delphi method

The prevalence of endowment culture in Islam is an important and widespread discussion. Also, the role of endowment as a civil matter arising from Islamic knowledge and high culture in economic, cultural, and social development and organizing the issues and problems of society is not hidden from anyone. The purpose of the present study is to present an applied model of participatory endowment using the Delphi method. The research method is descriptive-analytical in nature and in terms of method, and it was conducted using the Delphi method and using books, magazines, articles, and documents with a qualitative approach. Qualitative content analysis was used to analyze the data and structural-interpretive modeling was used to validate the components of the model. This study has an interpretive approach in terms of philosophy and is developmental in terms of orientation. The research findings showed that the most effective motivations of endowments are religious motivations (God's pleasure, reward in the hereafter), serving others, building hospitals, and spreading science and knowledge in society.

The curriculum of any educational system plays an important role in the progress of its goals. Therefore, the main goal of the current research is to examine the model of the storytelling curriculum based on the integrated approach.

The present research method is a mixed method. In this way, the questionnaire made by the researcher (based on the opinions of teachers and curriculum planners) was given to 18 curriculum specialists to use the Delphi method to determine the questions of the final questionnaire and the components and model of the storytelling curriculum. to be identified based on the integrated approach of the students of the first year of elementary school. Then, using a quantitative method, the questionnaire data was analyzed from 180 teachers and lesson planning experts in Kerman, who were selected by cluster sampling method, using structural equation method.

The results of the Delphi phase showed that the story-telling curriculum model based on the integrated approach of first-year elementary students is in accordance with Hawkins' seven-stage model of conceptual construction, recognition, content, learning experiences, implementation, evaluation, and maintenance. It is a program.

The analysis of structural equations also confirmed the fit of the model and showed that the components are not independent of each other and influence each other.

Due to the progress and development of military industries and the increasing complexity of defense systems and products, the complexity of designing and manufacturing these products has also increased. Therefore, in order to maintain the competitive advantages of the organization (including increasing quality, reducing time, maintaining knowledge-oriented approaches, and reducing the cost of products), the integrated management of the product development process during its life cycle is of great importance. The purpose of this research is to design an integrated and adapted systems engineering model for the development of products of a defence organization and its implementation to manage the life cycle of a complex defense system. This model, tailored to the specifics of the desired organization and its type of projects, provides a specific format and framework for the different stages of the product life cycle. The specifications and contents of all documents related to each stage are aligned with systems engineering standards. Another feature of the model presented in this research is the design and implementation of an effectiveness measurement system using key performance indicators. The results of the implementation of the systems engineering model in the product development process indicate a relative improvement in key performance indicators of project realization time (9%) and cost (6%).

The objective of this study was to design a green human resource management (HRM) model with an emphasis on quality management systems in Ardabil hospitals.

This research was conducted as a developmental and descriptive study in two stages: Delphi and survey. In the first stage, the statistical population consisted of hospital managers and staff from Ardabil University of Medical Sciences, selected through purposive sampling with a sample size of 30. In the second stage, the population included hospital clients with a minimum of a high school diploma, and random sampling was applied to 384 participants. Data collection tools were researcher-made questionnaires, consisting of open and closed questions in the first stage and only closed questions in the second stage. Data were analyzed using a two-round Delphi method in the first stage and confirmatory factor analysis with Smart PLS software in the second stage. Convergent and divergent validity methods were employed to ensure validity, and Cronbach's alpha, homogeneity reliability, and composite reliability were used to assess reliability.

The findings showed that the green HRM indicators with an emphasis on quality management systems in Ardabil hospitals include the dimensions of standards, green service compensation, accountability, green attitude, green recruitment, green leadership, and requirements. These dimensions had a significant impact on green HRM. In the second stage, 32 final indicators were evaluated, and the conceptual model of the study showed a good fit.

The results of this study suggest that green HRM, with an emphasis on quality management systems in Ardabil hospitals, can contribute to improving performance and sustainability in healthcare by identifying and implementing the identified indicators.

