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فهرست مطالب نویسنده:

davod mokhtari

  • رضا سلیمانی، خلیل ولیزاده کامران*، داود مختاری، علی سعیدی
    رعایت اصول پدافند غیر عامل در مکانیابی تاسیسات زیر بنایی خصوصا مراکز نظامی می تواند در شرایط خطر و بحران و هر گونه تهدید نظامی موجب کاهش آسیب پذیری و خسارات گردد . عوامل متعددی در این مکانیابی تاثیر گذار می باشند که بخش عمده ای از آنها عوامل جغرافیای طبیعی (اقلیمی و ژیومورفولوژیکی) می باشد . با در نظر گرفتن توسعه شهرها و قرارگیری مراکز نظامی در داخل بافت شهری و عدم رعایت اصول پدافند غیر عامل در جانمایی و ساخت آنها در گذشته و همچنین ضرورت جابجایی اکثر مراکز نظامی موجود در سطح استان در سالهای آیندهاهمیت بررسی موضوع را دو چندان می کند که از اهداف اصلی تحقیق می باشد . در این تحقیق از دو گروه داده استفاده شده است . داده های اقلیمی که از سازمان هواشناسی استان دریافت شده و دیگر داده هاکه از روی نقشه های توپوگرافی و زمین شناسی و سازمانهای مرتبط اخذ گردیده است . در پژوهش حاضر به نقش عناصر آب و هوایی و عوامل موثر دیگر در مکانیابی سایتهای نظامی پرداخته می شود . هدف از شناسایی مناطق مستعد با رویکرد رعایت اصول پدافند غیر عامل می باشد . روش تحقیق در این پژوهش مبتنی بر فرآیند تحلیل شبکه ای(ANP) و تحلیلهایGIS می باشد .بعد از وزن دهی لایه ها و همپوشانی آنها و بررسی اصول پدافند غیر عامل , نقشه نهایی جانمایی تهیه گردید و نتایج حاصل بیانگر آن است که در بین عوامل موثر در مکان یابی مراکز نظامی در منطقه مورد مطالعه، عوامل اقلیمی بیشترین وزن یعنی 34/0 را به خود اختصاص داده اند.
    کلید واژگان: پدافند غیرعامل، مکانیابی، تحلیل شبکه ای ANP، عناصر و عوامل آب و هوایی، آذربایجان شرقی
    Reza Solimani, Khalil Valizadeh Kamran *, Davod Mokhtari, Ali Saeidi
    Adherence to non-operating defense principles in locating infrastructure, especially military centers, can reduce vulnerability and damage in times of danger and crisis and any military threat. There are several factors affecting this location, most of which are natural geographic (climatic and geomorphological) factors. Considering the development of cities and the placement of military centers within the urban context and the lack of adherence to non-operational defense principles in their placement and construction in the past, as well as the need to relocate most of the existing military centers at the provincial level, the importance of the case doubles. One of the main goals of the research is. Two groups of data were used in this study. Climatic data obtained from the Provincial Meteorological Organization and other data obtained from topographic and geological maps and related organizations The present study deals with the role of climatic elements and other effective factors in locating military sites. The purpose is to identify areas that are prone to non-operating defense principles. The strategic position of the East Azerbaijan Province in northwestern Iran in order to align with the Republic of Azerbaijan and Armenia and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic and to position itself on the European and Central Asian communication axis further emphasizes the importance of non-operational defense principles in locating sensitive and military centers. . The research method in this research is based on the Network Analysis Process (ANP) and GIS analysis. After weighting the layers and overlapping them and examining the principles of non-operating defense, the final mapping was prepared and the results show that among the factors Effective in locating military centers in the study area, climatic factors have the highest weight (0.34).
    Keywords: Passive Defense, Location, ANP Network Analysis, Climatic Elements, Factors, East Azerbaijan
  • یونس نیکوخصال*، علی اکبر رسولی، داود مختاری، خلیل ولیزاده کامران

    با توجه به فقدان رودخانه های دایمی به جز رودهای با دبی کم در قسمت جنوب غربی مرند ، تامین آب منطقه اعم از شرب ، کشاورزی ، صنعت و دامپروری وابسته به آبهای زیرزمینی است. از طرفی اقتصاد مردم منطقه بیشتر وابسته به کشاورزی و دامپروری بوده و از آنجایی که آب مورد نیاز در این بخش ، حجم عمده ای از آب مصرفی منطقه را تشکیل می دهد ، لذا لازم است عوامل موثر بر سطح آبهای زیرزمینی منطقه بررسی شود تا ضمن مطالعه تاثیرات این عوامل ، راه های مقابله با کم آبی و افت سطح آبهای زیرزمینی جدی گرفته شود. در این پژوهش روابط بین تغییرات بارش و سطح آبهای زیرزمینی دشت مرند در بازه زمانی 16 ساله از سالهای 1380 تا 1395، با استفاده از روش NRMC مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است . در این روش ضمن محاسبه مقادیر NRMC برای دو شاخص SPI و SWI در منطقه ، منحنی توزیع نرمال شده برای هر دو شاخص در ایستگاه های باران سنجی منتخب و چاه های پیزومتری منتخب رسم شد و معادله رگرسیون خطی و چند متغیره محاسبه شد . نتایج نشان داد که بارش و سطح آبهای زیرزمینی در سالهای مورد بررسی نوسانات زیادی داشته است که البته با توجه به نوسانات بیشتر آبهای زیرزمینی نسبت به بارش ، عوامل انسانی از جمله برداشت بی رویه از چاه ها می تواند عامل تاثیر گذار بر سطح آبهای زیرزمینی دشت مرند باشد. محاسبات نشان داد که مقدار همبستگی برای دو شاخص SPI و SWI در معادله چند متغیره غیر خطی بیشتر از مقدار معادله ی خطی است که بیانگر تاثیر عوامل متعدد دیگر علاوه بر نوسانات بارش بر سطح آبهای زیرزمینی است .

    کلید واژگان: تغییرات بارش، تغییرات سطح آب زیرزمینی، NRMC، SPI، SWI، دشت مرند
    Younes Nikookhesal *, AliAkbar Rasouli, Davod Mokhtari, Khalil Valizadeh Kamran
    Introduction

    The water cycle in nature is directly related to the climate of that region. Reasonable and correct use of water resources requires accurate quantitative and qualitative knowledge and collection of appropriate climate data and information. Depletion of groundwater reservoirs, drying of canals and springs and even semi-deep wells and reduction of deep well discharge, change of groundwater flow direction, salinization of aquifers, salinization of soil due to irrigation with saline water, barren The emergence of fields, soil erosion, etc. has put most of the plains of the country at risk of further desertification (Tavousi, 2009: 14).Atmospheric precipitation is the main source of surface and groundwater and the study area is poor in terms of atmospheric precipitation and its amount is between 150 to 450 mm per year, which varies in plain and mountainous areas. The climate of the region is semi-arid and cold and is mostly influenced by the Mediterranean climate. Due to the fact that groundwater is the most important source of water consumption in the study area, the impact of climate change, especially precipitation on the water table of wells in the area was investigated in this study.

    Materials and methods

    To study the trend of groundwater level changes in Marand plain, water table data of 23 piezometric wells and data of 8 rain gauge stations during the last 16 years of 1395-1395 were used. After using the correlation matrix method to select rainfall stations and considering the complete statistical data and appropriate coverage of the area by these stations, 4 stations were selected for the study and for each station, a piezometric well was selected within the station. This research was first calculated using precipitation data and water table of piezometric wells SPI and SWI values ​​and then NRMC values ​​for each index, respectively, in each method are briefly referred to:Calculate SPI and plot seasonal SPI variations of selected stations.The standardized rainfall index was provided by McKay et al. (1993, 1995) to provide a warning and help assess drought severity and is calculated by the following formula:  Relation 1:SPI = (X_ij-X_im) / σ In the above relation, X_ij is the seasonal rainfall at rainfall station i, with j number of observations, X_im is the long-term average rainfall and σ is the standard deviation Calculate SWI and plot the seasonal SWI of selected wells  The standard water level index was presented in 2004 by Bui Yan et al. (2006) to monitor fluctuations in groundwater aquifers in the study of hydrological droughts, which is calculated by the following formula:Relation 2:   SWI = (W_ij-W_im) / σ Where W_ij is the seasonal average of the water table of observation wells i to j, W_im is the long-term seasonal average and σ is the standard deviation. Calculate the NRMC values ​​of each indicator and plot the normalized distribution curve In this method, seasonal normalized distribution curves were adjusted for both SPI and SWI indices. Cumulative normalized curve is a kind of condensation diagram of a climatic or hydrological variable (such as precipitation and water table) that is extracted from the subtraction of each observation in the statistical series of the long-term average and its division by the average according to the following formula. (Rasooli, 1994) Relation 3:  NRMC xi = ( (Xi-X m) / ({(Xi-X ̅m) / X ̅m})  ) * 100  In the above formula, Xi represents the amount of each rainfall observation or the amount of water table and X ̅m is the long-term average in the series of observations.

    Results and Discussion

    Investigation of normalized distribution curves showed a correlation between precipitation changes and groundwater level in Marand plain. This correlation has a higher significance with a delay season. Shamsipoor (2003) in Hamedan plain achieved a 9-month delay between precipitation and water table. Mohammadi et al. (2012) in Arak plain expressed the impact of groundwater resources from drought with a delay of two months. The results of the study (Rudel and Lee 2014) in the study of groundwater drought index in the United States showed that the SPI drought index with a delay of 12 and 24 months had the highest correlation with the SWI index.

    Conclusion

    Considering the more fluctuations of the water table than the fluctuations of the rainfall, it can be concluded that human factors such as uncontrolled harvesting is an effective factor on the water level of wells. Komasi et al. (2016) stated the effect of human factors on the decrease of groundwater level before the factor of climate change in Silakhor plain. Calculations showed that the value of correlation for both SPI and SWI indices in the nonlinear multivariate equation is higher than the value of the linear equation, which indicates the effect of several other factors in addition to precipitation fluctuations on the groundwater level. According to the results of the study, it seems that the groundwater level in addition to precipitation depends on other factors such as geology, lithology, tectonic morphology, the shape of the aquifer, the distance of aquifers to the feeding site and .... And to achieve more complete results, it seems necessary to address these factors in future research.

    Keywords: Precipitation Changes, Groundwater level changes, NRMC, SPI, SWI, Marand Plain
  • عاطفه فرج الهی، محمدرضا پورمحمدی*، رحیم حیدری چیانه، داود مختاری

    مقوله زیست پذیری نه تنها از مهم ترین و موثرترین رویکردهای نوین در برنامه ریزی شهری و شهرسازی برای دستیابی به شهر پایدار است بلکه پارادایم نوینی است برای دستیابی به اهداف توسعه پایدار شهری، که خود پیش شرط کلیدی در تبدیل فرایند شهرنشینی به شهرگرایی می باشد به همین منظور یکی از رویکرها در جهت ارتقاء کیفیت زندگی، رویکرد زیست پذیری می باشد. زیست پذیری از جمله رویکردهایی است که به دنبال ایجاد یک محیط امن و سالم برای جوامع انسانی است. تحقیق حاضر نیز با درک اهمیت این موضوع، مناطق دهگانه آن را بصورت تطبیقی و مبتنی بر روش اسنادی، میدانی- پیمایشی و نیز ابزار پرسشنامه (در دو طیف شهروندان و کارشناسان)، بررسی و تحلیل نموده است.از آزمون T تک نمونه ای در محیط نرم افزار SPSS، مدل تصمیم گیری چند شاخصه Vikor و روش تحلیل اثرات متقابل/ساختاری، با استفاده از نرم افزار MicMac برای تجزیه و تحلیل داده های گردآوری شده، استفاده نموده است. نتایج نشانگر این است که بر اساس نظرات کارشناسان و شهروندان،زیست پذیری بالاتر از متوسط (میانگین نظری3) می باشد.شاخص زیست پذیری بر اساس نظرات شهروندان (3.04) که پایین تر از میانگین نظرات کارشناسان (3.20) در سطح شهر تبریز می باشد.

    کلید واژگان: زیست پذیری، بعد کالبدی، توسعه پایدار، محیط شهری
    Atefeh Farajollahi, MahamadReza Pormahamdy *, Rahim Heydari Chianeh, Davod Mokhtari
    Introduction

    In recent years, the issue of sustainable development in urban areas has been one of the most important topics among researchers, professors and urban planning experts, and although many questions have been focused on what should be done and how to solve these challenges and how to do it. (Pourmohammadi, 2003: 1) But in reality, effective solutions are few and the need to renew the attitude to the city and, of course, urban planning, is more evident than ever. Cities face many challenges in the economic, social and environmental fields. At the same time, the increase in population along with the increasing proportion of urbanization has brought harmful consequences for cities. Continuation of such urban growth with social, economic, and environmental problems is critical and is a warning of urban instability, which in turn has severely affected livability in cities (Sasanpour et al., 2014: 29). In this regard, reducing social, cultural, service problems, strengthening the spirit of citizen participation in urban affairs, restoring peace, comfort and beauty to urban environments, implementing social justice effectively and restoring security in various dimensions, all in the hands of management It is an optimal city (Hosseinzadeh Dalir et al., 2012: 161). In this study, which has been conducted with the aim of studying the situation of livability in the regions of Tabriz, while comparatively comparing the situation of regions based on objective and subjective approaches, has identified the key components affecting the promotion of livability. The main question of the research is what is the situation of different areas of Tabriz in terms of livability? And what factors affect the improvement of livability in these areas?

    Data and Methods

    Descriptive-analytical method and questionnaire tools (at two levels of citizens and experts) have been used. In this regard, one-sample t-test in SPSS software environment, Vicker's multi-attribute decision model and interaction / structural impact analysis method were used using Mick Mac software to analyze the data. The statistical population of this study was the residents of 10 districts of Tabriz, and the statistical sample was selected based on stratified sampling method and the proportion of population share of the regions using simple random sampling method.

    Results and Discussion

    The physical dimension, based on the opinions of experts and the sample t-test, has an average of 3.28, which is above average. The value of this dimension, according to citizens, is equal to 3.20 above average (theoretical average of 3). According to the opinions of the citizens of District 9 and according to the opinions of experts, District 1 is in the first place. The results of Vickor analysis also show the first rank of Region 2 in terms of viability. Regarding the effective factors obtained from Mick Mac software, the results show that the renovation of worn tissue and the improvement of marginal tissue are key influential factors.

    Conclusion

    In the section of biodegradability analysis, based on objective criteria, 8 criteria were used and the areas were ranked according to their per capita related to urban uses using the Victor technique. The ranking of the regions is; Zones 2, 9, 5, 1, 6, 7, 3, 4, 9 and 10. Regarding the analysis of key factors affecting urban livability, cross-structural / structural analysis method was used. This was done in the Mic Mac software environment. The results show that in order of factors; Creating employment and sustainable income, renovating worn-out structures, improving suburban structures, providing adequate housing, developing green and open spaces, and providing infrastructure services are key factors. Considering this, it can be said that among the 10 areas of Tabriz metropolis, we are witnessing a spatial imbalance in terms of livability, and the optimal management of the mentioned cases plays an important role in eliminating this spatial imbalance. Based on this, it can be acknowledged that achieving viability requires an attitude similar to a living organism that people and place are two sides of this living organism.

