فهرست مطالب majid afshari rad

Digital banking (DB) is becoming a popular choice for many customers who value convenience and efficiency. However, it is also important to evaluate how well Internet banks perform in terms of customer satisfaction. This study aims to comprehensively identify and evaluate suitable indicators for DB implementation to promote its acceptance among users. Both financial institutions and customers perceive Internet banking services as more convenient compared to conventional branch-based services. We employed two techniques: The Importance-Performance Matrix and the Analytical Hierarchy Process. The Importance-Performance Matrix helped us rank the identified factors according to their importance and urgency for improving the bank’s performance. The analytical hierarchy process helped us compare and weigh the relative importance of various criteria and sub-criteria that affect the bank’s performance. According to our findings, the bank’s performance was influenced by five factors: ease of use, privacy, speed, human resources, and technology. We also discovered that ease of use and privacy were the most urgent factors that required immediate attention from the bank. Therefore, we advise that Tejarat Internet Bank's services focus on enhancing security and ease of use as their top priorities to improve their performance. This research introduces a novel perspective by switching the typical focus of online banking research from corporate entities to individual clients, this research offers an innovative point of view. Our investigation provides valuable insights useful for retail banking and banks that deal with corporate clients by extensively comparing and evaluating the unique requirements of these two consumer segments.

Due to the undeniable importance of energy in development countries, energy security is an important object in the economic and political policies of countries. In fact, the importance of the issue of energy security in today's world has caused a wide interaction between energy and politics, and many friendships, competitions and political developments in the world are influenced by energy and its surrounding issues. This paper examines the theoretical aspects of the problem of energy security which is becoming a topical geopolitical issue today. In other word, interpreting the concept of energy security and a geopolitical factor of energy security have become important. The results indicate that in order to achieve sustainable energy security, countries should pay special attention to the geopolitical dimension to evaluate energy security.

The main purpose of this research is to investigate the effects of compound risk shocks and its components (political, economic and financial risk) along with economic complexity on the development of Sukuk market in Iran. The data required to conduct this research is based on the variables of the proposed model related to the time period of 2010-2022 and seasonally, using the Central Asset Management Company of the Iranian Capital Market, the International Country Risk Guide Database (ICRG) and the MIT University website. has been The results of model estimation using the Wald test and Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model Approach (NARDL) indicate that the unexpected positive and negative shocks of the compound risk and its components have asymmetric effects on the development of the sukuk market. Among the components of composite risk, the negative shock of political risk has the most negative effect and the positive shock of financial and economic risk has the most positive effect on the development of the Iranian sukuk market in the long term. Also, the effect of economic complexity on the development of the sukuk market in the long term is positive in every equation proposed in this research

The effectiveness of the stock market agents with complete information and incomplete information on market trends, prices and demand for stocks and the effect of employees' behavior on the lack of information on employees with complete information (mass behavior survey) have been investigated in this research. For this purpose, by providing a researcher made questionnaire in relation to the stock exchange, using the statistical inference, the analysis of the results of the research has been done and the validity of the presented relationships has been investigated using analytical hieratical approach (AHP). Because in this article, the impact of information on traders' behavior. The 30 of traders have been selected as a sampling sample for Iran Koodro's and Pars Petro-chemical shares in the period of 2022. According to the current questionnaire and its results and practical observations, it can be concluded that transactions with sufficient information on prices are more effective than transactions with full information. Consequently, companies with incomplete information are more successful in the short run.

The aim of this research was to estimate the influencing factors on the size of the underground economy using fuzzy logic. The illegal nature of the underground economy also limits private investment and economic growth. For example, companies that operate in the underground economy are not able to use the institutions that support the market economy (judiciary and courts), which makes them less inclined to invest. Therefore, it can be said that one of the most important issues that should be considered in economic policies is the underground sector of the economy. The research method in this research is of a descriptive-survey type, and the type of research in the current research is causal and practical in terms of the purpose, because the expected results of the research can be used in examining the dimensions of the underground economy. It is used in university and economic resources. To estimate the index of the underground economy and examine its trend using fuzzy logic, it is necessary to perform these steps; Accurate determination of indicators, fuzzification, definition of basic rules, inference engine, determinism and sensitivity analysis. To estimate the index of the underground economy with fuzzy logic, they are divided into three sub-criteria including the financial sector, the monetary sector and the real sector. The results showed that the informal sector constitutes an important part of the economy and the labor market in developing countries. This sector plays a major role in production, creating employment and income by producing goods and services, transferring skills by newcomers to the sector, reducing unemployment and using individual capital.