Today, nature tourism activities are in significant demand with the aim of benefiting from natural elements and preserving nature along with providing economic benefits to local communities. The nature tourism process is dependent on the desired performance of the nature tourist, the host local community and the nature tourism tours. The continued development of nature tourism activities requires assessing the sustainability of nature tourism tours and understanding visitor satisfaction to ensure long-term sustainability in natural ecosystems. Accordingly, in the present study, a list of indicators was presented to evaluate the sustainability of nature tourism tours and their importance in the development of sustainable nature tourism in Khamir-Qeshm mangrove forests. For this purpose, 76 suggested indicators were identified and prioritized using Delphi questionnaire and analyzing experts' viewpoints. The obtained results indicate the importance of responsible tour performance towards ecotourists and also maintaining quality of the natural environment by increasing awareness and training of the ecotourists before visiting nature. The results of the indicators ranking also revealed that the highest priority is related to the environmental awareness course before the trip" and among the final coefficients, the highest rank is assigned to "managed consumption of drinking water". Likewise, 14 indicators were identified and selected as the best indicators with the highest rank. The list of identified indicators can help to identify the ideal nature tourism tours, as well as to evaluate the sustainability of their performance to obtain the satisfaction of local communities, the lasting experience of the nature tourist from the trip, and also the development of sustainable nature tourism in the mangrove forests of Khamir-Qeshm. The list of provided indicators is of great use and importance not only for the studied area, but also for other nature destinations that have the ability to develop nature tourism and conduct nature tourism tours

In this research, a conceptual model for identifying and prioritizing the factors affecting the success of gas projects in the South Pars field in Iran using a multi-criteria decision-making approach and foundational data theory is presented. For this purpose, first, using the Delphi method, Paying attention to the technical challenges and contractual requirements of the project and ensuring customer satisfaction, Paying attention to the challenges in decision-making in the project closing phase and headquarters challenges, the support of senior managers and management. Release of guarantees, proper management of resources and risk management, correct planning and no change in the organization's strategy and attitude during the closing phase, having a coded operational plan for transfer and operation and updating the organization's current information management system, the desired performance of stakeholders and its effects on the quality of the launch. Then, using the best-worst method, while determining the best and worst criteria, the index of attention to the project completion phase and the consequences of the facility operation period are considered as the best criteria and the index of proper resource management and risk management are considered as the worst criteria. Finally, the importance of the criteria has been calculated. The second variable is the measure of technical challenges and contractual requirements of the project and ensuring customer satisfaction on the success of offshore gas projects is ranked first using the best-worst method with a weight of 0.219.

The present study was conducted with the aim of designing an appropriate model for organizational empowerment of small and medium enterprises in Ardabil province. The study is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical method is used; The statistical population of the research in the Delphi stage of managers and owners of small and medium businesses in the province and university professors. 40 people were selected as the expert team and for the analysis of the initial data, the analysis of the Delphi three-period method was used using the Kendall coordination coefficient. Also, for the structural model analysis, the T-value coefficients were used. LISREL software was used in the software environment. Initially, experts identified indicators based on their inference from the model, and after removing duplicates, 40 types of indicators remained. Among the remaining indicators, indicators with low and moderate importance coefficients were removed and finally 31 indicators remained in the analysis. These indicators are based on the opinion of experts in the following dimensions: 1. Education (5 indicators); 2. Information (8 indicators); Trust (15 indicators) and reward (3 indicators) of their classification and significant impact were proved by organizational empowerment of small and medium enterprises using T-value coefficients. Also, based on the research findings, the index of "increase in physical capital and human capital (skilled labor)" with an average of 4.93 in the first place, and the index of "flexibility in the firm" with an average of 2.41 in the thirty-first place. According to the results of this study and based on the obtained indicators, expert human resources and investment in human resources have the greatest effect on the empowerment of small and medium enterprises, and it is suggested that the final model of empowerment obtained in this study for small and medium enterprises of Ardabil province be used.

The main objective of this research is to design and present a comprehensive model for evaluating public policies in the tourism industry in Iran, aiming to fill part of the knowledge gap in this area.