    Keywords: Viability, physical dimension, Sustainable development, Urban environment
  • یونس نیکوخصال، علی اکبر رسولی*، داود مختاری، خلیل ولیزاده کامران

    بررسی اثرات خشکسالی بر منابع آب دشت های کشور در مدیریت بهینه منابع آب در بخش کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی بسیار حایز اهمیت می باشد. پدیده تغییر اقلیم با تغییر در میزان بارش و وقوع خشکسالی-های متوالی اقلیمی بر منابع آب زیرزمینی تاثیر می گذارد. شناخت و آگاهی از تاثیر زمانی بین دو پدیده ی خشکسالی و خشکسالی آب شناختی، می تواند به مدیران و برنامه ریزان بخش آب کمک زیادی کند. در طول سالیان متمادی، اثر خشکسالی بر روی منابع آبهای زیرزمینی کمتر مورد توجه قرار گرفته است، بدین منظور، در این پژوهش، با استفاده از شاخص استاندارد بارش و شاخص سطح استاندارد آب زیرزمینی تاثیر خشکسالی بر منابع آب زیرزمینی دشت مرند طی سال های آبی81-1380 تا 96-1395 مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. بدین منظور، داده های مربوط به 8 ایستگاه هواشناسی در دشت مرند مورد مطالعه قرار گرفت و با استفاده از شاخص SPI روند خشکسالی در منطقه مورد مطالعه قرار گرفت نتایج نشان داد که در طول مدت مطالعه (1380-1397) سه دوره خشکسالی از زمستان 1384 تا آغاز سال 1388، تابستان 1390 تا پایان سال 1391 و زمستان 1395 تا تابستان 1397 اتفاق افتاده است. مناطق درگیر خشکسالی شامل شرق و مرکز منطقه مورد مطالعه بوده و غرب منطقه شاهد نزولات جوی بیشتری بوده است. برای بررسی وضعیت سطح آب زیرزمینی از شاخص SWI استفاده شد. این شاخص نشان داد از لحاظ زمانی و مکانی، خشکسالی بر اساس این شاخص منطبق بر خشکسالی حاصل از شاخص SPI می باشد. نتایج این شاخص نمایانگر افزایش برداشت از سفره های آب زیرزمینی جهت جبران نیاز آبی دشت می باشد. بررسی داده ها نشان داد که این دو شاخص با فاصله زمانی یک فصل دارای هم بستگی در سطح 1 درصد می باشند.

    کلید واژگان: خشکسالی اقلیمی، آب زیرزمینی، شاخص SPI، شاخص SWI، دشت مرند
    Younes Nikookhesal, AliAkbar Rasoli *, Davod Mokhtari, Khalil Valizadeh Kamran
    Introduction

    Investigating the effect of drought on water resources of countries plain is high important at optimal management of water resources in the agriculture and natural resources part. The phenomenon of climate change, affects the amount of water existence in aquifer by changing amount of precipitation. The occurrence of consecutive climate droughts affects ground water resources. Knowing and awareness of the effect of time between two phenomenon of drought and hydrological drought, can help managers and planners of the water sector. Over the years, the effect of drought on ground water resources less attention has been paid. In order to understand the state of groundwater resources and optimum management, it is necessary to carry out a thorough study of groundwater fluctuations. In this research, Marand plain is the purpose of this study. Marand Plain is poor in rainfall and has a rainfall of 450 mm / year and at least 150 mm / year which varies in the plains and mountainous regions. In this research, we have tried to investigate the effect of atmospheric drops, including rainfall, on ground water level in the Marand watershed.

    Methodology

    The Marand plain with 45 °, 15 to 50 minutes east longitude and 37 ° 7 'to 38 ° 56' north latitude and with an area of 42.517 square kilometer is one of the vast plains in the northwest of East Azarbaijan province. Which is selected as the study area. In this study, in order to study the trend of ground water level changes in the Marand Plain, the static surface data of 23 piezometric wells was used during the 2000 to 2016. First, a common statistical period was chosen to analyze the data series (2000 to 2016). Then in order to reconstruct the statistical defects, the correlation between stations and piezometric wells and linear regression method was used. The IDW method was used to calculate the average rainfall of the plain. Finally, the standard water level index (SWI) and the SPI index for the studied basin were calculated and analyzed. 

    Discussion

    The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of climate drought on the fell of groundwater level in the Marand plain using SPI and SWI indices. Meteorological drought conditions in the Marand plain were calculated using the SPI index on a 12-month time scale. The results and drought accuracy of the rain gauge stations in the studied basin showed that during the study period, the first period of drought since 2005 started gradually with decreasing atmospheric precipitation and continued until 2007 and after a period of humidity short-term, again, a short period of drought from 2008 to 2009 has been on the ruling area. The SWI index was used to survey the status of groundwater level. This indicator also showed that in terms of time and place, the drought based on this index corresponded to the drought caused by the SPI index.

    Conclusion

    Using the SPI index, the drought trend was studied in the region. The results showed that during the study period (2000-2016) three drought periods from winter 2005 to beginning of 2009, summer of 2011 to the end of 2012 and winter of 2015 to summer of 2016 occurred. Drought affected areas included the east and center of the study area and the west of the region witnessed more atmospheric precipitation. The SWI index was used to survey the status of groundwater level. The index showed that in terms of time and place, the drought based on this index corresponded to the drought caused by the SPI index. Data analysis showed that these two indices with a time interval of one season had a correlation of 1%. This means that the hydrological drought after a season has a direct impact on the surface of the water. In general, we can conclude from the results of this study that the trend of ground water surface changes has been consistent with the drought and weathering changes in the region. Therefore, the fall of the ground water level of Marand plain can be largely influenced by weathered droughts.

    Keywords: Climatic Drought, Groundwater, SPI index, SWI Index, Marand Plain
  • شهرام روستایی*، داود مختاری، کریستینه جانانه

    ناپایداری های دامنه ای از مشخص ترین نوع مخاطرات زمین ریخت شناسی محسوب می شوند که با دخالت های انسانی تشدید می گردند و بیشتر تاسیسات انسانی، به ویژه جاده های کوهستانی را مورد تهدید قرار می دهند، و به این ترتیب هزینه های سنگینی را به دولت و ساکنین محلی تحمیل می کنند. بنابراین ارزیابی کمی پتانسیل وقوع ناپایداری ها در مناطقی که به لحاظ وضعیت جغرافیایی و ساخت وسازهای انسانی مستعد وقوع ناپایداری ها هستند ضروری می باشد. منطقه مورد مطالعه بزرگراه در حال احداث تهران- شمال می باشد که به دلیل جغرافیای خاص همیشه در معرض انواع ناپایداری ها قرار دارد.در این مطالعه از روش رگرسیون لجستیک برای تحلیل کمی ناپایداری ها در دامنه های مشرف بر اتوبان در حال احداث تهران- شمال (حد فاصل تهران- سولقان) استفاده شده است. جهت بررسی پتانسیل وقوع حرکات دامنه ای لایه های جداگانه 14 فاکتور موثر در وقوع ناپایداری ها (شامل طبقات ارتفاعی، شیب، جهت شیب، زمین شناسی، کاربری اراضی، بارش، فاصله از گسل، فاصله از رودخانه، فاصله از جاده، پوشش گیاهی، اقلیم، LS، SPI و TWI) در محیط GIS تهیه شدند، سپس با لایه پراکنش ناپایداری های موجود انطباق داده شدند و تراکم آن ها در واحد سطح محاسبه شد. در ادامه با استفاده از نرم افزار Terrset مدل رگرسیون لجستیک انجام شد. درنهایت می توان گفت مدل آماری رگرسیون لجستیک مدلی مناسب جهت پهنه بندی احتمال وقوع ناپایداری ها در منطقه مورد مطالعه در کنار خطوط ارتباطی است. به عنوان نتیجه گیری نهایی می توان گفت علاوه بر عوامل طبیعی، عوامل انسانی خصوصا جاده سازی غیراصولی می تواند نقش مهمی در وقوع ناپایداری های دامنه های مشرف بر جاده داشته باشد، برای کاهش نسبی خطرات و افزایش میزان پایداری دامنه ها لازم است تا حد ممکن از تغییر اکوسیستم و کاربری اراضی اجتناب نمود، و همچنین هرگونه سیاست گذاری به منظور احداث سازه ها متناسب با شرایط ژیومورفولوژیکی و زمین شناسی منطقه صورت پذیرد.

    کلید واژگان: ناپایداری های دامنه ای، رگرسیون لجستیک، بزرگراه تهران-شمال، پهنه بندی خطر
    Shahram Roostaei *, Davod Mokhtari, Christineh Jananeh
    Introduction

    Slope instabilities are one of the most distinctive types of geomorphic hazards that are exacerbated by human interference and threaten most of the human installations, especially mountainous highways and impose heavy costs on the government and local residents. Each year, slope instabilities cause enormous economic damages to highway, railways, power transmission and communication lines, irrigation and watering canals, ore extraction, as well as oil and gas refining installations, infrastructures in cities, factories and industrial centers, dams, artificial and natural lakes, forests, pastures and natural resources, farms, residential areas and villages or threaten them. Nowadays, many instabilities are resulted by human intervention and manipulations. One of the effective human factors in instability occurrence is the construction of highway. Highway construction, especially in mountainous areas, increases the probability of occurrence of various types of instabilities, as it changes the natural balance of the slopes and causes deformations in the land. Each year, lots of casualties and financial losses are imposed by the occurrence of various types of instabilities in the slopes overlooking the highways, which also cause the destruction of many natural resources in the country. However, the construction of roads, highways and freeways is necessary and unavoidable in today’s life.The Tehran-North highway will be the route that connect the Iran’s capital Tehran with the southern shores of the Caspian Sea.

    Materials and methods

    This contribution aims to study slope instabilities along this highway using logistic regression method. In this regard, layers of 14 effective factors were identified, comprised of elevation classes, slope, aspect, geology, land use, precipitation, distance from fault, river and highway, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), climate, slope length (LS), stream power index (SPI) and topographic wetness index (TWI). Consequently, maps of the factors responsible for instabilities were prepared as separate layers in the GIS environment and transferred into the Idrisi software. The whole procedure included: (1) preparation of digital elevation model (DEM), river and fault layers based on the 1:25,000 topographic map of the area, as well as distance maps from rivers and faults, (2) creating slope and aspect maps from DEM, (3) preparation of land use and NDVI maps of the region based on unmatched classification of Landsat 8 image of OLI sensor, (4) preparation of geological map, (5) preparation of precipitation and climate layers based on the information obtained from the meteorological organization, (6) creating LS, SPI and TWI layers based on the DEM, (7) conversion of the distribution data of the regional instabilities using Landsat satellite and Google Earth images, (8) correlating the information layers with the regional instability map and calculating their density per unit area, and (9) performing the logistic regression model using Terrset software.

    Result and discussion

    Results obtained by applying logistic regression model showed that the most important factors affecting slope instabilities in the Tehran-Soleghan highway area are distance from fault and climate. 27.14% of the Soleghan highway area possesses medium to high potential for instabilities, within which 86.26% of the instabilities have occurred. Furthermore, 4.57% of the Soleghan highway area shows very high risk in terms of instability occurrence, encompassing 61% of the occurred instabilities. According to the prepared maps, the middle and southern parts and a small section in the north of the Tehran-Soleghan highway area have the highest potential for instability occurrence. The high value of the ROC index and its proximity to the end value of 1 indicates that instabilities strongly correlate with the probability values derived from the logistic regression model. Additionally, the assessment of the instability potential map by the SCAI index showed that there is a high correlation between the prepared risk maps and the occurred instabilities, which have been confirmed by field surveys. The obtained results are in a good agreement with the general opinion that SCAI decreases especially in high and very high risk classes and indicates a high correlation between the prepared risk maps and the occurred instabilities and field surveys in study areas.

    Conclusion

    Finally, it can be mentioned that the logistic regression model is suitable for preparing the zonation of the probability of instability occurrence along the edges of the studied highway. As a final conclusion, it can be concluded that in addition to natural factors, the- human-made factors and particularly unsystematic highway  construction can play an important role in the instability occurrences on the slopes overlooking the highway  and in order to reduce the relative risks and increase the stability of the slopes, it is necessary to avoid manipulating the ecosystem and changing the current land use as much as possible, in addition to policy making for constructions in accordance with geomorphological and geological features of the area.

    Keywords: Slope instabilities, Logistic Regression, Tehran-North highway, Risk zonation
  • ابراهیم احمدزاده، خلیل ولیزاده کامران*، داود مختاری، علی اکبر رسولی

    اخیرا حدهای بالا و دنباله بالایی توزیع فراوانی بارش مورد توجه بسیار بوده است. در این راستا به فراخور ویژگیهای جغرافیایی هر پهنه، آستانه های متعدد و متنوعی برای این ویژگی بارش معرفی و به کار گرفته شده است. در تحقیق حاضر، جهت بررسی و تحلیل روند رویداد حدی بارش در استان تهران طی دوره آماری 2016-1983 ، از تعدادی از نمایه های ارایه شده توسط کمیته ملی اقلیم شناسی سازمان هواشناسی جهانی استفاده شده است. رفتار دنباله توزیع رویداد حدی بارش و تحلیل فراوانی و شدت این رویداد، با استفاده از مدل مقادیر اوج های بالاتر از آستانه (POT) بررسی شد. انتخاب آستانه مناسب جهت محاسبه اوج های بالاتر از آن آستانه با استفاده روش های صدک 95ام ، نمودار میانگین باقیمانده عمر (MRL) و بازبینی مدل- پایه (MBC) انجام پذیرفت. تخمین پارامترهای توزیع با روش حداکثر درست نمایی و ارزیابی وقوع و شدت رویدادهای حدی با استفاده از میانگین فواصل زمانی بین رویدادها (ARIs) بررسی شد. نتایج حاصل از آزمون من-کندال نشان داد که در ایستگاه های مورد مطالعه روند معنی داری در نمایه های حدی بارندگی در دوره آماری 2016-1983 تجربه نشده است. بررسی منحنی های رشد نشان داد که در دوره آماری 34 ساله (2016-1983) بیشتر رویدادهای حدی مشاهده شده در ایستگاه ها دوره بازگشت 1 تا 10 سال دارند. بررسی نمودارهای Q-Q و آماره χ2 نشان داد که مدل POT قابلیت زیادی جهت مدل سازی رویدادهای حدی در منطقه مورد مطالعه دارد.

    کلید واژگان: حدی، مدل مقادیر اوج های بالاتر از آستانه (POT)، دوره بازگشت ARIs، استان تهران
    Ebrahim Ahmadzadeh, Khalil Valizadeh Kamran *, Davod Mokhtari, Ali Akbar Rasoli
    Introduction

    Recently, high extreme and frequency distribution of higher sequence of precipitation have been attended more. Through this, because of geographical characteristics of each area, diverse and different thresholds have been presented and utilized for the mentioned precipitation’s characteristics. Through the present research, for exploring and analyzing the extreme precipitation event in Tehran through the 1983-2016 statistical periods, some of the indexes presented by World Meteorological Organization Committee were utilized.
    Data and

    Method

    The extreme precipitation event distribution sequence behavior and frequency analyses and severity of the mentioned event were explored by using the Peak Over Threshold value model (POT). Selecting the suitable threshold for calculating the peaks higher than threshold using the 95 percentile methods, Mean of Remaining Life (MRL) and Model-Base Controlling (MBC) was done. Distribution parameters’ determining by maximum likelihood method and evaluating the occurrence and extreme events’ severity was investigated by using the Average Returning Intervals (ARLs).

