consumption

The purpose of this research is to investigate the impact of shock of budget deficit, public sector debt and government financing methods on the economic welfare index (with an emphasis on the consumption and wealth components) using the Structural Vector Autoregressive Model and annual data over a period of time from 1371 to 1401 S.H. The results indicate that in the long term, the budget deficit has no effect on the consumption and wealth index, the effect of public sector debt (government debt to the country's banking system, including borrowing from the central bank, banks and credit institutions) on the consumption index is negative and on the wealth index is positive. The effect of money issuance and liquidity growth on the consumption and wealth index is negative, the effect of government financing through the issuance of bonds on the consumption index is positive and more strongly positive on the wealth index. Direct tax on the consumption index has positive effects and tax on wealth and property also has an inverse relationship with the wealth index. The results of the research indicate that the government budget deficit alone does not have an effect on the consumption and wealth index, while the consequences of the budget deficit and financing methods can overshadow consumption and wealth.In recent years, due to the unprecedented increase in liquidity, taxes and inflation rate, the disposable income in Iran has decreased significantly, which can have a negative effect on consumption and wealth on the one hand, and on the other hand, increase the budget deficit and public sector debt. As a result, the study of the subject under investigation is of special importance and necessity at the present time, because the problem of budget deficit and government debt, as well as the severe reduction of economic welfare in Iran, is undeniable. From the examination of the above cases and the resulting results, it is possible to understand the severity of the influence of the economic welfare index and household behavior in Iran in relation to monetary and financial policies. Also, regarding the level of government involvement in Iran's economy and the policies adopted during the period of 1371-1401 and the relationship between them and the trend of the economic welfare index, it obtained significant results.

According to the purpose of this article, the best research method is the use of multivariate (systemic) time series patterns, the self-regression pattern of structural survey (SVAR). The main goal in this model is to use economic theories instead of Cholsky's analysis, so that it is possible to recover structural impulses from the impulses of the resolved form.

The results indicate that the budget deficit variable does not have a significant effect on the consumption index, while public sector debt (the government's debt to the country's banking system) causes a decrease in consumption, money circulation and increased liquidity are also identified as the biggest factors in reducing the consumption level index. became Government financing methods, including direct taxes, have a positive but relatively small impact on the consumption index, and finally, government financing through the issuance of bonds has a relatively small positive effect on the consumption index.Regarding the effects of the above variables on the wealth index, the budget deficit variable has no effect on wealth, public sector debt has had a positive and significant effect on wealth, money circulation and increased liquidity also cause a decrease in wealth, and bond issuance is the most important factor. The level of wealth has increased, while the tax on wealth has an inverse relationship with the amount of wealth.

According to the results obtained in this research, it can be concluded that the government budget deficit alone has no effect on the consumption and wealth index, while the consequences of the budget deficit and financing methods can overshadow consumption and wealth.The increase in the amount of money reduces the value of the national currency and the level of household consumption in Iran, this causes the value of people's assets to decrease as a result of the household's purchasing power, disposable income and consequently consumption. On the other hand, since Iran's economy relies on imports, with the increase in liquidity, the value of the national currency decreases, imported goods become more expensive, the demand for goods and services decreases, and as a result, the level of consumption also decreases.The financing of the government, which is done through creating debt and borrowing from the country's banking system, greatly reduces the level of household consumption. In other words, the country's banking system, which is responsible for providing resources to economic enterprises and households, allocates a large amount of these resources to the government sector, which reduces the share of resources allocated to the private sector, and this reduces the access of enterprises and households. It goes to bank resources in the economy, as a result, production and consumption in the economy decreases.An increase in direct taxes will increase consumption to some extent, and an increase in wealth tax will decrease the amount of wealth. In other words, since there is a progressive tax in Iran, the increase in the tax rate includes most of the households with high income, so the level of consumption of households with high income is reduced to some extent and their wealth is also reduced, the government is considering acquiring resources. As a result of taxes, income and transfer payments are distributed to the weaker sections, as a result, since these sections include a large share of the country's population, it leads to an increase in the level of household consumption in the country.