Design/ methodology/ approach: 

From the audience's point of view, this research is foundational, and in terms of attitude, it is mixed (qualitative and quantitative), employing non-interventional measures. The qualitative stage involved reviewing relevant literature and conducting semi-structured interviews with experts and specialists in the tourism field. The Delphi method was used in three stages to derive basic and key concepts until categories reached theoretical consensus and an appropriate framework was established. In the quantitative stage, the derived framework was tested, and the proposed model for evaluating policy-making in Iran's tourism industry was compiled and presented through data processing and analysis based on questionnaire results. The statistical population includes tourism experts and specialists, with 21 individuals chosen as the sample. According to the findings, the main elements of the model were identified in five dimensions (problem recognition, compilation, legitimation, implementation, and final evaluation) encompassing 44 concepts related to 14 categories, leading to the design of the comprehensive model.

The results indicated that the most important measures for evaluating each of the five dimensions of public tourism policies in Iran are as follows: addressing the main issue of tourism (average score of 2.33), rationality of tourism policies (average score of 2.17), public acceptance of tourism policies (average score of 1.60), practical obligation of tourism policy implementers (average score of 2.26), and consistency in evaluating tourism policies (average score of 2.12). The most significant stages influencing the evaluation of public tourism policies in Iran are legitimizing tourism policies (average score of 3.50) and implementing tourism policies (average score of 3.36). Results from examining the research conceptual framework using AMOS software and goodness-of-fit indices of the confirmatory factor analysis model for evaluating public policies in Iran's tourism were deemed acceptable based on GFI, AGFI, CFI, CMIN/df, and RMSEA statistical tests.

Limitations & Consequences :

One limitation of this research is the broad scope of tourism, which includes various types such as cultural, educational, recreational, commercial, therapeutic, social, athletic, religious, and political. Each type, besides its general and common indices, requires specific measures for policy evaluation, which exceeds the objectives of this research and presents limitations. Addressing these specific measures requires further independent research, which is recommended for future studies.

The findings of this research, in addition to expanding the theoretical domain, may enhance the applied knowledge of tourism development and improve the performance of tourism regions. They also provide a basis for high-level managers to prioritize the importance of evaluating public policy-making in Iran's tourism sector. Based on the results, the primary priority in evaluating public policies in Iran's tourism industry is the "policy legitimizing stage." Therefore, one practical implication of this research is that policymakers should consider the necessary frameworks for legalizing and legitimizing tourism public policies in regulating and approving upstream documents. Using the model presented in this research, the existing process of public policies in Iran's tourism industry can be evaluated. Furthermore, continuing this research could model and test desirable conditions for tourism industry policy-making in Iran. Given that the evaluation of the policy implementation stage is the second priority in the process of evaluating public policies in Iran's tourism industry, providing an effective mechanism for the precise implementation of Iran's tourism industry policies is another practical implication of this research.

Innovation or value of the Article: 

Since there is no specific, appropriate model that conforms to Iran's existing realities in evaluating tourism policies, presenting this model and filling part of the investigational gap indicates the value of this article. Generalizing tourism policy evaluation to all stages of the policy-making process, rather than focusing solely on final evaluation, demonstrates another aspect of the article's innovation and value. The mixed-method approach and the use of various instruments in designing and presenting a model for evaluating tourism policy contribute to the precision and comprehensiveness of policy evaluation, showcasing another innovative aspect of this research.

Successful succession planning can reduce employee turnover, because employees who see a favorable career ahead of them in the organization are less likely to consider leaving their jobs. Therefore, the aim of the present research is to provide an integrated pattern of managerial succession planning in Iran Tobacco Company. The current research is applied-developmental in terms of purpose. The research strategy is a Delphi survey. First, by using the interpretation of 12 interviews conducted by the experts of Iran Tobacco Company and reviewing the interviews line by line and identifying the conceptual model using the theme analysis method, the Delphi process was completed in four rounds and after the fourth round, an agreement was reached. In this research, the effective factors were identified for the integrated model of managers' succession planning. In this context, 90 code were identified in the form of 10 subcategories and 4 main categories.The results of the research presented an integrated pattern for planning the succession of managers in Iran Tobacco Company, which can be used by managers and researchers.