    Results and Discussion

    The results accessed from Man-Kendal illustrated that in the studying stations, the significance process in the extreme indexes through the 1983-2016 was not met.

    Conclusion

    Exploring the development curves showed that through the 34-year-old statistical period (1983-2016), most of the observed extreme events in the stations had 1 to 10 years return. Q-Q exploring charts and χ2 statistics showed that POT model included the high quality for modeling the extreme events in the studying area

    Keywords: Extreme Precipitation, Peak Over Threshold Values Model, ARIs Returning Period, Tehran Province
  • محسن زارع احمدآباد، ابراهیم مقیمی*، داود مختاری
    تکتونیک همواره فعال در محدوده مورد مطالعه، آنرا به آزمایشگاهی طبیعی برای مطالعه چین خوردگی ها و چشم اندازهای گسل خوردگی، ماگماتیسم، سطوح چند ضلعی و نیز مطالعه سنگ شناسی،کانی شناسی وفرایندهایدامنه ای، برای پژوهشگران علم ژیومورفولوژی و محدوده ای جذاب در جهت ژیوتوریسم فراهم کرده است. ژیومورفوسایت های حاصل از پدیده های مورفوتکتونیک در امتدادگسل فعال تبریز با معرفی 5 ناحیه و با چشم اندازهایی خاص مانند؛ سطوح شیب دار متاثر از فعالیت های زمین ساخت، اشکال چند وجهی با رخنمون های منحصر به فرد، فرایندها و اشکال متنوع رودخانه ای، پهنه ها و ارتفاعات گنبدی حاصل از فرایند های هالوتکتونیک، چشمه های فعال تراورتن سازدر سمت غربی صوفیان و تپه های رنگارنگ کم ارتفاع و تیپیک بدلند (هزار دره ها)، در شرق صوفیان به عنوان بخشی از مناطق ژیوتوریسم و ژیومورفوسایت ها مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. تکنیک عمده در این تحقیق بر اساس زمین پیمایشی(Geo-hiking) و بر مبنای یافته های میدانی و مطالعات کتابخانه ای است. برخی از تحلیل های مکانی در ابعاد کمی و کیفی در محیط نرم افزاریGIS انجام گردیده است. یافته های تحقیق بر اساس تکنیک و روش بکار گرفته شده حاکی از آن است که پدیده های ژیومورفولوژیک و ژیومورفوتکتونیک مد نظر دارای میانگین پتانسیل 75/0 از منظر ژیوتوریسم در روش پانیزا برخوردار می باشد. بر مبنای نتایج و با مقایسه 7 شاخص مد نظر، ژیوسایت های مورد مطالعه از منظر دو شاخص علمی و زیبایی شناختی بالاترین پتانسیل، اما به لحاظ ارزش های گردشگری ، به جزء ژیوسایت عینالی، بقیه از وضعیت مطلوبی برخوردار نیستند. ضمن اینکه گسل فعال تبریز را نه به عنوان یک تهدید همیشگی، بلکه به عنوان یک توان محیطی بلقوه و یک فرصت طبیعی برای ارتقای گردشگری منطقه معرفی کرد.
    کلید واژگان: ژئومورفولوژی، تبریز، ژئومورفوسایت، پانیزا
    Mohsen Zare Ahmadabad, Ebrahim Moghimi *, Davod Mokhtari
    Active tectonics in the study area provide it to a natural laboratory for studying corrosion and landscape of corrosion faults, magmatic, polygonal levels, as well as petrology, mineralogy and amplitude processes, for researchers of geomorphology and an attractive area for Geotourism Has done.Geomorphosites from morph tectonic phenomena along the active fault of Tabriz by introducing 5 areas with specific landscapes; steep surfaces affected by land-construction activities; multifaceted forms with unique outcrops; river diverse processes and forms; The domains and heights of the dome made from halo tonic processes, active travertine springs in the western side of the Sufis, and low-altitude and typical colorful hills (1000 valleys), were investigated in eastern Sufi as part of the Geotourism and geomorphosites areas.The main technique in this research is based on geo-hiking and based on field findings and library studies. Some spatial analysis has been done in quantitative and qualitative dimensions in the GIS software environment.Based on the results and with the comparison of the seven indicators, the studied Geosites have a good value and aesthetic value, but in terms of tourism values, with the exception of Geosites equivalents, the others are not in desirable condition. The findings of the research, based on the technique and methodology used, indicate that geomorphologic and geo morph tectonic phenomena with an average potential of 0.75 from the point of view of Geotourism in the Panizza method. As a result, Tabriz's active fault is not a threat Perpetual, but also as a potential environmental power and a natural opportunity for the region's tourism.
    Keywords: geomorphology, Tabriz, Geomorphosite, Paniza
  • محمدحسین رضایی مقدم*، داود مختاری، مجید شفیعی مهر

    برای شبیه سازی رواناب و رسوب در حوضه های آبریز از مدل های مختلفی می توان استفاده کرد که هر یک برای شرایطی خاصی ارایه شده است. در این پژوهش، بیلان آبی و رسوب حوضه آبریز شهرچای با استفاده از مدل SWAT شبیه سازی شد. برای واسنجی و اعتبارسنجی مدل SWAT از روش SUFI-2 استفاده گردید. نتایج حاصل با استفاده از چهار معیار ارزیابی مدل ها شامل معیار نش ساتکلیف، ضریب تبیین، نسبت باقیمانده میانگین مربعات خطا به انحراف از معیار داده های مشاهداتی و دو فاکتور p-factor و r-factor مقایسه شدند. نتایج نشان داد که روش SUFI-2 دارای الگوریتم موترتری برای واسنجی و اعتبار سنجی مدل در این حوضه می باشد همچنین مقادیر بدست آمده از مدل برای رواناب و رسوب در این حوضه در حد قابل قبول می باشد. ولی این مدل رواناب را بهتر از رسوب در این حوضه شبیه سازی می کند از مهمترین علل ضعف مدل در شبیه سازی می توان به به تعداد کم داده ها، غیر قابل اعتماد بودن داده ها، شبیه سازی ضعیف جریان، عدم پیوستگی اطلاعات و نبود یا کمبود داده های کامل روزانه رسوب اشاره نمود.

    کلید واژگان: شهرچای، روش SUFI-2، واسنجی، مدل SWAT
    MohammadHossein Rezaei Moghaddam *, Davod Mokhtari, Majid Shafieimehr
    Introduction

    Proper management of catchments is one of the most important ways to make optimal use of water and soil resources. In our country, most of the catchments, especially the mountainous catchments, do not have enough hydrometric and sedimentation stations. This fact makes any development and management plans difficult. Hydrologists and water resources researchers have come up with various solutions but none of them have been completely successful (Roustamiyan et al., 1999; 588 & Shaygan et al., 2011; 2). On the other hand, the limited methods of measurement in hydrology and the need to have a method to generalize the available statistics to areas without statistics or places where measurement is not possible. Also, simulating future hydrological changes is one of the main reasons for hydrological simulation (Beven & Binley, 2001; 46). The ability of the SWAT model to simulate the complex hydrological processes of watersheds in the GIS environment distinguishes this model from integrated models in which larger user units are the basis of operation. 

    Data and Method

    The study area is part of the Qizil Üzan River. Shahar Chai basin along with other rivers such as Zanjan Chai, Aydughmush, and Qaranquchay is one of the sub-branches of Qizil Üzan that flows northwest and north of the basin and joins near the Myaneh city. The data used in this study include a digital elevation model of 1: 10000 of mapping organization, land use, soil, precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature, wind speed, solar radiation, relative daily humidity of synoptic stations, Sarab, Heris, Bostan Abad, Charoymaq and Runoff and the sediment of Shahar Chai station. In the watershed of Shahar Chai, a soil map prepared by natural resources of East Azerbaijan province has been used. Based on these maps, 21 soil texture classes can be distinguished in the whole basin. Also, based on the land use map, six land use classes in the area were identified.

    Results and Discussion

    After parameterization and data entry, the simulation was performed for 20 years from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2019, based on a monthly time step. To determine the degree of sensitivity of flow parameters in the SWAT model, sensitivity analysis was performed using the SUFI-2 method for 25 selected runoff parameters and 15 selected sedimentation parameters. Using validation results to remove parameters that are less sensitive from the calibration process, it is decided that finally the parameters with lower sensitivity were removed and 13 parameters for runoff and 7 parameters for sediment were selected that were more sensitive. The calibration model for runoff and sediment was done in one step with 1500 simulations in three replications. The calibration process ends when, based on the objective function, the coefficients required for evaluation are acceptable. According to the obtained results, all the evaluation criteria of the model in the simulation of runoff and sediment are allowed.

    Conclusion

    Examination of the results of the SUFI-2 method in the Shahar Chai basin showed that, based on the evaluation criteria of the coefficients of determination and Nash-Sutcliffe, both in the calibration and validation stages, it has good results in this basin. But they can't predict peak discharge and sediments well. To better determine the performance of the model, first of all, it is recommended that the statistics of stations and numerous and daily runoff and sedimentation measurements should be used instead of monthly, if any, in a basin, to compare their results. Secondly, to achieve the desired results, this model should be used in comparison with other simulation models in this basin and adjacent basins.

    Keywords: Shahr chai, SUFI-2 method, Calibration, SWAT model
  • داود مختاری*

    همگام با گسترش ژیوتوریسم، جامعه علمی همچنان در جستجوی پاسخی مناسب در خصوص اهداف، چرایی مسافرت به محوطه های ژیوتوریستی، علایق و انگیزه ها، نیازها و خواسته ها و ویژگیهای جمعیت شناختی ژیوتوریستها است. از سوی دیگر، وجود برداشتهای متفاوت و تعدد آرا در این خصوص، نوعی آشفتگی در ادبیات موضوع را فراهم نموده است. این مقاله سعی دارد با تحلیل و بیان جامعی از ابعاد و ویژگیهای یک ژیوتوریست و گرد آوری و ارایه نظریات و پیشنهادهای موجود در ادبیات موضوع، اطلاعاتی متقن از ژتوریستها را در اختیار محققین و دست اندرکاران عرصه ژیوتوریسم قرار دهد. روش تحقیق از نوع توصیفی تحلیل محتوا است. نتایج نشان داد که ژیوتوریست واقعی کسی است که در راستای اهداف ژیوتوریسم و متناسب با ماهیت و قلمرو آن، پاسداری و حمایت از ابعاد پنجگانه کلیدی ویژگی های جغرافیایی یک ناحیه؛ یعنی محیط، فرهنگ، زیبایی، علم و آموزش و بهزیستی مردم محلی را وظیفه خود بداند. 

    کلید واژگان: ژئوتوریست، گونه شناسی ژئوتوریستها، علائق و انگیزه ژئوتوریستها، مدیربت گردشگری
    Davod Mokhtari *
    Introduction

    Along with geotourism,the scientific community is still in search of answers suitable for the purpose, why travel to the geotouristic areas, interests and motivations, needs and desires and demographic characteristics of geotourists. On the other hand, there are different interpretations and the plurality of opinions in this regard, some confusion in the literature is provided.

    Materials and Methods

    This article attempts to analyze and the expression of a range of dimensions and characteristics of a geotourist and collecting and providing comments and suggestions in the literature, Certain information from geotourists for researchers and practitioners in the field provided. The research method is descriptive content analysis. During this study, the position and status of theoretical foundations of geotourists have been described in terms of the nature and scope of geotourism.

    Discussion and Results

    Everyone, as the executive or audience of geotourism, is obligated to observe all its principles and dimensions. Minimizing the consequences, negating environmental and cultural awareness, creating positive experiences for visitors and hosts, attracting direct financial support for safeguards measures, creating financial rewards and empowering local peoples, enhancing the political, environmental, and social environment of host societies, supporting Citizenship rights are the most important of these principles. On the other hand, one of the goals of geotourism is to teach geosciences. Given the challenge, designing tools and providing solutions that can combine these two, namely, leisure and training, is necessary.
    Attention to the typology of geotourists leads to a better understanding of the dimensions of geotourism and contributes to the development and marketing of geotourism. It also provides some insight into the choice of tourism destination and the creation of a competitive atmosphere for these purposes. The experience of successful geotourism depends on the needs of the tourist and, in this case, it is more probable to re-visit geosite.
    Having a set of phenomena and tourist attractions with geological, geomorphologic, biological, heritage and cultural features is one of the most important features of each geotourist site. Therefore, offering a diverse set of attractions that is known in the literature of geotourism as "ABC[1]", and covers non-polluting phenomena (geological and geomorphological), living (animals and plants), and cultural (artificial attraction), from geotours side is necessary for geotourists. The development of geotourism should not affect the conservation of geotourist sites. Therefore, developers and land managers must, in any way, establish a balance between the conservation and development of geotourism. In the meantime, creation of geotourist training ground is one of the important tasks of geoscientists working in the field of geotourism. Undoubtedly, it is necessary to use simple and adaptive instruments for the geotourists to explain and teach geology and geomorphology for geotourists. This paper attempts to present an image of geotourists and their characteristics by reviewing resources and collecting globally written documents. The increasing trend of interest in visiting geotourist sites, increasing geological and geomorphologic information, visiting diverse cultures, enjoying outdoor activities, and settling in simple residences, in spite of the persuasion of tourists to geotourism, led the geotourists to take individual trips to instead of participating in the tour group. Perhaps because of this, the lack of such tours in Iran and even the world, or if they exist, will not meet the needs and aspirations of geotourists.

    Conclusions

    The results showed that the real geotourist is one who in order to geotourism purposes and proportionate to the nature and scope of it, protect and support the five key aspects of the geographical features of the area, the environment, culture, aesthetics, science and education and well-being of local people. This paper tries to provide researchers and practitioners with a geotourism perspective with comprehensive analysis of the dimensions and characteristics of a geotourist and the collection and presentation of ideas and suggestions in the subject literature.