Considering the two characteristics of real estate, including consumption and capital characteristics, the total demand of the housing sector can be divided into consumer and investment demand. Different policies can have different effects on each component of housing demand. In this study, using the iran's seasonal data of 1380-1400 and the stochastic dynamic general equilibrium approach, the effects of monetary and financial policy as well as the oil price shock on housing demand were investigated. The results show that investment demand can explain housing price fluctuations better than consumer demand. For example, while expansionary fiscal policy increases both types of consumption and investment demands; Contractionary financial policy causes a decrease in consumer demand and an increase in capital demand for housing. When the economy is booming, the housing market fluctuates. As the fluctuations in the housing market increase, the share of investment in housing increases, and this indicates that housing applicants tend to give more weight to the investment value than the value. Provide consumption that may cause the formation of a housing bubble. In the end, some reasonable policy proposals are presented in the field of price control.

Discretionary fiscal policy refers to discretionary changes in taxation, spending, or other financial activities by the government in response to economic events or changes in economic conditions. The adoption of this policy, if it is not in line with the stability of fluctuations, can leave negative effects on economic variables.The purpose of this research is to investigate the effects of discretionary fisical policy on private consumption and investment in Iran. For this purpose, first, the fiscal response function in Iran during the period 1357-1401 was estimated according to the model of Fataz and Miho (2003 and 2006) using the 2SLS-IV approach, and then through this function, discretionary financial policies are extracted and analyzed. According to the fiscal policy rule, the fisical policy in Iran has been pro-cyclical behavior the period under review. Also, by extracting the discretionary fiscal policy from the fiscal policy rule and examining its effects using the GMM approach, the existence of the Crowding-Out effect in consumption and investment has been confirmed, the adoption of discretionary fiscal policy in Iran has driven the private sector from investing in this sector and also reduced household consumption, and therefore can have a destructive effect on economic growth.

This study, using the dynamic planning approach and using the statistics and information obtained from the cost and income of Iranian households in the theoretical framework of the life cycle theory of Modigliani and Brumberg (1954), examines the consumption and income profile of the life cycles of Iranian households in the form of two versions. "Certainty Equivalent " and " Buffer stock " (which is equivalent to consumption under uncertainty) from Friedman's theory of permanent income and separate different educational groups and occupations. The results of this study show that in all of these profiles, consumption and income profiles follow entirely each other before the age of 45; In this way, it can be claimed that the CEQ theory is valid until the age of 45 and can explain the consumption and income profile of Iranian households well. The changes in the consumption behavior of Iranian households after the age of 45 show the change in preferences and the uncertainty of future incomes, so the profile of consumption and income after the age of 45 can only be explained with models that also consider uncertainty . Other results of this study show that Iranian households save up to the age of 45 with a "precautionary" motive; After the age of 45, the precautionary motivation to save is weakened, and with the change of preferences and the type of uncertainty, the motivation to "finance retirement expenses" is strengthened, and after the age of 65, they save with the motivation of inheritance.

Consumption as the most stable variable of GDP, plays an important role in the economy. According to consumption theories, the form of the consumption function in the short and long run changes the coefficients of macro-variables multiplier, This has an effect on how macro policies affect economic variables. In this regard, in the present study, an attempt has been made to empirically test the hypothesis of the ratch effect of Duesenberry consumption using annual time series data of the Iranian economy during the period 1976-2020. For this purpose, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), BMA_ADL and deep learning method LSTM (Long short term memory) has been used. results indicate that this hypothesis is not consistent for Iran. In other words, empirical evidence shows that, contrary to Dusenberry's theory, the slope of the consumption function in the short term is higher than the slope of the long-run function. As a result, the Multiplier coefficient of demand management policies in the short run is more than the long run. This pattern of consumption behavior can be called the precautionary behavior of households, which originates from Iran's economic conditions.