To explain a framework for managing the risk of transportation in the food industry supply chain, the initial step involves identifying 12 risks that can potentially lead to transportation disruptions, based on the research background. Utilizing the Delphi method and gathering opinions from 15 academic and industrial experts across 3 stages, the risks were ultimately defined. Furthermore, expert opinions were sought to determine solutions to address the identified risks. The grey DEMATEL method was employed to investigate the interaction of risks. The findings revealed that weather problems, natural disasters, insufficient skilled labor/labor strikes, infrastructure capacity, and inflation and exchange rate changes are among the risks that exert a more significant influence on other risks than they are influenced by them. Subsequently, using the grey COPRAS method, the prioritization of solutions to mitigate the identified risks, based on expert opinions, was undertaken. The results indicated that the top-ranked solution is the definition of key performance indicators. Therefore, it is recommended to managers that, in order to establish a robust supply chain and proactively manage risks, they should identify stakeholders and critical processes. Afterward, an agreement on the financial flow in each situation should be obtained, and a value flow map drawn. This approach enables the implementation of preventive measures to reduce supply chain risk and facilitates the preparation of an emergency plan for unforeseen conditions, thereby enhancing resilience.

Industry 4.0 technologies can increase efficiency, promote the use of full production capacity, reduce costs, and thus improve the profitability of companies. Knowing the factors affecting the adoption of these technologies will greatly help manufacturing companies to invest in this field. This research aims to provide a pattern of adoption of Industry 4.0 technologies in Iran's auto part companies. In order to achieve the goal in this research, a mixed exploratory research method has been used in two stages, qualitative and quantitative. In this way, first, 86 related articles were reviewed using the metasynthesis method and the factors affecting the adoption of Industry 4.0 technologies in industries were identified. Then, in the Delphi phase, with the help of 15 experts in this field, these factors were localized and screened. In the quantitative stage, the data obtained from the analysis questionnaire and the final model were presented using the structural equation modeling approach using the partial least squares method. Based on the results, 38 indicators in the form of 11 dimensions and 4 main factors "organizational", "industrial", "national" and "international" were identified as effective factors on the adoption of Industry 4.0 technologies in Iran's auto part companies.

This research aimed to identify and prioritize psychological factors influencing human resources processes at the preliminary level of the 34000 human resources model. These processes encompass macro and detailed organizational structure design, job analysis and job grading, as well as human resource planning, recruitment, and employee grading.

The research employed a mixed exploratory approach. In the initial stage, a systematic review was conducted to gather qualitative data. Subsequently, a combination of Delphi and fuzzy DEMATEL techniques was employed in the second stage to collect quantitative data. The study's population consisted of all middle and senior managers in an industrial company located in Razavi Khorasan province in 2022. Fourteen of these managers were selected using purposive non-probability sampling. The research instruments included an 18-question Delphi questionnaire to identify psychological factors affecting the preliminary level processes (macro and detailed organizational structure design = 7 questions; job analysis and job grading = 5 questions; human resource planning, recruitment, and employee grading = 6 questions). Additionally, a 16-question fuzzy DEMATEL questionnaire was used to prioritize the psychological factors identified in the third stage of the Delphi process (macro and detailed organizational structure design = 7 questions; job analysis and job grading = 4 questions; human resource planning, recruitment, and employee grading = 5 questions). These questionnaires were designed by the researcher based on the results of the systematic review. Data obtained from the Delphi questionnaire were analyzed using the central index of the mean and the percentage of consensus. The fuzzy DEMATEL method was employed to identify the most influential and influenced psychological factors, with data analysis conducted in Excel software (Excel 2019).

Based on the results of a systematic review of 40 articles published between 2010 and 2022, as well as the outcomes of the third stage of the Delphi questionnaire and the fuzzy DEMATEL questionnaire, the most critical psychological factors affecting the macro and detailed organizational structure design process, in order of importance, included trust in top management, interpersonal trust, perceived organizational justice, perceived organizational support, transformational leadership, job independence, and top management support. The results also indicated that individual growth and development opportunities, the learning climate, interpersonal trust, and transformational leadership were the most influential psychological factors in enhancing the job analysis and job grading process, respectively. Finally, the research findings revealed that psychological factors influencing the human resource planning, recruitment, and employee grading process comprised person-job fit, job identity, perceived organizational justice, organizational reputation, and job meaningfulness.