    Keywords: Geotourist, Typology of geotourists, Geotourist interests, motivations, Geotouristic destinations. Tourism management in Geosites
  • لیلا خدائی قشلاق*، شهرام روستایی، داود مختاری، خلیل ولیزاده کامران

    زمین لغزش به علت ماهیت خطرناک خود در مناطق کوهستانی مورفولوژی را به طور ناگهانی برهم می زند و خسارت هایی عمده به مناطق مسکونی، جاده ها زمین های کشاورزی و... وارد می کند. دید یکپارچه تصاویر سنجش از دور راداری آن را به ابزاری قدرتمند برای تهیه نقشه های پراکنش و ارزیابی خطر و ریسک  وقوع زمین لغزش ها و ناپایداری ها در فواصل زمانی مختلف تکرار شونده تبدیل نموده است. از این رو این پژوهش با هدف شناسایی، پایش و سنجش خطرپذیری منطقه در برابر زمین لغزش ها در بازه زمانی 2005 تا 2010 برای منطقه اهر- ورزقان در حوضه آبریز اهر چای با استفاده از تکنیک های تداخل سنجی SAR به اجراء درآمد. بدین منظور تعداد 10 تصویر راداری از سنجنده ASAR ماهواره ENVISAT انتخاب و به روش InSAR پردازش شد. نتیجه پردازش های اولیه نشان داد که از بین زوج های تصویری تشکیل شده،8 تصویر انتخابی از سنجنده ASAR جهت استفاده در پردازش اینترفرومتری InSAR مناسب بودند. بر اساس نتایج پردازش تصاویر راداری، بیشترین میزان جابجایی صورت گرفته در منطقه مورد مطالعه مربوط قسمتهای شرق و غرب به صورت لغزش بوده است. نتایج این پژوهش حاکی از فعال بودن تنها  برخی از    زمین لغزش های موجود در جنوب منطقه در طول مدت زمان اخذ تصاویر راداری است. همچنین نتایج نشان داد که داده های راداری و روش پردازش تداخل سنجی InSAR در شناسایی، پایش زمین لغزش ها و محاسبه میزان جابجایی آن ها از پتانسیل خوبی برخوردار است و جهت دستیابی به نتایج دقیق تر استفاده از روش های پیشرفنه تر در این زمینه سودمندتر خواهد بود.

    کلید واژگان: اهر - ورزقان، تصاویر راداری، InSAR، زمین لغزش، سنجنده ASAR
    Leila Khodaei Geshlag *, Shahram Roostaei, Davod Mokhtari, Khalil Valizadeh Kamran
    Introduction

    Risk management and landslide assessment begin with a comprehensive identification and monitoring of their movements and mapping them, which can be used as a basis for achieving knowledge about their spatial and temporal distribution. The integrated vision of the radar remote sensing images has made them a powerful tool for preparing distribution maps, assessing the risk of landslides, and evaluating the instabilities reoccurring at various time intervals. Therefore, this study aimed to identify, monitor, and measure the extent to which the region is at the risk of slope instabilities in the period of 2009-2011 in the Ahar-Varzeghan region in the Ahar Chay heights using the Interferometry Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) technique.
    Data and

    Method

    The studied area is a part of Ahar Chay watershed with an area of 1593 km2, which makes it the largest watershed in the East Azerbaijan province. The said area has an east longitude of 35´ 46° to 10´ 47° and north latitude of 20´ 38° to 45´ 38°. This area is located on northern slopes at an altitude of more than 2730 m, and in the Alpaut and Chaligh areas with an altitude of less than 1260 m.Various types of data were used in this research, including radar imagines, ENVISAT-ASAR, and data captured by Global Positioning System (GPS) in field research. Besides, topographic maps of 1.25000 associated with the country's land surveying organization and geological maps of 1:250000 related to the country's geological and mineral exploration organization were used to examine the area's geology and morphology. Besides, SAR scape ENVI4.8 and Arc/GIS software environments were used to prepare and process radar images, and provide the displacement maps associated with the landslides.
    INSAR is a remote sensing technique developed to study the earth's surface movements in the 1992 Landers, California earthquake. When this technique is adopted, two or more SAR images are used to generate a digital elevation model or prepare a map of the movements of the earth's surface. Also, this technique measures the phase difference between two different waves, and this phase difference is attributed to the change in the distance between the sensor and the earth target or the movements of the earth's surface. SAR images show the movements of the earth's surface in the direction of the satellite's line of sight. However, SAR images can be used in both ascending and descending modes, which enable them to measure the earth's surface movements in three directions: vertically, from the north, and east. The following steps must be taken to measure the movements of the earth's surface and/or develop a digital elevation model using the InSAR technique:SAR image formation:-          Interferogram generation
    - Ambiguous phase extraction
    - Phase recovery in the generated interferogram
    - Elimination of the effect of the topographic phase on the interferogram
    - Displacement phase extraction

    Results and Discussion

    The InSAR technique has been used in this study to identify the range of slope instabilities and the rate of displacement of unstable landslides. Based on the research findings, radar images and differential interferometry processing methods could potentially identify unstable active areas and calculate the rate of displacement. In this study, the results of the ASAR radar image processing were used to calculate the rate of displacement from 2009 to 2011. Figure 9 showed the displacement rate for the period of 2006-2011. It should be noted that positive and negative numbers in this figure indicated the rate of upward and downward movements, respectively. According to this figure, the highest and lowest rates of downward movements were associated with 2009 and 2011, respectively. In other words, the rate of downward movements had decreased by 2011. However, the rate of upward movement in the region was the highest for the years 2009 and 2010. Also, the lowest rate of upward movement recorded for this area was in 2011.

    Conclusion

    The present study utilized the InSAR technique to identify the range of landslides and to estimate the displacement of unstable landslides. The results of this study showed that radar images and differential interferometry processing methods could potentially identify unstable active areas and calculate the rate of displacement. In this study, the results of the ASAR radar image processing were used to calculate the rate of displacement between 2009 and 2011. Then, the validity of the results of the InSAR technique was measured by adapting the displacement maps to field operations and Google Earth. According to the research findings, the highest rate of fall or downward movement occurred in approximately 8 cm in the southern areas. Moreover, the highest rate of elevation or upward movement occurred in about 5 cm in the east northern areas in 2009. The highest rate of falls in this year was associated with areas with old landslides, among which the villages of Depigh, Nasirabad, and around Sariaraghan were more affected than other areas. These instabilities in the village of Depigh were mostly located around the bed of the Ahar Chay river, in a way that severe landslides in this area caused enormous rocks to accumulate on the surface of the river bed.

    Keywords: Ahar-Varzaghan, Radar Images, InSAR, Landslide, ASAR sensor
  • فاطمه خدائی قشلاق، شهرام روستایی*، داود مختاری

    پژوهش حاضر با هدف پایش روند بیابان زایی در محدوده پیرامونی دریاچه ارومیه در بازه زمانی 2000 تا 2018 میلادی انجام شده است. برای رسیدن به این هدف، نخست هفت فریم از تصاویر سنتینل-2 مربوط به سال 2018 و سه فریم از تصاویر ماهواره لندست 5 مربوط به سال 2000 میلادی با استفاده از نرم افزار QGIS و ENVI 5.3 پیش پردازش و پردازش، و شاخص های معرف بیابان زایی در قالب زوج شاخص های طیفی آلبدو - شاخص پوشش گیاهی تفاضلی نرمال شده، میزان سبزینگی- ضریب روشنایی و میزان رطوبت- ضریب روشنایی استخراج شد. در مرحله بعد روابط آماری موجود بین زوج شاخص های یادشده بررسی شد. براساس نتایج حاصل، زوج شاخص های میزان سبزینگی- ضریب روشنایی و میزان رطوبت- ضریب روشنایی، با کسب همبستگی منفی به مثابه زوج شاخص های معرف بیابان زایی انتخاب و نقشه شدت خطر بیابان زایی برمبنای آنها تهیه شد. برای صحت سنجی نتایج به دست آمده، الگوریتم بیشترین درجه شباهت به کار رفت. الگوریتم یادشده با کسب درجه صحت 96/91 و ضریب کاپای 95/0 برای سال 2000 میلادی، درجه صحت 25/91 و ضریب کاپای 89/0 در سال 2018 نشان دهنده انطباق مناسب نتایج کسب شده با واقعیت های زمینی است. برای پایش روند وقوع پدیده بیابان زایی، تغییر مساحت کلاس های خطر بیابان زایی در محدوده مطالعه شده بررسی شد. براساس نتایج به دست آمده، مساحت کلاس های خطر شدید (01/5 درصد)، نسبتا شدید (47/11 درصد) و متوسط (12/6 درصد) رشد مثبت و مساحت کلاس های خطر ضعیف (17/9 درصد) و بدون بیابان زایی (43/13 درصد) رشد منفی دارد؛ بنابراین روند افزایشی درصد مساحت کلاس های خطر شدید، نسبتا شدید، متوسط و کاهش مساحت کلاس های خطر ضعیف و بدون خطر بیابان زایی نشان دهنده روند صعودی وقوع بیابان زایی در محدوده مطالعه شده است. معیار آب زیرزمینی، اقلیم و درصد پوشش گیاهی، مهم ترین عوامل موثر در وقوع بیابان زایی در محدوده مطالعه شده است.

    کلید واژگان: پایش بیابان زایی، دریاچه ارومیه، سنتینل-2، لندست-5، الگوریتم بیشترین درجه شباهت
    Fatemeh Khodaei Geshlag, Shahram Roostaei *, Davod Mokhtari
    Introduction

    According to the First World Conference on Deserts and Desertification, desertification refers to the destruction and degradation of natural ecosystems in arid, semi-arid, and sub-humid arid regions, which results in lower biomass production and the emergence of soil erosion (Ekhtesasi et al., 2011). Desertification results from natural factors such as climate variables and anthropogenic activities (Binal et al, 2018; Claado et al, 2002) and its impact on ecological processes is enormous and complex. Therefore, counteracting desertification is necessary to maintain long-term soil fertility in arid areas of the world. The present study aimed at evaluating desertification trends in the areas surrounding Lake Urmia in the period from 2000 to 2018. The main objectives of this study were 1) identification of the most suitable spectral index pair of desertification in the study area during the study period, taking into account the statistical relations; 2) mapping the desertification risk for the study period and the assessment of desertification trend in the study area by using the spectral biophysical indices such as normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), surface albedo, Tasseled cap along with three components of brightness, Wetness, and greenness, and 3) identifying the most important factor that caused desertification in the study area by using the logistic regression model.

    Methodology

    In the present study, first, three frames of Landsat 5 TM sensor and seven frames of Sentinel 2 images were downloaded and analyzed by ENVI5.3 and QGIS software for July 2000 and 2018. In the next step, spectral indices of desertification, including the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), surface albedo, Tasseled Cap (including three components of brightness coefficient, Wetness, and greenness) were extracted for the study period. Thereafter, using the statistical relations and the determination coefficient, the most suitable spectral index pair of desertification in the study area was identified. After the identification of suitable spectral index pairs, the selected spectral index pair was normalized and the desertification mapping was performed for the years 2000 and 2018 taking into account the obtained gradient by using the linear regression relation. Finally, by applying the statistical change detection method, changes in the class's risk were investigated and using the Logistic Regression model, the most effective factor in the occurrence of desertification was identified.

    Discussion :

    The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), wetness, and greenness were considered as the independent variables and surface albedo and brightness coefficient as dependent variables. The pairs of NDVI-Albedo spectral indicators have a positive correlation, but two spectral index pairs of humidity-brightness coefficient and brightness coefficient-greenness due to having a negative correlation were selected as the desertification index pairs and then normalized in the next step through the relevant relations. After mapping the desertification risk according to the index pairs of brightness coefficient-greenness and humidity-brightness, the combined map of desertification was obtained using line slope from the normalized relationship of the selected index pair and overlay function for the years 2000 and 2018 in 5 classes of non-desertification, weak, moderate, severe, and relatively severe desertification risks. To verify the results, using the classification algorithm, the Maximum Likelihood Algorithm and the Error Matrix were obtained, and the algorithm, with the accuracy of 91.96 and the kappa coefficient of 0.95 for 2000, and accuracy of 91.25 and a kappa coefficient of 0.89 for 2018 indicated a good correlation between the obtained results and the real-world data. 

    Conclusion

    The results of this study were as follows: A) The two spectral index pairs of humidity-brightness coefficient and brightness coefficient-greenness were selected as the most suitable desertification indices in the study area, and therefore, the desertification risk maps were obtained through using this spectral index pair, B) The classification algorithm showed the highest degree of similarity with the accuracy of 91.96 and the kappa coefficient of 0.95 for the maps of 2000, and accuracy of 91.25 and a kappa coefficient of 0.89 for the maps of 2018, which indicated a good correlation between the obtained results and the real-world data, C) According to the results of statistical change detection analysis method, the areas of ​​severe, relatively severe, and moderate desertification risk classes were increasing from 2000 to 2018, D) The desertification risk maps of 2000 and 2018 showed that the lands on the eastern coast, and especially on the southeast of the Lake Urmia, and the areas at the marginal edge of Tabriz Plain, overlooking the Lake Urmia were more sensitive to the desertification risk, and showed more severe degradation, compared to those on the west coast of Lake Urmia, F) Indicators such as underground water electric conductivity, chlorine index of underground water, Sodium adsorption ratio, drought index, Percentage of vegetation, had a high impact on the occurrence of desertification.

    Keywords: Desertification monitoring, Lake Urmia, ENVI 5.3, Logistic Regression, Maximum likelihood algorithm
  • محمدحسین رضایی مقدم*، داود مختاری، نسرین سمندر

    ازآنجاکه زمین به عنوان یکی از نهاده های بخش تولید است، نه تنها در اقتصاد کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی بلکه در اقتصاد کل کشور نقش به سزایی دارد و توجه به زمین و تغییرات به وجود آمده در آن، امری ضروری است. تحقیق حاضر به منظور بررسی روند تغییرات کاربری اراضی حوضه آبریز اوجان چای با استفاده از سنجش ازدور و GIS انجام شده است. از تصاویر چند زمان سنجنده TM سال 1987 و +ETM سال 2002 و +ETM سال 2015 استفاده شد و نقشه های کاربری اراضی بر اساس پردازش رقومی حداکثر احتمال و ماشین بردار پشتیبان تهیه شد. نقشه های کاربری اراضی به همراه اطلاعات زمینی وارد محیط GIS شدند و میزان و نوع تغییرات کاربری اراضی در منطقه به دست آمد. با توجه به نتایج، روش SVM برای برآورد تغییرات منطقه موردمطالعه کارآمدتر بوده به گونه ای که نتایج استخراج شده از درصد دقت و ضریب کاپای بالاتری برخوردار است. از نتایج ارزیابی ها می توان چنین استخراج کرد که روند تغییرات کاربری در برخی کاربری ها مانند اراضی زراعی و مراتع بالا است. اراضی زراعی از 33 درصد به 37 درصد در طی بازه زمانی 28 ساله نوسان داشته و اراضی مرتعی نیز از 51 درصد به 49 درصد کاهش داشته که این دو کاربری بیشترین تغییرات را داشته اند. درنهایت با توجه به اینکه بیشتر تغییرات مربوط در تغییر مرتع به اراضی زراعی و بالعکس بوده است؛ بنابراین لزوم تمرکز فعالیت های مدیریت و اصلاح اراضی بر روی این نوع کاربری افزایش می یابد.