In this paper, the effect of formed habits on consumer behavior was investigated by separating the three effects of generation, age and time (year) by generating a quasi-hybrid data set using the Dayton method. For this purpose, in the field of generations, 14 generations were studied from 1305 to 1995. Concerning time (year), this research investigates over 30 years from 1986 to 2020. The age of the subjects in this study ranged from 16 to 72 years. The results of the analysis of generation effects show that consumption expenditures are increasing with younger generations. The results of the study of the effect of time show the increase of households' consumption expenditure during the years 1986 to 2020 and the somewhat constant trend of the years 1995 to 2015. Results of the effects of age on consumption expenditure pattern confirmed the life cycle pattern.

The purpose of this article is to investigate the effect of religiosity on consumption utility in Isfahan. The data of the article include 423 samples from the fifteen districts of Isfahan, which were studied in individuals aged 18 to 87 years in 1399 using the organized Alport and Ross questionnaire and with the help of cluster sampling. Considering the consequences of accepting the religion of Islam in order to explain the effect of religion on the utility of consumption, in this study, various indicators have been created based on religious affiliation, participation and beliefs. Using Propensity Score Matching Technic (PSM), the results of this study show that active religious participation plays an important role in various aspects of religiosity. In addition, religious identity, religious affiliation, participation in religious ceremonies, and belief in the influence of religion in various aspects of life have had a significant impact on consumer utility. The research findings have been examined from different aspects of consumption utility in relation to the impact of religiosity and the results indicate the positive effect of religiosity on consumption utility.

The purpose of this article is to investigate the impact of electricity tariffs in the domestic and industrial sectors on electricity consumption and macroeconomic variables. In this regard, statistical data for the period 1991-2020 based on seasonal frequency and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium approach (DSGE) have been used. In this study, it is assumed that there is a section in the household and enterprise section called the electricity sector subsidy. The scenario designed in this study is that in terms of a pattern of electricity consumption, electricity tariffs for high-consumption subscribers in the domestic and industrial sectors will increase. The results showed that with the price shock, the amount of electricity consumption in the domestic sector has decreased more than the industrial sector. In addition, the price shock has led to an increase in investment, GDP and consumption at the macroeconomic level. In fact, in terms of price effect and income resulting from this policy, the situation of the electricity industry and other macroeconomic variables has improved over a period of 5 years.

Household Consumption Decisions Have a Significant Impact on The Behavior of Macroeconomic Variables in The Short and Long Run. One of The Factors Affecting the Consumption of Households in an Islamic Society Is Zakat, Which Is Established in Islam to Combat Poverty and Acts as a Tool to Redistribute Income and Wealth from The Rich to The Poor and Plays an Important Role In Ensuring Justice and Economic Welfare of Society. In Fact, Zakat Has Various Effects on Macroeconomic Variables, Including Consumption, and Can Play an Important Role in Mitigating Shocks to The Economy and Establishing Economic Stability. The main Purpose of this Study was to Investigate the Effect of Zakat on Consumption Stability in the Iranian Economy using Seasonal Time Series Data During the Period 1379 to 1396. To this end, a new Keynesian Stochastic Dynamic General Equilibrium (DSGE) Model in a Closed Economy is Defined for the Iranian Economy as an Islamic Country with an Emphasis on Zakat Payments, and then Compares the Effects of Productivity and Monetary Shocks on Consumption in The two systems of conventional economics and Islamic economics are discussed. The Results Show That the Islamic Economic System (With Zakat) Has Been Able to Absorb Economic Shocks and Smooth Consumption Fluctuations in the Iranian Economy and Zakat Can Act as an Automatic Economic Stabilization Tool. Also, by Reducing the Consumption of Zakat Givers and also Increasing the Consumption of Zakat Recipients, it is Concluded that Zakat Improves the Income Distribution and Reduces the Class Gap in Iran.