In conclusion, this research underscores that, alongside the need for physical and organizational structures to facilitate human resources processes, the psychological climate within an organization must also be conducive for the effective execution of these processes. Therefore, organizations seeking to implement the HR 34000 model should consider the psychological factors identified in this study to ensure the model's effectiveness in their implementation efforts

The purpose of this research was to identify and evaluate the opinions of middle managers of the health system in units providing medical services regarding the importance of the proposed components for the competence model of health system managers.
The study population included all the health system managers in lorestan.the questionnaire were distributed among 385 people.The data were collected through the reserchers questionnaire which was used  to  assess the model  proposed  by  applying  library and field studies  (interviewing with   15   person of  health system managers` of iran).The  questionnaire  contains55  questions. It was validated  in terms of  construct validity and  Cronbach alpha was  used to  ensure its internal consistency   reliability.Inferential  statistics  and  LISREL software  was  used  to  analyze  the data  collected  from  the   questionnaire .
The data were analyzed using qualitative research method and Delphi model. The findings of this study led to the identification of 8 components including Strategic Thinking, Perceptual Skills, Service Management, Communication Skills, Ethical Considerations, Accountability, Initiative, Authority and Independence.
The results of this study can be useful model for managers' competence for the Ministry of Health and other institutions in which the competence of managers is of crucial importance.

The purpose of this study is a Knowledge-based administrative system model based on Islamic values by using knowledge management and information integration with the Delphi method. The method of this study, according to the research propositions is descriptive and qualitative which has been done in two stages interview and distribution of Delphi questionnaire and referring to 20 academic experts and executives. Interview data were analyzed by content analysis (theme) and The Atreus Sterling Themes Network was used to identify pervasive themes, organizing themes, and basic themes through coding and also to analyze the questionnaire data from mean, standard deviation, and Kendall coefficient tests were used. The interview data analysis resulted in 7 pervasive themes and 29 organizing themes and 92 basic themes. With two rounds of the Delphi method, the accuracy of components and indicators were identified and their appropriateness was examined and the research model was presented. The most important dimensions of a knowledge-based administrative system based on Islamic values using knowledge management and information integration In order of importance are knowledge management, information integration, government-related factors, environmental factor, organizational factor, infrastructure factor, and individual values factor.

The purpose of this research is to evaluate the organizational marketing and promotion strategies in the wire and cable industry in Delphi. For this purpose, a total of 10 trade experts in the industry consisting of 8 people, the owner, CEO, board of directors, deputy director, marketing and sales director, wire and cable manufacturers in Zanjan province and 2 university professors, held numerous meetings In the first stage of the Delphi method, their expert opinions on the topic of the research were collected in general. After analyzing the topics of the first session, the themes were compared with books and articles and marketing theories, and a questionnaire was finally prepared. In the second stage, using the questionnaire, experts' opinions were re-collected. Statistical tests, fuzzy hierarchy ranking, structural analysis with futuristic perspective, and factor analysis and structural model analysis of the structural equation model were used for data analysis. The findings of this study showed that in the wired and cable industry in Iran, marketing strategy and product diversification are the highest priority selection and personal marketing strategy, multimedia marketing and direct marketing have a significant effect on organizational marketing. According to the findings of this research, it is suggested that the marketing managers of the cable manufacturing and distribution industry, according to the environmental conditions, design and develop appropriate marketing strategies and, according to the chosen strategy, use the promotion appropriate to it.

The main purpose of this research was to identify the problems and inadequacies of the human resource planning system of the Social Security Organization; The current research is a mixed (quantitative and qualitative) research in terms of its practical purpose, and in terms of the method of data collection; Based on this, first the qualitative method of content analysis was used and then the Delphi technique was used in order to obtain the consensus of a group of experts. In this research, the participants were 24 people, consisting of managers of the social security organization specializing in human resources planning and university experts and experts in the field of human resources planning, who were selected using the purposeful snowball sampling method and sampling of desirable cases. In the qualitative part, the data collection tool was a semi-structured interview, and in the quantitative part, it was a questionnaire based on the qualitative part, which was implemented during two stages of a fuzzy Delphi survey. The research findings identified 15 items as the most important problems in the human resources planning system in the social security organization. Based on the level of importance and priority, the lack of a suitable model of human resources planning, the lack of supervision, control and feedback in human resources planning and the inefficiency of the evaluation and evaluation system of employees are considered to be the most important problems of the human resources planning system in the social security organization, which deserve more attention.