    کلید واژگان: کاربری اراضی، تغییرات، سنجش ازدور، GIS، اوجان چای
    MohammadHossein Rezaei Moghaddam *, Davod Mokhtari, Nasrin Samandar

    Land is one of the inputs of the production sector. It plays an important role not only in the agricultural economy and natural resources but also in the economy of the whole country and it is necessary to pay attention to the land and the changes that have taken place in it. The present study was conducted to investigate the trend of land use change in Ojan Chay catchment using remote sensing and GIS. Multi-timer images of 1987 TM, ETM + 2002, and ETM + 2015 were used in this study, and land use maps were prepared based on digital processing of maximum probability and backup vector machine. The type of land use changes in the region was obtained. According to the results, the SVM method is more efficient for estimating land use changes in the study area so that the extracted results have a higher percentage of accuracy and kappa coefficient. From the results of evaluations, it can be deduced that the trend of land use change in some land uses such as agricultural lands and pastures is high. Agricultural lands have fluctuated from 33% to 37% over a period of 28 years and rangelands have decreased from 51% to 49%, with these two uses having the most changes. Finally, due to the fact that most of the changes in rangeland change have been related to agricultural lands and vice versa, therefore, the need to focus land management and improvement activities on this type of land use increases.

    Keywords: land use, changes Detection, Remote sensing, GIS, Ojan chay
  • احد رنجبری، موسی عابدینی*، داود مختاری، خلیل ولیزاده کامران

    تکتونیک فعال منطقه آذربایجان، هم چون سایر نقاط ایران از همگرایی پوسته های قاره ای اوراسیا و عربی نشات گرفته است. این پویایی منجر به گسلش بخش عمده ای از آن و در نتیجه وقوع زمین لرزه های ویرانگر شده است. شناسایی و استخراج این گسل ها تا حد زیادی می تواند به روشن شدن رفتار تکتونیکی منطقه کمک کند. از این طریق پراکنش فضایی مخاطرات ژیومورفیک شناسایی، پیش بینی و مدیریت می شود. در این راستا، شناسایی گسل های پهنه قوشاداغ و شواهد ژیومورفیک آن ها در شمال غرب ایران هدف کلی این پژوهش انتخاب گردید. این سامانه گسلی به دلیل فقر مطالعاتی تاحدودی ناشناخته مانده بود اما با آغاز فعالیت لرزه ای دوگانه 21 مرداد 1391 مسبب تلفات جانی و مالی زیادی شد. برای استخراج گسل های منطقه، باند 8 تصویر ماهواره لندست 8 سنجنده OLI با ردیف 33 و گذر 168، با باند پانکروماتیک آن (15متر) فیوژن شد. جهت مشاهده بهتر خطواره ها از تکنیک های RGB، PCA، فیلترهای جهت دار و نسبت باندی استفاده گردید سپس خطواره ها از تصاویر Pan Sharp شده در محیط نرم افزار ژیوماتیکا و با اعمال الگوریتم Lineament Extraction استخراج گردید. این فرایند در سه روش دستی، اتوماتیک و نیمه اتوماتیک و با استفاده از نرم افزارهای Envi5.1 و ArcGIS10.4.1 انجام شد. جهت حصول اطمینان از تصاویر سنتینل 2B و اسپات نیز به لحاظ برخی ویژگی ها استفاده شد و در نهایت گسل های استخراجی، با عملیات میدانی، پیمایش زمینی و مشاهدات پدیده های ژیومورفولوژیک مقایسه و تدقیق گردید. نتیجه پژوهش نشان از دقت بالای آن دارد به طوری که با ترکیب روش ها برای اولین بار برخی از گسل های جدید نیز شناسایی شدند.

    کلید واژگان: RS & GIS، 'ژئومورفولوژی تکتونیکی، گسل قوشاداغ، زلزله ارسباران، شمالغرب ایران
    Ahad Ranjbari, Mousa Abedini *, Davod Mokhtari, Khalil Valizadeh Kamran
    Introduction

    Similar to other parts of Iran, Azerbaijan Plateau is active tectonically due to the Eurasia-Arabia cluster convergence, and its hydrogeomorphological impacts are evident as a strike-slip fault, folding, horst, graben, changes in the topography, and drainage system (Abedini, 2016: 75). Therefore, investigating and understanding the function of faults can significantly contribute to analyzing the tectonic activities, the occurrence of earthquakes, their geomorphic hazards as well as the environmental planning and management, the adaptation of the land use, and constructions regarding the tectonic situation of the regions and reduce their hazards.The current research aims to identify the geomorphic hazards caused by the tectonic activities, especially the behavior of faults, for the planning and management before the occurrence of hazards and their resulted crises. In this regard, the principal purpose of this research is to study and identify the faults of the Qoshadagh fault zone and their geomorphic impacts in the northwest of Iran and a part of the structural block of Aras Fault Zone (Berberian & Yeats, 1999).
    Data and

    Methodology

    Three methods of manual, automatic, and mixture were used to precisely extract the region's faults, affected by the doublet seismic activities of 12 August 2012 with the magnitude of 6.4 and 6.2 Richter that had only 6 kilometers and 11-minute distance from each other (Donner et al., 2015). Moreover, survey study and manual measurement of the replacements were used. Hence, Envi 5.1 software was used to apply the techniques and process of images. Also, PCA Geometrica was used to automatically extract the lineaments, and ArcMap 10.4.1 was applied to draw the output map. In the automatic method, Landsat 8 satellite image of OLI sensor with 33 rows and 168 paths was fused with its panchromatic band (15 meters). Then, the edge detection, thresholding, and extraction of fractures were conducted using algorithms. The map of lineaments was prepared using filtering, PCA, and RGB color model in the manual or visual method, and, was adapted using the automatic method.  Images of Sentinel-B2 and Spot were also used due to some properties to ensure. Finally, the obtained lineaments were checked by the field data.  

     Discussion and Conclusion

    After analyzing the automatic method results, applying the lineaments manually along with the field controls, the obtained result is displayed in an overlaying map. Then, by investigating the obtained lineaments and removing the repetitive and incompatible lineaments automatically, and consultant with the tectonics experts and geomorphologists familiar with the region, the lineaments with 80% possibility of being a fault were drawn in a final map of the region’s faults. It is evident that the extraction of the definite faults of the region requires different RS sources, such as radar data, GPS, gravimetric satellites, etc. Rose diagram was used to understand the length and direction of the faults. As a result, the length of the faults was more in 100-280 degree and 145-325 degree, and no-fault was extracted along the 80 degrees, although this length can be seen in the field observations. The results of the field study, overlaying some of the geomorphological effects, including the obstruction and deviation of the waterways, formation of the pressure ridges, and fault pools, have confirmed and improved the software outputs.

    Results

    Using purposive remote sensing along with the field studies can play a significant role in identifying the structural ruptures that are usually hardly visible and emphasize the spatial-temporal changes after the earthquake and its role in reducing the ground hazards (Yang et al., 2017). In this regard, the faults of the Qoshadagh zone were extracted using automatic, manual, and semi-automatic methods with satellite images. The obtained results were compared with the field study and adapted to the effects and fractures caused by the earthquake and the new faults were also identified. The obstruction and deviation of the waterways, fault edges, tension, and pressure ridges, etc., are the most significant evidence that contributed to extracting the fault lineaments using the satellite images. In the current study, the faults of the region were displayed as the fault system instead of single fault lineaments that were in line with the previous studies with a different purpose (Copley et al., 2012; Ghods et al., 2015). Also, the privilege extension of faults in western and eastern directions was identified. Using automatic and manual methods is not sufficient. Therefore, the mixture method was used to obtain better and more precise results. It is evident that the extraction of the definite faults of the region cannot be obtained only by having optical images and other RS resources are required, such as radar data, GPS, and gravimetric satellites (with a high spatial separation). Furthermore, the field control and survey and investigating the geomorphologic forms must be considered an inseparable part of these studies.

    Keywords: RS & GIS, Tectonic Geomorphology, Qoshadagh Fault, Arasbaran Earthquake, Northwest of Iran
  • رضا افروشه، علی اکبر رسولی*، داود مختاری، طاهره جلالی

    به منظور تحلیل رفتار دنباله توزیع و فراوانی رویداد دماهای حدی در استان کرمانشاه طی دوره مطالعاتی (2016-1961) ابتدا روند تغییرات مقادیر حدی با استفاده از آزمون های نا پارامتریک بررسی گردید. سپس با استفاده از مدل بلوک ماکزیما، توزیع GEV به سری داده های موردنظر برازش داده شد و مقادیر چندک متغیرها به ازای دوره های بازگشت مختلف تخمین زده شد. پارامترهای توزیع با استفاده از سه روش گشتاورها، گشتاورهای احتمالی وزن دار و حداکثر درست نمایی برآورد گردید. همچنین به منظور ارزیابی صحت مدل GEV برازش داده شده به رویدادهای حدی، نمودارهای چندک- چندک (Q-Q) برای ایستگاه کرمانشاه ترسیم گردید. نتایج بررسی ها نشان داد که در بین سه روش موردبررسی مقدار خطای استاندارد روش حداکثر درست نمایی کمتر از دو روش دیگر می باشد. با توجه به مقدار پارامتر شکل (ξ) و فاصله اطمینان 95% آن، در هر سه روش موردبررسی، پارامتر شکل در مورد دماهای حدی سرد، صفر را در برمی گیرد لذا تبعیت داده ها از نوع GEV نوع اول یا گامبل است. توزیع سری زمانی دماهای حدی گرم در ایستگاه کرمانشاه چوله به چپ بوده و تبعیت داده ها از توزیع GEV نوع سوم یا ویبول می باشد. با توجه به یافته های تحقیق تابع توزیع GEV قابلیت زیادی در برازش سری داده های حدی دارد.

    کلید واژگان: توزیع مقادیر حدی تعمیم یافته، رویدادهای حدی، دماهای حدی، دوره بازگشت، کرمانشاه
    Reza Afrousheh, Ali Akbar Rasoli *, Davod Mokhtari, Tahereh Jalali
    Introduction 

    Changes in occurrence and frequency of extreme events can have more severe and damage effects than changes in the average climatic characteristics (Choi et al, 2008). Therefore, it is important to study the variability and change the behavior of extreme atmospheric events. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the temperature extreme events using the distribution of generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) and non-parametric methods in Kermanshah province. The results of this study can be effective in providing the necessary context for assessing the extent of vulnerability and adaptation methods and strategies to deal with it.

    Methodology 

    The study area in the present study is Kermanshah province. Because to study the extreme events, the length of the statistical period should be long-term, so in this study, the data of Kermanshah synoptic station, which has a statistical period of 56 years (1961-2016), was used. First, the maximum and minimum daily temperature data for the study period were obtained from the Meteorological Organization of the country and after reconstructing the incomplete data, the quality of the data was checked. The data series were first analyzed by trend and then analyzed by frequency of boundary events. To study and analyze the trend of marginal events, the indicators presented by the National Climate Committee of the World Meteorological Organization and the Climate Change and Prediction Research Program, called ETCCDMI, have been used. In total, the group provided 16 main indices with a major emphasis on temperature limits that can be extracted from a series of recorded daily data (Zhang et al., 2006: 2014.(

    Results and Discussion

    Generalized Extreme Value Distribution The present study aimed to analyze the changes in temperature extreme events in the study period using generalized extreme value distribution in Kermanshah province. According to the statistics and information of meteorological stations, this region has a drastic change in terms of climate and is affected every year by dry days without successive rains on the one hand or sudden heavy rains on the other, with a sharp rise or fall in temperature. The results of the Maxima block methods showed that in the study area, the intensity and frequency of cold border events decreased and the intensity and frequency of hot border events increased. Warm nights mean an increase in the percentage of days when the minimum daily temperature is above 90 and hot days mean a percentage of days when the maximum daily temperature is above 90 . The incremental trend is the highest annual value of the minimum daily temperature at the 95% level. The slope of the trend line for the index is 0.04 C in the decade.

    Conclusion 

    The results showed that concerning cold extreme indices such as frost days, ice days, cold days and nights, the direction of change is negative and with hot extreme indices such as summer days, tropical nights, nights and Hot days the direction of change is positive with a confidence level of 99 percent. Since the rate of increase of the minimum temperature was higher than the maximum temperature, the range of the day and night temperature in the region has decreased. Also, graphs of the values ​​of minimum and maximum temperature polynomials in years of return T with a 95 percent confidence interval were plotted. According to the above diagrams, we can estimate the extreme values ​​of the desired parameter for the specified return period.

    Keywords: Generalized Extreme Values Distribution, Extreme Events, Extreme temperatures, Return Period, Kermanshah
  • داود مختاری*، محمدحسین رضایی مقدم، توحید رحیم پور، سمیه معزز

    مناطق کوهستانی شمال ‏غرب کشور به‏ دلیل توپوگرافی خاص خود و بارش تقریبا مناسب طی سال و به‏ خصوص در فصل بهار، ازجمله مناطق مستعد وقوع مخاطره سیل هستند. تحقیق حاضر با هدف تهیه نقشه پهنه‏ بندی خطر وقوع سیلاب در حوضه آبریز گمناب چای واقع در استان آذربایجان شرقی انجام‏ گرفته است. برای تهیه نقشه پهنه ‏بندی خطر وقوع سیل از 10 فاکتور موثر در وقوع این پدیده استفاده شده است که عبارت ‏اند از: بارش، لیتولوژی، کاربری اراضی، شیب، تراکم پوشش گیاهی، شاخص قدرت آبراهه، شاخص رطوبت توپوگرافیک، تراکم زهکشی، شاخص حمل رسوب، ضریب گراویلیوس. به ‏منظور وزن دهی معیارها در تحقیق حاضر از روش تحلیل شبکه‏ای (ANP) و نرم ‏افزار Super Decisions استفاده شد. نتایج نهایی به دست آمده از تحقیق حاضر نشان داد وزن معیارهای 10 گانه یادشده به ترتیب 271/0، 201/0، 150/0، 118/0، 081/0، 056/0، 043/0، 032/0، 025/0 و 018/0 است که معیارهای بارش، لیتولوژی، کاربری اراضی و شیب بیشترین وزن را داشته ‏اند. درنهایت، با تلفیق این لایه ‏ها با توجه به وزنشان در محیط GIS، نقشه پهنه ‏بندی به‏ دست ‏آمد. نتایج نشان داد 210 کیلومترمربع (50 درصد) از مساحت منطقه در معرض خطر وقوع سیلاب قرار دارد. بنابراین، لزوم مدیریت آب‏های سطحی در منطقه به ‏منظور جلوگیری از وقوع سیل و همچنین بهره ‏برداری مناسب از آب‏های منطقه ضروری به نظر می‏رسد.

    کلید واژگان: حوضه آبریز گمناب چای، سیل، مدل ANP، Super Decisions
    Davod Mokhtari *, MohammadHossein Rezaei Moghaddam, Tohid Rahimpour, Somayyeh Moazzez

    The mountainous areas of northwest of the country are susceptible to flood risk due to their topography and relatively good rainfall throughout the year, especially in spring. The aim of this study was to prepare map of the risk of flooding in the Gomanab Chai catchment, which located in the East Azerbaijan province. 10 effective factors in the occurrence of this phenomenon, such as Precipitation, Lithology, Land use, Slope, Vegetation density, Stream Power Index, Topographic wetness index, Drainage density, Sediment Transport Index, Gravelius coefficient were used to prepare the zoning map. Network Analysis Method (ANP) and Super Decisions software were used to weighting the criteria in this study. The final results obtained from the present study showed that the weight of the 10 criteria were 0.271, 0.201, 0.150, 0.118, 0.081, 0.056, 0.043, 0.032, 0.025 and 0.018 respectively. Precipitation, lithology, land use and slope had the highest weights, respectively. Finally, by combining these layers according to their weight in GIS, the zoning map was obtained. The results showed that 210 km2 (50%) of the area is at risk of flooding. Therefore, the necessity of managing surface water in the area seems necessary in order to prevent flooding as well as proper exploitation of the waters of the area.