Consumption is a dynamic process that is inextricably linked to lifestyle and may be considered the most important aspect among the variables and components of modern citizens' lifestyles. This article investigates and categorizes the consumption patterns of Iranian urban families. Our hypothesis is that consuming is a dynamic process, which we illustrated by utilizing the systems dynamics method through Vensim software capabilities. We established the problem and presented our dynamic hypothesis inside it while using this program to execute dynamic modeling procedures. Then, after investigating the many parts of the problem, and while recognizing the effective variables and developing a subsystem diagram, we give a causal loop diagram to explain the currents in this model. In the next step, we created nine scenarios by sketching a state-flow diagram and modeling. These scenarios were generated using the sensitivity analysis approach, from which we gathered data on the consumption patterns and lifestyles of urban families in Iranian society, and finally, we presented ideas and suggestions. Except for biological consumption, which is naturally the first priority of consumption among urban families, the results of this article and the derived model show that the situation of other consumptions is nearly the same, and the curves of media consumption and cultural consumption are higher than other costs. This means that when the economy improves, such consumption will rise even more.

The demand for smuggled goods is one of the considerable reasons in the study of the causes of smuggling is. It must be pointed out that demand for smuggled goods is rooted in the level and pattern of consumption in society. The level and composition of the demand for smuggled goods in Iran, as a part of the country’s consumption expenditures have always been growing over the past years, which links the entry of smuggled goods into the country with consumption and the shape of the consumption pattern in the society. Looking at the performance of Iran’s economy reveals that as the level and pattern of consumption in the country changes, the demand for foreign goods - both through official and unofficial imports – increases. This study, using a descriptive-analytical method and a statistical view as well as considering the changes in the consumption pattern in the country over the past years, shows that several factors such as the increase in international relations, the increase in the amount and share of oil revenues in the gross domestic revenue and government budget revenues, the growth of liquidity, the disruption in the distribution of income and wealth in the country, the country’s foreign exchange and trade policies have had aligned relationship with the formation of exogenous consumption patterns and the increase in demand for foreign goods. On the other hand, the application of trade restrictions by the government has imposed limitations on the entry of demanded goods into the country through official methods, therefore, such goods are imported into the country through unofficial channels and smuggling.

Eghtesad-e-Moghavemati, as a pattern which ensures the solidity and strength of the internal structure of the economy, and an indirect reinforcement of other sectors, must be realized in all key economic segments especially in the consumption segment. Consumption, as one of the key factors in which is being used to oppose the Islamic Republic of Iran in the course of sanctions and other kinds of economic assaults, has been the target of different attacks. It is because that the consumption segment has a central role in influencing people’s livelihood, and the separating people from the state body. Therefore, the components of the consumption pattern should be extracted and numbered to contribute to the consolidation of the economy and its insurance against internal and external impacts. In this paper, using documentary and library methods of research, the basic components of Eghtesad-e-Moghavemati are adapted in the consumption segment, based on the Supreme Leader’s statements and regarding the ruling strategies of Eghtesad-e-Moghavemati, and the general pattern has been extracted in the framework of the Eghtesad-e-Moghavemati. In fact, the strategical components of consumption pattern in this study are obtained through multiplying the consumption concept into the strategical components of Eghtesad-e-Moghavemati
 

By the appointment of the slogan “protecting Iranian products” as the axial slogan of the year 1397, the Supreme Leader brought the economic confrontation into a new phase by re-emphasizing on the most essential economic strategy of the Islamic Revolution that is “faithful protection from national production”. His Majesty’s protection consists of different dimensions such as “state-protection from Iranian products”, “producing high-quality and competitive products by Iranian manufacturers” and “fanaticism of the Iranian consumers on Iranian products”, so addressing each of them separately, requires an independent study. In this article, using the documentary-library method as one of the credible methods in the humanities, and by concentration on the concept of “fanatic consumption” as one dimension in protecting Iranian products and as a keyword of the economic discourse of the Islamic Revolution which was introduced by the Supreme Leader, we address this specific type of consumer behavior in the three main speeches of whatness, whyness, and howness. According to the results, the vital requirements of fanaticism in the consumption of Iranian products are “abandoning the materialistic cost-benefit models in our choices”, “making effort in recognizing and introducing the Iranian high-quality products”, “taking symbolic actions in the protection of Iranian products”, “introducing the consumption of foreign-made products as an anti-value”, and “warning others with respect to consuming foreign-made products”, in which all these factors can be recognized as the principal strategies of the Islamic Revolution to encounter the full-scale economic invasion in order to disappoint the enemies in achieving their one of their most important goals i.e. causing widespread unemployment.
 