 Entrepreneurship plays an important role in the economic growth of countries and job opportunities. The purpose of this study is to analyze the barriers to entrepreneurship development in deprived areas of Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province using Delphi and ANP methods.

 The present research is applied research in terms of purpose and survey-descriptive in terms of nature. The statistical population are the experts of Imam-Khomeini Relief Foundation and entrepreneurs of Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province. Data collection was done in the summer of 2021. The data collection tool is a semi-structured interview and a questionnaire. First, the criteria and sub-criteria related to barriers to entrepreneurship development in deprived areas were identified, and then, using the Delphi method, screening and approval of the identified criteria and sub-criteria were performed. Then, using the ANP method in Super Decision software, the approved criteria and sub-criteria were prioritized.

 The existence of challenges in rural settlements and disadvantaged areas (poverty, unemployment, food insecurity, low welfare, etc.), people's risk aversion and conservatism, difficult access to suitable facilities and financial credits, low teamwork spirit, lack of necessary capital for entrepreneurship, lack of acceptance of promoters' ideas and opinions, low participation of women, were determined as the most important obstacles to entrepreneurship in deprived areas.

 The findings indicate the important role of policy makers in removing the entrepreneurial obstacles through policy making to promote entrepreneurial culture, develop entrepreneurial actions, also review banking, insurance, tax, customs, labor and trade laws, etc. according to requirements of time.

The severity of natural disasters in many rural parts of the country is such that the continuation of the social and economic life of the residents of these areas always faces a crisis. Villages are more vulnerable to natural disasters and hazards due to their traditional structure and texture compared to cities, and every year, natural disasters cause a lot of damage to the country's villages. Therefore, the current research was conducted with the aim of designing and validating a local model for managing natural disasters and accidents in villages in two qualitative (Delphi method) and quantitative stages.

This research is exploratory in terms of purpose and descriptive in terms of type, which was carried out by field method. The sample population of the research, in the qualitative stage, 30 people from the managers of the crisis headquarters of Ardabil province, who were selected purposefully and by the method of chain referral sampling (snowball method). Also in the second stage, based on the Morgan table, there were 384 people from the residents of the villages of Ardabil province with at least A diploma was chosen. The data collection tool in the qualitative stage was an in-depth and semi-structured interview with experts, which was conducted in three rounds using the Delphi method, and in the quantitative stage, the redesigned questionnaire resulting from the first stage was used.

In this research, the extracted indicators, based on the studied variables as well as the results of the third round of Delphi, were categorized into 7 more effetive factors (preparedness, reaction, backlash, evaluation, physical, managerial, restoration and reconstruction) and 32 concepts (open codes).

The results of the research showed that the "evaluation" dimension and the "physical" dimension with a path coefficient of 0.859 have had the greatest impact on the management model of accidents and natural disasters in villages. Finally, by using Smart PLS software, the fit of the obtained model was ensured and all significant relationships were detected.

In an age of rapid change, new skills are required for changing roles in organizations. Competency models provide a tool for what is needed now and in the future. Competencies lead to the productivity and cost reduction of organizations. The role of health system managers in managing the healthcare service delivery system as best as possible has always been emphasized and the selection of the best people for this matter is considered. The purpose of this research was to design a competency model for managers. Finding the effective components in managers' competence was done with a qualitative approach, in which there was no predetermined framework such as theory or model, and this framework was designed based on the collected data. First, a relatively comprehensive understanding of the existing literature in this field was obtained through the study of previous research records, and based on this, a preliminary list of human resource factors affecting the competence of managers was completed and finalized using the Delphi method. For this purpose, 15 managers' competency experts were selected as an expert group using non-probability sampling method and a combination of targeted or judgmental and chain methods. They were analyzed using qualitative research method and Delphi model. The findings of this research led to the identification of 8 components including strategic thinking, perceptual skills, service management, communication skills, ethical considerations, responsibility, power of initiative, authority and independence of action.