    Keywords: Flood, ANP model, Super Decisions, Ghomnab Chai Basin
  • شبنم محمودی*، داود مختاری، محمدحسین رضایی مقدم، عباس مرادی

    احداث تاسیسات و تعیین حاشیه امن ساحلی، بدون آگاهی از رفتار خط ساحلی امکانپذیر نیست و اتلاف هزینه و مخاطرات زیادی را بدنبال دارد. هدف این پژوهش، بررسی تغییرات خط ساحلی بخشی از ساحل شهر جاسک، واقع در شرق استان هرمزگان است. در این تحقیق به منظور تفسیر بصری از تصاویر لندست متعلق به 16 می 2016 و 15 می،1989، ترکیب رنگی کاذب ساخته شد. و مرز بین خشکی و آب با استفاده از عملگرهای طیفی در محیط Arc Map مشخص گردید سپس میزان تغییرات خطوط ساحلی در دو مقطع زمانی با استفاده از پلی گون تغییرات برآورد شد. از تصاویر ماهواره ای گوگل ارث برای بررسی و نشان دادن بخش هایی از ساحل استفاده گردید. بر اساس نتایج این پژوهش، در ساحل شرقی مساحت مناطق دارای پیشروی بیش از پسروی است اما در ساحل غربی عکس این مسئله دیده می شود. در مجموع تغییرات در ساحل شرقی بیش از ساحل غربی است علت تغییرات بیشتر، در ساحل شرقی می تواند نتیجه ساخت سه اسکله جدید دارای موج شکن باشد که بعد از سال 2006 سال ساخته شده است. بالا آمدگی سواحل به علت فرورانش صفحه عمان نیز می تواند از عوامل طبیعی تغییرات خط ساحلی باشد.

    کلید واژگان: مدلسازی خط ساحلی، RS & GIS، بندرجاسک، دریای عمان
    Shabnam Mahmoudi *, Davod Mokhtari, MohamadHossein Rezai Moghadam, Abbas Moradi
    Introduction

    Erosion involves the retreat or advancement of the coastline, is the one of the recent problems of communities along the coast and the existing infrastructure located near the estuary system. Environmentally, coastal areas are of great importance and value due to their sensitive and productive ecosystems. Short-term or long-term coastline changes are important in the situation and geometry of coastlines and coastal management. Awareness of coastline behavior helps to manage beaches when designing and constructing coastal facilities and determining the safe margin of the coast. This article tries to modeling the changes in the coastline of East and West Bandar jask(southern Iran) in a timespan, a step towards coastal management for the planning and operation of facilities of Jask Port, which can be follow the future development of the area.

     Methodology

    The study area is part of the coast of Jask city located in Jask county in southern Iran. For this purpose, the extent of coastline changes to determine the boundary line between land and water was examined. To be more precise, spectral operators were used in the Arc map environment and Landsat satellite imagery; the next step was to polygonize the shoreline according to the fixed landline on land. In addition, Google Earth satellite imagery was used to examine and mark some case-by-case changes, such as cape changes in the western part of the port of Jask and so on.

     Results and Discussion

    The dynamics of coastlines and their variability (affected by lithology and wave activity), the shape of coastlines and their effect on erosion and location of coastal sediments, resources and location of sediment accumulation and hydrodynamics of areas close to coastlines, the intensity of seasonal winds and its role in transmission Sediment transfer and erosion mechanisms, and ultimately, human activities, are among the factors influencing coastline changes. The shape of the shores was examined using the Hausdorff-Pesikovtch method. Accordingly, the rate of change in the area of polygons on the east coast (progress) is higher than on the west coast (retrograde). The reason for the progress on the East Coast could be the construction of new piers, tidal performance, the shape of the beach and how it is positioned against the waves. Overall, Oman's beaches are uplifted, which could be the reason for the retrograde; however, the drying up of the coast in order to build piers and breakwaters has led to the advance of the coast.

     conclusion

    Prove the existence of progress on the east coast due to the construction of three new piers (after 2006) and the presence of retrograde on the west coast due to the existing natural mechanisms of the region such as the uplift of Oman coast, is the most important finding of this study. The shape of the beach and the way it escapes from the waves due to the prevailing wind direction (from the southeast) on the east coast has intensified the effect of the human factor.

    Keywords: Coastline changes, Spectral operators, remote sensing, Bandar Jask, Southern Iran
  • معصومه رجبی، داود مختاری، میرابراهیم هاشمیان*

    مخروط افکنه ها، از بارزترین لندفرم های ژیومورفولوژی رودخانه ای هستند که به عنوان  پدیده ای ژیومورفیک، نسبت به تغییرات تکتونیکی واکنش نشان می دهند و می توان از آنها به عنوان ابزاری، جهت شناخت سیمای تکتونیکی مناطق بهره گرفت. در این پژوهش ابتدا ، مخروط افکنه ها و حوضه های آبریز مربوطه واقع در دامنه شمالی بزقوش از نظر ویژگی مورفومتری (تعداد، مساحت، حجم، نحوه پراکنش) و فیزیو گرافی (طول، مساحت، ارتفاع) استخراج و با بکارگیری5شاخص ژیومورفیک (β، AF، BS، Hi، SL) وضعیت نسبی فعالیت تکتونیکی منطفه ارزیابی گردید. پارامترهای مورد نیازپژوهش شامل (R، S، Hوα) و دیگر پارامترها از طریق تهیه DEM منطقه و همچنین رقومی کردن نقشه های زمین شناسی، گردآوری و جهت انجام محاسبات مربوط به حجم مخروط افکنه ها به ترتیب از روش های چرچ ، گیلز و نرخ بالاآمدگی حوضه های آبریز از مدل نیروی جریان و نرم افزار های  ArcGIS، CADوMATLAB استفاده گردید. سپس بین نتایج بدست آمده روابط همبستگی برقرار گردید. نتایج نشان داد؛ رابطه معناداری بین مساحت حوضه آبریز (BA) و حجم مخروط ها (V) وجود ندارد، در مقابل رابطه مستقیم و معناداری با ضریب همبستگی 78/. بین نرخ بالاآمدگی حوضه ها و حجم مخروط افکنه ها مشاهده گردید.در این راستا با تهیه نقشه های زمین شناسی و موقعیت گسلهای منطقه و همپوشانی آن با محدوده حوضه های آبریز و مخروط افکنه ها، مشخص گردید که تشکیل مخروط افکنه های حجیم (بیجند، اله حق) با وجود دو خط گسلی معکوس و نرمال امتدادلغز راستگرد بالادستی (در خروجی حوضه) همخوانی دارد. برطبق نتایج حاصله، در شرایط مورفوکلیمایی کنونی، می توان تکتونیک را عامل  اصلی در افزایش یا کاهش حجم مخروط افکنه ها محسوب نمود.

    کلید واژگان: حجم مخروط افکنه، شاخص های ژئومورفیک، نرخ بالاآمدگی، تکتونیک فعال، بزقوش
    Masomeh Rajabei, Davod Mokhtari, MirEbrahim Hashemian*

    Alluvial fans are the most obvious Landforms of fluvial geomorphology which react to changes in tectonic as geomorphic phenomena, and they can be used as a tool for identifying of the tectonic aspect of regions. In this research at first, alluvial fans and their drainage basins located in the northern slopes in Bozqush were extracted in terms of morphometric (area, volume, distribution) and physiographic features (length, area, height) and the relative status of regional tectonic activity was evaluated by using 5 Geomorphic Indicators (α, AF, Bs, Hi, SL).The required parameters consisted of (R, S, H and α) and the other parameters were collected through DEM as well as digital geological maps. The Church Giles methods and Stream power model were used for computing the volume of alluvial fans and the uplift rate of watersheds by using ArcGIS, CAD and MATLAB softwares. Then Correlation was established between the results. Results showed that there is no significant relationship between the catchment area (BA) and the Volume of Alluvial Fans (V); in contrast, a significant and direct relationship was observed with a correlation coefficient 78% between the basin uplift rate and volume of fans. In this regard, by providing  geological maps and location of the faults and its overlap with watershed and alluvial fans, It was found that the formation of large alluvial fans (Bijand, Elahagh) is consistent with upper two reverse and normal strike-slip fault lines (at the outlet of the basin). According to the results, in the current Morph-climatic conditions, tectonic can be considered as a major factor in increase or decrease of the volume of alluvial fans.

    Keywords: Alluvial Fan Volume, geomorphic indicators, uplift rate, Active Tectonic, Bozqush
  • شبنم محمودی، داود مختاری*، محمدحسین رضایی مقدم، محمد اکبریان، عباس مرادی
    تپه‏ های ماسه ‏ای مانعی در برابر امواج ‏اند و می ‏توانند سواحل را از فرسایش حفظ کنند. بنابراین، حفاظت از این تپه ‏ها امری مهم و نیازمند مدیریت است. هدف از این پژوهش بررسی میزان آسیب پذیری تپه های ماسه‏‏ ای واقع در حد فاصل بندر سیریک تا بندر زیارت در جنوب ‏شرق استان هرمزگان است، زیرا ساخت اسکله‏ های جدید در سال‏های اخیر به تغییراتی در ساحل این منطقه منجر شده است. بنابراین، آگاهی از وضعیت آسیب پذیری تپه های ساحلی می‏ تواند در مدیریت و حفاظت این تپه ‏ها اثربخش باشد. در این پژوهش، عوامل موثر در آسیب پذیری تپه های ماسه‏ ای ساحلی، شامل شرایط ژئومورفولوژی تپه های ماسه ‏ای، عوامل دریایی، فرایندهای بادی، پوشش گیاهی، تاثیر فعالیت‏های انسانی، و عامل مدیریتی، با استفاده از چک ‏لیست، ارزیابی شد. داده ‏های استفاده ‏شده شامل داده ‏های آماری، داده ‏های مکانی، بازدیدهای میدانی، تصاویر ماهواره‏ ای، عکس‏ هوایی، و نتایج گرانومتری است. نتایج نشان داد میزان شاخص آسیب پذیری (DVI) در همه محوطه ‏ها متوسط است. همچنین، مشخص شد در میان عوامل مورد بررسی، عامل وضعیت ژئومورفولوژیک تپه های ماسه ‏ای و سپس فرایندهای بادی به ‏ترتیب بیشترین تاثیر را در آسیب پذیری تپه‏ ها دارند. ارزیابی شاخص تعادل نشان داد تعادل میان آسیب‏ پذیری و مدیریت تپه‏ ها در هیچ کدام از محوطه ‏ها وجود ندارد که دلیل آن می‏ تواند نبود متولی مشخصی در زمینه مدیریت اجرایی حفاظت از سواحل باشد.
    کلید واژگان: آسیب‏ پذیری، بندر زیارت، بندر سیریک، تپه‏ های ماسه‏ ای ساحلی
    Shabnam Mahmoodi, Davod Mokhtari *, Mohammad Hosin Rezai Moghadam, Mohammad Akbarian, Abbas Moradi
    Introduction
    Coastal sand dunes are one of the important morphological forms of coastal areas that form behind the coast. These hills have been caused by interactions of sea waves, sea currents, winds and sediment materials on the coast. Sand dunes can protect the coast against waves and erosion, so protecting these hills is important and requires management. Study area is located between the Sirik port and the port of Ziarat, in the southeast of Hormozgan province. Since the construction of new docks in recent years has led to changes in the coast of this region, so awareness of the vulnerability of coastal hills can be effective in managing and protecting these hills. The purpose of this study was to assessing vulnerability of sand dunes by model DVI ( dune vulnerability index). Checklist was used to evalouated to vulnerability index. In this research, effective factors in coastal sand dunes, geomorphologic conditions of sand dunes, marine factors, wind processes, vegetation, effects of human activities and management factor were evaluated using checklist.
    Materials and methods
    In this study, data from Google Earth, Landsat, and aerial photos, and questionnaires and field operations were used to complete the checklist. The steps to complete the checklist are as follows: in the first step, the value range for the quantitative variables was determined on the basis of the available structured checklists .Partial vulnerability indices geomorphological condition (GC), marine influence (MI), aeolian influence (AI), vegetation condition (VC) and anthropogenic effects (AE) were calculated as the ratio between the summations of given variable ranks within each variable class (PVi) and the total maximum possible rank within the class. A total DVI ( total Dune Vulnerability Index) was calculated as the average of the five partial vulnerability indices (PV) as per. The protection measure index (PM) was calculated separately from other factors. Lastly, the residual value as the difference between DVI and PM (DVI-PM) has been calculated to describe the stability of the dune system. In the studies by Davis (1995) to calculate the vulnerability index, referred to as (VI) the calculation of the partial Vulnerability Index is not done, and the vulnerability score from the division of the total variables obtained from all the group of variables, based on the maximum total sum of the concessions of the entire group of variables, is obtained for each site.
    Results and discussion
    Partial vulnerability (Pv), for geomorphologic agent, is above 0.75 in all sites and the degree of vulnerability is very severe because of characteristics of the sand dunes of the region, including low height, slopes over 30 degrees of their upward slopes, fine-to-good sorting. The vulnerability to wind processes in all areas is above 0.5 and shows a high sensitivity to this factor. One of the reasons for wind processes is the small average of the diameter of coastal sediments in this area, because fine sands are exposed to retrogressive waves and are more sensitive to erosion, so beaches with fine sand grains have less resistance to erosion have. The low vegetation of the hills in the side of the sea, in the distance between the hills and the maximum of fashion and the relatively high percentage of uncovered areas, are other factors of high hills' sensitivity to wind processes. The degree of vulnerability to vegetation condition is very severe in sites 4, 5 and 6, and is low in enclosures 1, 2 and 3. Compared with 1966 aerial photos and satellite imagery from 2000 to 2016, vegetation increased than in 1966 and 2000, due to planting and plant care by government office like office of resource natural in Hormozgan. The level of vulnerability to the human factors of sites 1 and 2 is modest and in the rest of the sites is negligible. With the use of aerial photographs and satellite imagery, during the years mentioned above, the amount of roads in this area has been increased and in some areas the road passes through the hills. During these years, some parts of the hill for construction have been cleared. In addition, the construction of three new berths of 3 Sirik (2007), Ziarat (2012) and Taheroi port (2013) has also been associated with shore changes. Due to the field visits and the results of the questionnaires( interviews with local people and experts) show no management action such as specifying areas with access restrictions, and so on to protecting beaches. The only protective action is the planting of seedlings in sites 1, 2 and 3, The only protective action is the planting of seedlings in sites 1, 2 and 3, by natural resources office. Coclusion: The overall vulnerability (DVI) in all areas was moderate. Among the investigated factors, the morphological status of sand dunes, the factor of wind processes, have the most effect on the vulnerability of hills. The results for the DVI-PM index indicate that all sites need quick management. Based on the obtained equilibrium index, there is no equilibrium between vulnerability and hill management in any of the sites indicating lack of management or inadequacy. One of the reasons for lack of management or efficent management seems to be that is not a certain organization responsible in this regard. Comparison of the two methods for the calculation of vulnerability, the first method (DiPanjun, 2014) and the second method (Davis, 1995) shows that In both methods, the severity of the vulnerability of the sites is moderate. There is no difference between the qualitive results obtained in two methods.
    Keywords: coastal sand dunes, &quot, vulnerability&quot, Sirik port, Ziarat port
  • شهرام روستایی *، داود مختاری، زهرا اشرفی فینی
    امروزه، اینترفرومتری تفاضلی راداری(DInSAR) به عنوان یکی از روش های کارآمد در اندازه گیری جابجایی سطح زمین محسوب میشود. به طوری که با استفاده از این فناوری، امکان پایش حرکات کوچک سطح زمین به صورت پیوسته، با دقت بالا و در گستره وسیعی امکان پذیراست. در این پژوهش، از تکنیک اینترفرومتری تفاضلی بر اساس سری زمانی 29 تصویر راداری سنجنده ASAR ماهواره Envisat در بازه زمانی سال 2003 الی 2009 جهت شناسایی و پایش مناطق ناپایدار حوضه آبریز طالقان استفاده گردید. نتایج حاصله از این تحقیق بر اساس مشاهدات میدانی مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت. براساس نتایج این تحقیق 17 پهنه ناپایدار در بازه زمانی فوق شناسایی شد که بزرگترین آن ها از نوع لغزش مرکب میناوند با میزان جابجایی 5/2 سانتی متر در این مدت جابجایی داشته است و همچنین کوچکترین پهنه لغزشی به نام لغزش زیدشت از نوع چرخشی با 5/1 سانتی متر در بازه زمانی فوق جابجایی داشته است . انطباق موقعیت مکانی زمین لغزش های شناسایی با برخی مناطق لغزشی قدیمی بیانگر فعالی بودن پهنه های لغزشی پیشین منطقه است. از نظر توزیع مکانی، مناطق لغزشی شناسایی شده عمدتا در مجاورت شبکه زهکشی و مناطق مسکونی حوضه قرار داشته و این امر ضمن اشاره به تاثیر شبکه زهکشی در وقوع ناپایداری دامنه ای، در ارتباط با جابجایی و انتقال مواد گسیخته شده به داخل شبکه هیدروگرافی و افزایش بار رسوبی رودخانه و دریاچه سد طالقان نیز حائز اهمیت است.نتایج به دست آمده در این بازه زمانی حاکی از آن است مناطق ناپایدار در دامنه های غربی با دقت بالائی نسبت به شیب های شرقی آشکارسازی شده اند.میانگین میزان جابجایی محاسبه شده این پهنه های لغزشی در این دوره 6- تا 13 میلی متر می باشد. مهم ترین نقطه لغزشی شناسایی شده در دوره اخیر، توده لغزشی میناوند و زیدشت می باشند که در مجاورت سد طالقان و مناطق مسکونی قرار دارند.
    کلید واژگان: ناپایداری دامنه ای، اینترفرومتری تفاضلی، تصاویر راداری، حوضه آبریز طالقان
    shahram roostaei*, Davod Mokhtari, zahra Ashrafi fini