The continuous growth of the price level in Iran indicates the prices trend is rising. Short-term inflation dynamics and cyclical interaction with actual economic variables are central in macroeconomics, especially monetary policy analysis.

 METHODOLOGY

Given the importance of inflation expectations, this study examines how it is formed by considering comparative and rational inflation expectations. Since the relationship between inflation expectations and consumption has an actual application in determining economic policies, this relationship is examined during the period 1367: 1 to 1395: 4 by considering the logarithm of consumption, logarithm of income, and logarithm of inflation as the research variables. All data sets used in this study are first-order, meaning that they only need to be differentiated once to be stationary. Because among the various consumption models, Friedman has played an essential role in introducing expectations into consumption theory and has talked about hot money. His approach has been used in the model. To model invisible variables such as rational inflation expectations, space-state models that allow unobservable variables to be used both in estimating the model and estimating them in the models are used. In this regard, the Kalman-filter algorithm was used, a powerful recursive method for optimal predictions of invisible variables and efficient estimates of the parameters of space-state models based on mathematical hope. The partial adjustment method has been used to model adaptive inflation expectations. For consistent estimation, methods that consider the endogeneity of variables should be used. Also, because the variables of collaborative research are of the same order, if there is no co-integration relationship between them, their differential form should be used. According to Granger's theorem, there will be an error correction if there is a co-integration relationship between the variables. Proving the endogeneity of associations related to expectations in the economic framework and therefore due to the existence, we estimate the error correction model with the GMM method. 

The results show that the effect of rational inflation expectations on long-run consumption in the Iranian economy is positive and significant. Thus, with a one percent increase in expected inflation, consumption will increase about 6 percent, but there is no significant relationship between rational expectations and consumption in the short term. The effect of comparative inflation expectations on consumption is also positive and significant. Thus, a one percent increase in comparative expected inflation will lead to an increase in consumption of 2 percent. Because in the case of comparative expected inflation, a positive relationship between expected inflation and consumption is confirmed, so that the elasticity of consumption to expected inflation is 2%. In other words, a 1% increase in comparative expected inflation will lead to a 2% increase in consumption.  

In the practical aspect of this research, it can be said that since Iran's economy is in a state of stagflation, (1) Managing inflation expectations through an efficient communication framework with economic factors can transform the retrospective pricing system into a futuristic one and reduce the actual costs of deflation. (2) The policymaker should take measures so that the inflation expectations of the society are not intensified because this issue can stimulate inflation by intensifying consumption and increasing its total demand. Then inflation expectations spread in this direction which has happened regularly in recent years. (3) Also, due to the impact of consumption changes on aggregate demand and aggregate demand on corporate investment decisions, the attention of monetary policymakers and the central bank on controlling inflation expectations is needed more than ever due to its direct impact on consumption. In this regard, policymakers should be careful in implementing their policies not to exacerbate inflation expectations. For example, what policies to enforce (or not) and what policies to implement (or not) play a role in forming positive or negative policies destructive inflation expectations. However, in this regard, expert economic advisors should be consulted on any policy. 4- Also, anti-inflation policies that control inflation have a favorable effect on inflation expectations and are therefore recommended.

