable in the conditions of prosperity and recession. Shin’s team introduces a model called Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) regression model. In the present study, among the various welfare indices, the IEWB index has been considered as a measure of economic welfare. Multiple variables are also used to calculate this index. The IEWB index considers economic welfare as a function of the dimensions of effective per capita consumption flow, net social accumulation of wealth and resource-generating sources, economic inequality, and insecurity. In this regard, weights are considered for each of these dimensions in a special way. Therefore, the weights assigned to each dimension will be different based on different observations. The spatial scope of this study includes Iran, and the temporal scope is from 1971 to 2021.

The movement trend is an indicator of economic well-being, showing that the index followed a downward trend after the revolution until the end of the war. After the war, the index had an upward trend with a gentler slope compared to the years before the revolution. It reached its highest level in 2017 and then started to decline again. This decrease is due to the increase in the sanctions on the Iranian economy, which led to a decrease in oil revenues, a decrease in economic growth, and an increase in the inflation rate, resulting in a decline in economic well-being. The results of the estimate are as follows:- In the short term, the effect of oil economic prosperity on well-being is almost more than 2.5 times the effect of economic prosperity without oil.- In the short term, the effect of oil economic recession on well-being is greater than the effect of economic recession without oil.- In the short term, the asymmetry in the impact of economic prosperity and recession (both with and without oil) on well-being is confirmed.- In the long term, considering the direct effect of economic prosperity and recession (with and without oil) on well-being, the asymmetry of production effect (with and without oil) is also confirmed. But, unlike the case in the short term, in the long term, the effect of economic recession without oil on well-being is greater than the effect of oil economic recession.- In the long term, the effect of oil economic recession on well-being is more than twice the effect of oil economic prosperity, and the effect of economic recession without oil on well-being is almost 5 times the effect of economic prosperity without oil.

Conclusions and policy implications: 

Based on the results of this research about the impact of economic prosperity and recession on the well-being in Iran, it is suggested that, first, the government should create the necessary infrastructure to improve the people's well-being so that the prosperity periods can be prolonged. Second, economic policymakers should adopt supportive policies, especially for producers, to improve the country's well-being during recessions. Third, it seems that, if the Iranian economy moves towards non-oil dependence, in times of economic recession, there will be a need for stronger welfare policies by the government to compensate for the lost well-being. If there is more extensive support for non-oil sectors, they may be able to contribute to increased well-being during prosperous times.

Foreign trade has a substantial impact on economic welfare and various economic indicators, including growth and consumer welfare. The primary objective of this research is to examine and explicate the impact of foreign trade on economic welfare in Iran. For this aim, the research model was estimated in two forms using a distributed lag autoregressive approach from 1973 to 2022. In addition to exports and imports, the economic openness index was used to measure foreign trade, and a composite welfare index was employed to calculate economic welfare. The results of this study according to the two indexes of international trade, indicate that a positive impact of the international trade on the welfare, and the favorable effect of exports on welfare is considerably higher than the favorable influence of imports. The terms of trade as a percentage of GDP, oil and gas exports, and real GDP per capita have a positive effect on welfare, whereas inflation mitigates the welfare. According to the findings, while emphasizing the curbing of inflation and implementing strategies to improve the business environment, such as boosting non-oil exports, attracting foreign investment, removing non-tariff barriers, and stabilizing exchange rates, it is recommended that export policies should be given a higher priority compared to import ones to enhance economic welfare.Foreign trade has a substantial impact on economic welfare and various economic indicators, including growth and consumer welfare. The primary objective of this research is to examine and explicate the impact of foreign trade on economic welfare in Iran. For this aim, the research model was estimated in two forms using a distributed lag autoregressive approach from 1973 to 2022. In addition to exports and imports, the economic openness index was used to measure foreign trade, and a composite welfare index was employed to calculate economic welfare. The results of this study according to the two indexes of international trade, indicate that a positive impact of the international trade on the welfare, and the favorable effect of exports on welfare is considerably higher than the favorable influence of imports. The terms of trade as a percentage of GDP, oil and gas exports, and real GDP per capita have a positive effect on welfare, whereas inflation mitigates the welfare. According to the findings, while emphasizing the curbing of inflation and implementing strategies to improve the business environment, such as boosting non-oil exports, attracting foreign investment, removing non-tariff barriers, and stabilizing exchange rates, it is recommended that export policies should be given a higher priority compared to import ones to enhance economic welfare.