    Nowadays, differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar (DInSAR) is one the most practical techniques measuring earth surface movement. Using this technology makes continuously monitoring of small earth surface movements with high precision and in a wide range Possible. By studying the ground surface displacement, we can find effective parameters influencing the Earth's displacement process, which will be effective in geophysical modeling and determination of the necessary strategies to deal with this type of phenomenon. Landslide is considered as one of the geophysical phenomenal of sloping instabilities that causes displacement of landslide along the tilt direction. These displacements cause dramatic financial losses and heavy casualties.
    Materials and Methods
    In this study, the detection of active landslides and their displacement in the Taleghan watershed have been resolved by differential interferometry processing using satellite radar images of Envisat- ASAR satellite in high-pass mode. The required radar images were provided by submitting a research proposal on the University of Delft website while having their consent. Analysis of Taleghan watershed basin radar images for its specifications was done using the EOLI-SA software. 29 images of SAR sensor from Envisat- ASAR satellite were used at present study. Images used are obtained by descending imaging geometry technique (located on the North-South circle of latitude), which are produced by the C band wavelength from the microwave spectrum of electromagnetic waves (λ = 5.6 cm). These images are corrected by Scan Line corrector (SLC) and were collected since 2003 till 2009. Differential interferometry processes were performed to detect landslides locations and calculate their displacements by ENVI 4.2 software. The entire process was carried out through field surveys and a digital elevation model. The final stage of differential interferometry process is transformation of absolute phase to the displacement map and geocoding which is based on the elliptical surface of the WGS84 metric image system.Since there was no direct measurement of dissociated surfaces dislocation in the studied area, the aim of this study was accuracy assessment of archived results by field surveys and overlapping them with the Google Earth software.

    Resutls anddiscussion
    Results of processing differential radar interferometry of pair images were collected since July 18, 2003 till March 31, 2009. In this study, a total number of 17 slide bulks were selected in the Taleghan watershed based on field observations. Then, the level of instability of these bulks was analyzed using SAR sensor images for the mentioned period.
    Most identified landslides were in the vicinity of residential villages and riverside networks, and their spatial distribution shows that most of the identified areas are matched with previous landslides.In other words, some of the old landslides in the region are still active. Among these slide bulks, Zidasht sliding zone with 7.2 km length is the smallest one on the eastern slope of the basin and the Minavand slippery zone with 4206 km length is located on the western slope of the basin.One of the important points of the chosen sliding bulks is their proximity to residential areas located in the basin. The largest displacement occurred at the surface of Composite slide bulks, as per maximum amount of depression happened in Minavand slide bulk and was 2.5 cm.The spatial distribution of the identified landslides resulted from the processing of coupled radar images and their examination indicates that the largest displacement has happened since 2004 till 2008.Comparison of radar images shows that although these slide bulks were in the northeastern and upstream of hillsides and rivers in the past, they are now located in the western direction, and some landslides which were active in previous periods, haven’t shown any change in their surface during this period and the amount of displacement observed was lower than before.
    Conclusions
    The results showed that some of the slopes of the Taleghan watershed are still unstable and the compatibleness of landslide site location with some old landslide implies the activeness of old landslides of the region.The findings of this research have been evaluated through field observations and determination of the slide bulks by evaluating radar images. Also results indicated that all sliding surfaces were detected with high precision. Therefore, it can be declared that the differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar method (DInSAR) is an efficient technique for identifying the landslides.Field observations showed that most of identified landslides conform to the old ones. Also displacements at the surface of these landslides determined to be still active. At present, the slide bulks of Minavand and Mehran are considered as the most active and dangerous slide bulks of all kind.
    Keywords: slope instability, Differential interferometry, radar images, taleghan watershed
  • محمدحسین رضایی مقدم، محمدرضا نیکجو، داود مختاری، احمد فاخری فرد، کاظم خوشدل
    حوضه کلیبرچای در شمال غربی کشور ایران قرارگرفته است. این پژوهش پلان قوسی رودخانه کلیبرچای (از شهر کلیبر تا روستای جانانلو) را مطالعه نموده است. این محدوده رودخانه کلیبرچای با طول 70 کیلومتر است. کانال در پلان قوسی دارای الگوهای کانال راست، موجی، مئاندری و گیسویی (قیطانی) است. مطالعات پلان قوسی رودخانه در رابطه با فرآیندهای فعال مختلف در کانال رودخانه و ارتباط متقابل بین پارامترهای هیدرولوژیکی و مواد رودخانه را نشان می دهد. تغییرات پیوسته در شاخص سینوسی در کانال نشانه هایی از تغییر در رفتار رودخانه است. برای انجام این پژوهش از تصاویر Google earth و DEM ده متری منطقه استفاده شد. جهت سهولت در مطالعه، رودخانه به چهار بازه تقسیم گردید. در بازه بندی رودخانه شرایط توپوگرافیک و نظر کارشناسی نگارندگان در نظر گرفته شد. شاخص سینوسی رودخانه در چهار بازه به وسیله نرم افزار Arc GIS طبق فرمول TSI=محاسبه گردید. در فرمول ذکرشده TCI شاخص سینوسی توپوگرافیک، CLطول کانال رودخانه و AL طول هوایی ابتدا و انتهای کانال است. بیشترین شاخص سینوسی برای امتداد رودخانه رودخانه کلیبرچای حدود 1 تا 3/1 است و نشان می دهد بیش از 70 درصد رودخانه در گروه مئاندری قرار می گیرند. فرسایش و فرآیندهای رسوبی به علت مئاندری بودن رودخانه با سیل های بهاری و پاییزی منطقه رخ می دهد. تنوع در نوع مواد و اندازه باعث فرسایش و افتادن کناره که منجر به تغییرات در کانال ها و پیچش ها در شاخص سینوسی می شود. مطالعه شاخص سینوسی و شناسایی الگوی رودخانه ها باعث سهولت در برنامه ریزی می گردد.
    کلید واژگان: مئاندر، شاخص سینوسی، کلیبرچای، پلان، GIS
    Mohammad Hossein Rezaei Mogaddam, Mohammadreza Nikjoo, Davod Mokhtari, Ahmad Fakeri Far, Kazem Koshdel
    The streams of rivers are extremely complex in nature. Rivers are beneficial for natural vegetation, animals, living organisms and human communities. The river provides the possibility of drinking water and irrigation of agricultural fields. Rivers are considered as active land cultivators with erosion and sedimentation. Some of the negative effects of rivers such as floods are considered as a natural disaster. Such natural disasters have been shown when the river by anthropogenic activities by changing the shape of the river and arched their plans change. Meandering parts of the rivers are vulnerable to floods. Therefore, river studies are very important in terms of hydraulic characteristics, sediment, width to depth ratio, morphology and arched plan. Kaleibar Chai basin has located on the North West of the country. This research pays attention to the arcuate plan of Kaleibar River from the city of Kaleibar to Jananloo village (one of the branches of Aras River). The study region is part of Kaleibar Chai River with 72 km of length. The channel consists of right, waving, meandering, and braided patterns. The study of horizontal plan of the river in relation to different active processes shows the mutual relationship between hydrological parameters and the materials in the river. The continual changes in sinuosity index in the channel are indicators of variations in the river behavior. For doing this research we used Google Earth and DEM 10m images. The river was divided into 4 openings in which topographic conditions were considered. The river sinuosity index was calculated for all 4 openings in GIS software under the formula: TSI= . In this equation TCI is topographic sinuosity index, CL is the length of the river channel, Al is the aerial length of the beginning and ending part of the channel. The maximum sinuosity index for different lengths of the Kaleibar Chai River was estimated at 1.05 to 1.83. The heterogeneity of bed materials causes erosion and deposition on the river bed of Kaleibar Chai. Erosion and depositional processes occur in the area during the spring and fall floods. The variety of materials and their sizes cause erosion and the collapse of the brinks and the loop in sinuosity index, which finally lead to channel changes. The study of sinuosity index and the identification of rivers patterns help ease the planning procedure
    Keywords: Meander, Sinuosity Index, Kaleibar Chai, Plan, GIS
  • آرش زندکریمی، داود مختاری
    برآورد دقیق خصوصیات کمی و کیفی پدیده‏های طبیعی مستلزم صرف زمان و هزینه زیاد ‏است. در این راستا، درون‏یابی روشی کارآمد شناخته‏شده است که، با ارائه و تعمیم مقادیر نقطه‏ای به سطح، صرفه‏جویی در وقت و هزینه را فراهم کرده است. الگوریتم‏های مختلف درون‏یابی مدل‏سازی مقادیر را مقدور می‏سازد که گام مهمی در مدیریت منابع محسوب می‏شود. با توجه به اینکه صحت داده‏های ورودی در تحلیل‏ها و تصمیم‏گیری‏ها از اهمیت خاصی برخوردار است، در تحقیق حاضر به ارزیابی دقت حاصله استفاده از 10 الگوریتم مختلف درون‏یابی در تخمین مقادیر بارش پرداخته شده است. در این تحقیق از Cross - Validation به منظور مقایسه الگوریتم‏های مختلف استفاده شده است. همچنین، مدل‏ها با استفاده از ریشه متوسط مربع خطا (RMSE) ، میانگین خطای مطلق (MAE) ، معیار اریب خطا (MBE) ، و ضریب تبیین (R2) مقایسه آماری شده‏اند. نتایج به‏دست‏آمده از ارزیابی دقت نشان می‏دهد که روش Ordinary Kriging با مدل تابع Circular با 0. 05- MBE=، 53. 37MAE=، 77. 31RMSE=، و 0. 70 R2 = نسبت به سایر مدل‏ها از اعتبار بیشتری برخوردار است و مناسب‏‏ترین روش درون‏یابی پراکنش مقادیر بارش در استان کردستان ‏است. با توجه به ماهیت مقایسه ای این تحقیق، نتایج آن برای شناسایی روش‏های بهینه درون‏یابی پراکنش بارش در مناطق کوهستانی از اهمیت بسیاری زیادی برخوردار ‏است.
    کلید واژگان: ارزیابی دقت، استان کردستان، تخمین مقادیر بارش، درون‏یابی
    arash zandkarimi, davod mokhtari
     