One of the problems of Iranian producers is the lack of consumer acceptance of their products and the preference of foreign goods. The purpose of this study is to develop a model for increasing the consumption of domestic goods with a social marketing approach. To design the model, the methodology of qualitative research has been used. For this purpose, the required data were collected using theoretical sampling method and performing 18 semi-structured interviews with senior managers, faculty members and academic experts as well as studying 41 documents. According to the research results, because the problem of preferring foreign goods is rooted in the cultural issues of society, a producer alone cannot solve them and it is necessary for the government to use the social marketing approach to increase the consumption of domestic goods. In social marketing campaigns, both consumers and producers need to be addressed simultaneously. Because just as the Iranian consumer's duty is to buy domestic goods, so the Iranian producer's duty is to produce high quality goods at a competitive price. In order to increase the consumption of domestic goods, educational, promotional and financial tools should be used simultaneously to increase the material and spiritual costs of consuming foreign goods, as well as financial incentives for consumers and domestic distribution channels. On the other hand, the supply of smuggled goods at distribution points must be strongly combated. In order to promote the consumption of domestic goods, in addition to official advertisements, verbal advertisements in the form of popular scans in cyberspace should be used. Increasing consumption of domestic goods will lead to achievements such as economic and political independence, job creation, increasing national wealth, reducing inflation and controlling liquidity.

The economic behaviors of a Muslim consumer is one of the most important social behaviors that affects his personal and social life. One of the most important forms of economic behaviors is consumption. In the consumption area, 7 crucial determinants have been extracted from religious literature. The statistical population is selected from Kabul city and the number of samples is determined by the Cochran formula 384 in the consumption area. The sample information is 95% accurate to the entire statistical population. Data was collected by a questionnaire and analyzed by Excel and SPSS 21 software. In the consumption sector, among the independent variables, most of the relationship is related to the inclusion of the relevant principles of age, education, nature of the occupation and average monthly income of the household. In the beliefs regarding consumption principles, education variables and average monthly household income are more significant rather than other variables. The results show that, on average, 53.4% of the population are followed to principles of consumption, and 50.3% of the community members believe in the principles. The Chi-square test and t single-sample also confirmed the results. In general, more than half of the community is committed to the recommended economic behaviors of Islam in the field of consumption and there is no significant difference between the degree of commitment and the people's belief in the principles of consumption.

One of the main concerns of economic scholars and thinkers is to predict the behavior of individuals in an economic system. Although economists often use complex mathematical equations for economic analysis, in recent decades due to the weakness of forecasting analyses based on equations and inability of such equations to justify empirical events, economists have used modeling and simulation methods. In other words, they are Looking for ways to justify complex phenomena in the economy as a complex system. In addition to applying complexity theory, this research attempts to introduce a research tool to scholars for the simulation of agent-based research. In this study, we will examine the efficiency of each system by developing an agent-based model based on a No-Ponzi economic system and comparing it with a Ponzi economic model. We will also examine the effects and consequences of some economic behaviors that are contrary to the ethics and teachings of Islam. Comparing the two models, the results indicate that the No-Ponzi model has a better human development index and more social welfare.

In a rational expectation utility optimization model, the consumption profile is smoothed over time and, under some simplifying assumptions, it equals a constant fraction of total lifetime income. For this result to hold, the consumer must be able to transfer income from one period to another. Otherwise, the consumer is under liquidity constraints. The liquidity constraint affects the allocation of durable and non-durable consumption. We focus on the relationship between the marginal utility of household durable good stock and the marginal utility of non-durable consumption. When capital markets are perfect, the marginal utility of these two variables always bears an equilibrium relationship. But if liquidity constraints are binding, the difference between the lagged value of these two variables can predict the current growth change in non-durable consumption. We estimate the long-run relationship between these two variables using an error correction model and a pseudo-panel data set based on Iranian Household Expenditure and Income Surveys (HEIS). In the error correction model, the faster the error of the long-run relationship corrects, the lower the liquidity constraint. This coefficient is estimated to be statistically significant and is in [-0.22, -0.30] range in different estimates, thus we can reject the permanent-income hypothesis and accept that capital markets are not perfect in Iran.