This article explains the mechanism of the asymmetric consequences of government spending shock with the effect of government spending effectiveness indicators on the economic activities of the country using SVAR structural vector autoregression model for 2019-2019. Based on the estimation results of the SVAR model; A shock from oil revenues causes a 9% reduction in investment, 45% production and 1% employment, and a shock from the size of the government causes a 0.1% reduction in investment, 33% production and 6% employment respectively. will be Impulses coming from the government's current and construction expenses; It reduces production by 19% and employment by 90%. Generally; The impact of monetary and oil impulses in Iran's economy depends more on the inflationary state of Iran's economy; In such a way that with the increase of inflation, the effect of financial impulses (implementation of expansionary and contractionary policies) on production decreases and even at very high levels of inflation it can have a negative effect on real production. Considering the different infrastructures, models and economic conditions of Iran, a separate study of how the Iranian market is influenced by the uncertainty of the government's financial policies, the government's foreign exchange policies and investment costs can provide a correct view of the country's macro decisions. How production changes in the Iranian market as a result of these fluctuations.

The main objective of this article is to investigate the impact of various financial, economic, and political risks and economic complexity on the development of the Sukuk market in the Iranian economy. The data required to conduct this research based on the variables of the proposed model were used from the Capital Market Central Asset Management Company, the International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) database, and the MIT University website. The data relating to 2010-2022 is seasonal, and REVIEWS 13 software was used. The model estimation results using the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model Approach (NARDL) show that the negative shock of political risk reduces the development of the Sukuk market in the short and long term. The negative shock of financial risk in the long term has a negative impact on the development of the Sukuk market. The negative shock of economic complexity reduces the development of the Sukuk market in the short term. The positive shocks of political risk, financial risk, economic risk, and economic complexity in the short and long term led to the development of the Sukuk market. Among the three types of risk, political risk and financial risk have the most impact on sukuk market development. The error correction coefficient in this estimate is negative and statistically significant, which shows that 0.42% of the short-term imbalance is adjusted to reach the long-term balance every year.

The main objective of this article is to investigate the effect of the tax burden and corruption perceptions index, as well as the interactive effect of these two variables on the total factors of productivity, using the panel data of 18 countries in the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) during 2002 - 2020 and Pooled Mean Group (PMG) method. The results of the study showed that increasing the tax burden without the corruption perceptions index reduces the productivity of the production factors in both the short and long term, While the increase of the corruption perceptions index  and the joint effects of the corruption perception index and the tax burden have a positive and significant effect on the productivity of all production factors. The positive interaction effect of the tax burden and the corruption perceptions index on the productivity of the total production factors indicates that the increase in the corruption perception index reduces the negative effect of the tax burden on the productivity of the total production factors. An increase of one unit of the tax burden has had a negative and significant impact of 0.027 and 0.019 units on the productivity of all production factors in the short and long term, respectively, While the increase of the corruption perception index and the interactive effects of the corruption perceptions index and the tax burden are 0.022, 0.041 a and in the long term, 0.048 and 0.069 units have had a positive and significant effect on it.

The main aim of this article is to estimate the volume liquidity shocks and its impact along with other effective variables on the exchange rate system’s survival in the 9 countries with an exchange rate anchor monetary system and the 20 countries with an inflation targeting monetary system during the period of 1999-2020. In order to achieve this objective, volume liquidity shocks were first estimated using the residual method, and then low and high inflationary environments were estimated using the Markov rotation method in Ox-Metrix version 7 software. Finally, the survival of foreign exchange systems has been estimated using the quasi-parametric method with the Weibull distribution in Stata software version 17. The main results of the estimation showed that positive and negative shocks had negative, positive and significant effects on the durability or survival of exchange rate systems in both groups of countries, respectively. Moreover, the variables of gross domestic fixed capital formation, the degree of openness and marginal cost have, respectively had positive, positive and negative effects on the survival of currency systems in the group of countries under investigation. The inflationary environment had a negative and significant impact on the survival and permanence of the exchange rate systems in both groups of countries, but the effect of nominal effective exchange rate volatility on the survival of the exchange rate anchor system was not significant due to the adopted exchange rate arrangements of a stabilized currency system with a 2% and limited fluctuation range, which reduces the possibility of aggravating instability.