    Introduction
    Environmental management requires continuous spatial information of the environmental variables. However, many of these data are taken discretely and point by point. Therefore, the methods to convert point data to continuous data have become indispensable tools (Lee et al., 2014: 173). The spatial interpolation makes able the conversion of point data to area data (Chang, 2004: 275) by predicting the values of a main point variable in the sample area (Barov and Daniel, 1998: 244). There are different algorithms for spatial interpolation (Faraji Sabokbar and Azizi, 2006: 1), which generally fall into two deterministic and geo-statistics categories (Mir Mousavi et al., 2009: 107). In deterministic methods (Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW), Radial Basis Function (RBF), and so on), interpolation is done according to the level of the sampling points and similarities. However, geo-statistical methods (Kriging) of spatial correlation quantity consider sampling points, and estimates based on the location of the non-measured samples (Taze et al., 2008: 8).
    Materials and Methods
    In this study, in order to assess the accuracy of the various interpolation methods to estimate the rainfall distribution of Kurdistan Province, pluviometry stations, synoptic, and climatology data were used. After reviewing the statistical situation of the stations, statistical period of 2001-2013 has been selected, and among all stations in the basin, stations, which had had 12 years of full or recyclable statistics until 2013 were selected for the study. It must be noted that the selection of the stations was according to their statistics rebuilt, by the application of the highest correlation with the adjacent stations method. Finally, data quality and data sets normality were recorded, and were evaluated by using Komogorov-Smirnov and Chi square X2 statistical tests. In addition, the digital elevation model data, collected by the SRTM satellite sensors with spatial resolution of 30 m, as well as analytic functions of the ArcGIS 10.2.2, Surfer 11, and IBM SPSS Statistics 22 software were used. After reviewing the data of the available stations (77 pluviometry stations, 22 synoptic and climatology stations of the Meteorology Organization, and 76 pluviometry and evaporation stations of the Department of Energy), according to the statistical course of the stations, and with regard to the missing rainfall data in the reconstruction, the least common period of it should not be less than 10 years (Sun and Patterson, 2006: 1990). The normality of the test data was done, and 145 stations were selected for analyzing of the interpolation methods, and choosing the best method. The methods used in this study were Inverse Distance Weighting, Spline (with Tension, Thin Plate and Completely Regular functions), Ordinary Kriging (with Circular, Spherical, Exponential, and Gussian functions), and Universal Kriging (with Rational Quadratic and Liner functions) are. Figure2 shows the steps of the study to select data and the most optimal method.
    Results and Discussion
    After depicting the spatial rainfall data, the normal distribution of them was investigated by Komogorov - Smirnov and Chi square X2. The results showed that the data distribution at the level of 95% has no significant difference with a normal distribution. In order to analyze the accuracy of the various interpolation methods, the models were implemented using the GIS Arc Software. By applying each of these models on rainfall data, the maps were obtained (Figure 5). In order to evaluate and determine the most optimal model, the validity and the accuracy of the maps were evaluated. As it mentioned in the previous section, the more the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and the closer Mean Bias Error (MBE) to zero, the accuracy of the model is higher. On the other hand, the less the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and the higher the correlation coefficient (R2), the model error is less. Table1 shows the error rate of implementation of the interpolation methods. Based on the findings of the study, the lowest error observed belongs to the Ordinary Kriging Method of interpolation with the circular function. After that, it belongs to the General Kriging Method with the Quadratic Variogram. In general, the Kriging method provides a higher accuracy than the other methods.
    Conclusion
    In this study, the accuracy of the various algorithms was compared in the interpolation of rainfall distribution in Kurdistan Province. To compare the actual results, the same conditions were used to assess the accuracy. Then the most important methods of the validity were extracted and identified: Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Bias Error (MBE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and correlation coefficient (R2). Ordinary Kriging Method of interpolation with the circular function had the highest accuracy compared to the other methods (Table 1). One of the most important factors to achieve high accuracy in this method is its ability to depict the non-bias linear estimation. Of course, other methods, especially the Universal Kriging with Quadratic function, due to the use of local procedures offers an acceptable accuracy
    Keywords: Evaluate the accuracy, Kordestan province, The estimated distribution of precipitation, Interpolation
  • حمید ابراهیمی، علی اکبر رسولی، داود مختاری
    شهر مرند از لحاظ وضعیت لرزه خیزی در پهنه های با خطر بسیار زیاد قرارگرفته است، ازاین رو مساله اسکان موقت و بهینه سازی اسکان جمعیت در هنگام بروز بحران زلزله از اهمیت بسیار بالایی برخوردار است. پژوهش حاضر با هدف شناسایی و مدلسازی مکانی مراکز پیشنهادی اسکان موقت به منظور مدیریت بحران زلزله در شهرستان مرند تدوین گردیده است. با مطالعه مبانی نظری تحقیق و استفاده از نظرات کارشناسان هشت معیار موثر در پهنه بندی مراکز اسکان موقت استخراج گردیده و در قالب دو مدل؛ فرآیند تحلیل سلسله مراتبی فازی (FAHP) و سیستم استنتاج فازی (FIS)، مراکز با شرایط مناسب به منظور اسکان موقت در مدیریت بحران زلزله مشخص گردیدند. با مقایسه نتایج به دست آمده از دو مدل بر اساس نظر کارشناسان و امکان سنجی استفاده بهینه و عملی از پهنه های پیشنهادی، از میان پهنه های با شرایط بسیار مناسب در سیستم استنتاج فازی، 232723 مترمربع و در مدل فرآیند تحلیل سلسله مراتبی 44995 مترمربع مورد تایید کارشناسان و دارای شرایط تعریف شده می باشند؛ که نشان از دقت و صحت بیش تر نتایج حاصل از سیستم استنتاج فازی نسبت به فرآیند تحلیل سلسله مراتبی می باشد. استفاده از نتایج حاصل از این تحقیق توسط مدیران و برنامه ریزان شهری نقش موثری در مدیریت بحران زلزله خواهد داشت.
    کلید واژگان: پهنه های اسکان موقت، شهرستان مرند، تحلیل سلسله مراتبی فازی، سیستم استنتاج فازی
    Hamid Ebrahimy, Ali Akbar Rasoli, Davod Mokhtari
    Marand city is located in very dangerous zone in terms of seismicity status, Therefore the problem of temporary settlement and optimization of the population settlements in the occurrence of earthquake is very important. This study has been implemented with the aim of identifying and spatial modeling of temporary settlement area in order to manage the earthquake crisis. Eight effective criteria in modeling temporary settlement has been extracted by studying research theoretical foundations and using the opinions of experts, then by using two models; Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) and Fuzzy Inference System (FIS), the area with proper conditions for temporary settlement in earthquake disaster management was determined. By comparing the results from the two models Based on expert’s opinions and Feasibility, optimization and practical of the Suggested zones among the zones with very good condition in Fuzzy Inference system, 232723 square meters And in the Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process Model 44995 square meters, are Confirmed by experts and have most proper condition. The results indicates more accuracy in results of fuzzy inference system In comparison with fuzzy analytic hierarchy process.
    Keywords: Temporary settlement area, Marand city, Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process, fuzzy inference system
  • محمدحسین رضایی مقدم*، محمدرضا نیکجو، داود مختاری، سید رضا حسین زاده، حسام ملکی
    وقوع سیلاب های شدید یکی از مهم ترین مخاطرات هیدرو-ژئومورفیک حوضه آبریز رودخانه سیروان است. رودخانه سیروان به عنوان یکی از شاخص ترینرودخانه هایواقع در غربایران است. طی نیم قرن اخیر خصوصا در بهاربه شدت سیلابی شده و بسیاری از کارشناسان محلی علت وقوع سیلاب های آن راتشدید ذوب برفها و بارش ها نسبت می دهند. برای بررسی بهتر موضوع داده های طولانی تر سیلاب مورد نیاز است که در این مقاله با استفاده از داده های ژئومورفولوژیکی و سیلابی به باز سازی سیلاب ها پرداخته شده است.برای نیل به اهداف این مقاله با استفاده تصاویر ماهواره اییسایت های احتمالی رسوبات آب راکد و شواهد ژئومورفولوژیک سیلاب شناسایی گردید. رودخانه به سه بازه تقسیم شد و با بازدیدهای میدانی دقیق سایت های رسوبات آب راکد به تحلیل های چینه شناسی بر روی رسوباتپرداخته شد. باعملیات نقشه برداری،نقشه 1:1000 مسیرمورد مطالعه تهیهگردیدو جمعا 48 مقطعدرسه بازه، ترسیم گردید ودبی سیلاب ها دردوره های مختلف باز سازیشد. از نرم افزار HEC-RAS،GIS جهتترسیمنقشه هاوتحلیل های هیدرولیکی بهره گرفته شد. نتایج نشان دادحداکثر دبی سیلابی برای دوره 2 ساله،66/103 و برای دوره 1000 ساله 78/4785 مترمکعب بر ثانیه برآوردگردید. در بازه اول پالنگان، تراز آب در دوره 2 ساله، 989.57 متر و برای دوره 1000 ساله1005.36مترودر بازه دوم دله مرز، برای دوره 2 ساله،868.42متر و برای دوره 1000 ساله 885.91متر،در بازه سوم رودبار،تراز آب در دوره 2 ساله، 790.17متر و برای دوره 1000 ساله830.42 متر به دست آمد.برآوردحداکثر دبی لحظه ایسیلاب های دیرین رودخانهنشان داد که وقوع سیلاب های بزرگ دور از انتظار نیست.نتایج نشان داد که با استفاده از شاخص دیرینه تراز PSI، می توان سیلاب های بزرگ (حداکثر دبی) را در کانال رودخانه با استفاده از مدل هیدرولیکیHEC-RASو نرم افزار الحاقیHEC-GEORAS برآورد و تشریح نمود.
    کلید واژگان: رودخانه سیروان، شاخص دیرینه ترازPSI، شواهدژئومورفیک، برآورد دبی، رسوبات آب راکد
    Mohammadhosein Rezaei Moghadam *, Mohammad Reza Nikjo, Davod Mokhtari, Saied Reza Hosinzadeh, Hesam Maleki
    The outbreak of the severe floods, one of the most important hazards hydro - Geomorphic is the Sirvan River catchment. Sirvan River as one of the most significant rivers is located in the west. During the last half century, especially in the spring severely flooded and many local experts melted snow and rain cause flooding intensifies over the day. To review the issue better flood data longer needed in this paper, using geomorphological data and flood reconstruction has been flooding. For the purposes of this paper, using satellite images stagnant water deposits and geomorphological evidences flood potential sites were identified. The river was divided into three periods, and the exact field visits to sites of stagnant water deposits on the sediment stratigraphy analysis was. With the mapping, map 1: 1000 area of study were produced and a total of 48 Section in three intervals, drawn and flood discharge was reconstructed in different periods. Software HEC-RAS, GIS was used to draw schematics and hydraulic analyzes. The maximum flood discharge for a period of 2 years, 103.66 and 4785.78 cubic meters per second for 1000-year period has been estimated as. Palangan in the first period, water level in the 2-year period, 1005.36 m 989.57 m and for the period of 1000 years. And the second period, Dalamarz border, for a period of 2 years, 868.42 m and for the period of 1000 years of 885.91 m. The third open Rodbar, water level in the 2-year period, 790.17 meters and 830.42 meters respectively for a period of 1000 years. Estimated maximum instantaneous flow old river floods showed that large floods is not unexpected. The results showed that using the Paleo stage indicator of PSI, the large floods (Discharge maximum) in the river channel using hydraulic model HEC-RAS and HEC-GEO-RAS estimated Software included and explained
    Keywords: Sirvan River, Paleostage indicator (PSI), geomorphology evidence, estimation of discharge, Slack water sediments
  • عقیل مددی، داود مختاری، حمدیه شیرزادی، ارسلان مهرورز
    مخروطه افکنه ها یکی از اشکال ژئومورفولوژی پایکوهی در مناطق خشک و نیمه خشک می باشند که با وجود موقعیت مناسب برای اجرای برنامه های عمران و توسعه سکونتگاهی، نسبت به فرایند های مخاطره آمیز ژئومورفیک ازجمله رخداد زمین لرزه حساس هستند. در پژوهش حاضر سعی بر این است که با بررسی مخروطه افکنه های واقع در دامنه های شمالغرب سهند، توان لرزه زایی گسل ها و پهنه بندی خطرات ناشی از آن را روی مخروطه افکنه ها به خوبی نشان داده شود. مخروطه افکنه های منطقه یکی از مراکز مهم تامین کننده نیازهای زراعی و کشاورزی سکونتگاه های اطراف به شمار می آیند. نتایج حاصل از بررسی مخروطه افکنه های منطقه مورد مطالعه حاکی از آن است که این مناطق به دلایلی چند ازجمله نزدیکی به گسل ها و دارا بودن سازند های سست و متخلخل (آبرفت های کواترنر)، در معرض خطرات ناشی از زلزله هستند. توان لرزه زایی گسل ها و پهنه بندی خطر آن ها بر روی مخروط افکنه ها با استفاده از روش تحلیل فضایی بربریان می باشد. ابتدا با استفاده از شاخص های ژئومورفیک (VF، B، SMF، FCI) میزان فعالیت تکتونیک در منطقه مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. سپس توان لرزه زایی گسل های موجود در سطح و مجاورت مخروط افکنه ها با روش های زارع، مهاجر- اشجعی، ملویل و اسمیت محاسبه گردید، درنهایت با استفاده از روش تحلیل فضایی بربریان میزان خطر گسل بر روی مخروط-افکنه ها و کاربری های مختلف انسانی موجود بر سطح آن ها و درصد تراکم کاربری ها در حریم گسل محاسبه گردید، و همچنین نتایج حاصل از پهنه بندی خطر گسل بر روی مخروط افکنه ها نیز بیانگر آن است که 58 /0مناطق مسکونی، 69/0 زمین زراعی، 61/0 چشمه ها و 39/0خطوط ارتباطی در حریم 1000متری گسل (محدوده با خطر بالا) قراردارند و قابلیت لرزه زایی گسل ها با طول گسل ارتباط مستقیم وجود دارد.
    کلید واژگان: تکتونیک، مخروط افکنه، توان لرزه زایی، دامنه های کوه سهند
    Aghil Madadi, Davod Mokhtari, Hamdieh Shirzadi, Arsalan Mehrvarz
    Introduction
    The Earth's crust is composed of various landforms. These forms are constantly changing. In this change, both of internal and external factors have a decisive role. The Internal factors led to the formation of the primary structure and external factors that cause erosion, deformation and destruction of these forms. Areas that have been affected by these activities confronted by various geomorphological forms, the alluvial fans were formed by different causes in this highlands. This study is an attempt to study the influence of tectonic on the formation and development of alluvial fans in the northwestern slopes of Sahand, calculate the seismic generating power of faults, and evaluate the seismic zoning of the risk arising from fault position on the alluvial fans and human activities. Sahand Mountain is located in the northwestern Iran with a geographical coordination of 37°07'to 38°02' North and 45°53' to 47°00' East. The total area of alluvial fans is 29.874297 square kilometers. This massive mountainous acreage covers an area of 8,000 square kilometers.
    Material and
    Methods
    In this study, 1: 25,000 maps of National Cartographic Center were used as the basic maps to identify tophographical units and location of alluvial fans. The geological map of 1: 100,000 were used to identify faults and geological formations of the region. Aerial photos of 1: 50,000, 1: 40000.1: 20000, from this area as well as satellite images were used in the completion of studies. After identifying alluvial fans and their initial review of the documents, the seismic data of the area was collected. Fault zones were detected by studying available geological maps, and their most important ones were drawn to the field of satellite imagery. Then, the seismic characteristics of the region were analyzed and a list of earthquakes were collected in radial expansion of 300 kilometers .The seismic potential of active faults from the initial parameters related to earthquake risk assessment were calculated using zarei, Ashjaei and Navrozi's formulas.
    Results And Discussion
    The impact of tectonic activity in the form of alluvial fans were analyzed by these indicators: the effects of tectonic on alluvial fans using the index Vf ; calculation of Vf on the alluvial fans of the area shows that only two alluvial fans (6 and 7) of the index are between 1-2 and other alluvial fans index are smaller than 1. The effects of tectonics on alluvial fans using the curvature index: the results of the study show that the alluvial fans of numbers 2, 3, 5, 9 have the smallest curvature coefficient and alluvial fans 6, 7 and 10 have gained the largest amount of curvature coefficient.
    Conclusion
    According to the results of this study that indicates tectonic activity status (fault) on the surface of the alluvial fans, high seismic potential of faults represent a high risk arising activity of faults in the surface of alluvial fans. Hence, any activity in the alluvial fans (build settlements, communication lines, construction projects, etc.) needs preparation and special considerations so that the losses of the operation can be reduced to a minimum. Values obtained indicate that the role of tectonic activity in the region has been higher on the alluvial fan because of the proximity of the large faults in the studied area. 2 faults in the region have the highest longitude. The risk of these faults are threatening Tabriz and Khosrowshahr cities with widespread devastation.
    Keywords: Tectonic, Alluvial fan, earthquakes, the slopes of Mountian Sahand
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