The impacts of monetary arrangements on the general level of prices in the international finance literature have been theoretically considered by economists and have been an important part of empirical studies in recent years. Therefore, the main purpose of this article is to investigate the effect of the survival of monetary systems on the consumer price index as an indirect degree of exchange rate pass-through in 19 MENA countries during the period of 1985-2020. For this purpose, at first, the duration of monetary arrangement is estimated using the survival models approach such as Cox semi-parametric and other non-parametric models with different distributions, and in the next step, by Markov switching approach, low and high inflationary environments are extracted in two regimes, one regime (low inflationary environment with inflation less than mean of inflation) and another regime (high inflationary environment with inflation greater than the mean of inflation). It is mentioned that the inflationary environment with two regimes has been preferred to the inflationary environment with three regimes according to the statistical criterion such as AIC. Finally, prior to the empirical model estimation, the utilization of first generation against second-generation unit root tests have tested by Friedman, Frees and Pesaran tests and at the final step, the empirical model of the research has been estimated by pooled mean group estimator (PMG) method as one of the main co-integrating techniques while the variables order of integration are zero and one. At first step, the survival and non-survival of monetary arrangements were estimated by using of parametric methods and different distributions, and then by Markov Switching model of inflationary environments in both low and high conditions for this group of countries has been estimated and the years in which the countries were in two regimes were identified. The results of estimating the empirical model showed that the null hypothesis that the risk is proportionate and the use of the Cox method in comparisons with other parametric methods was rejected at a significant level of 5%, and therefore alternative parametric methods such as Weibull distribution, normal logarithm, etc. are proper for estimating the survival of monetary arrangements. Next, in order to choose the appropriate distribution in parametric patterns among the Weibull distributions; Exponential, Gamma, Gompertz, Generalized Gamma and Logarithm-Normal Akaike information criterion was used due to a large number of observations (680 observations) and the value of Akaike test statistic for the Weibull distribution is -2403.14 and less than other distributions values. In addition,the results of monetary arrangement survival estimation by Weibull distribution showed that the variables of degree of openness and gross capital formation have a negative and significant effect on the risk of exiting the monetary system, and with an increase of one unit of the degree of openness of the economy and formation of gross domestic fixed capital, respectively, 0.007 and 0.04 units of the durability period or the survival of monetary systems increases or the risk of exiting monetary systems decreases. Also, with an increase of one unit in the inflation rate, the survival of monetary systems in this group of countries decreases by 0.29 units or the risk of exiting monetary arrangements increases. Moreover, the probability of survival or the duration of monetary arrangements in the MENA region has increased from 0.9722 in 1985 to 0.014 in 2020 and the probability of its non-survival has increased from 0.0278 to about 0.986 in 2020. The results for the estimation of an inflationary environment indicated that there is no linear relationship in the inflation rate was rejected at the significant levels of 5 and 10%, and therefore, we used the Markov Switching nonlinear method to extract the inflationary environments. It is worth mentioning that in this research, two regimes of low and high inflation environments have been used. According to the Akaike information criterion, the value of the test statistic was 4.29, which is lower than the three-state regime (4.61). Also, the average inflation rate in the studied countries is equal to 4.02. The overall results of this study show that with the increase in the value of average foreign currencies compared to domestic currencies, the cost of imports in terms of domestic currency increased in this group of countries, resulting in consumer goods prices as indirect effects. Exchange rate fluctuations also increase in the long run. On the other hand, the lag of error coefficient in the error correction model is -0.67, which indicates a relatively high short-term adjustment speed towards the long-run equilibrium value. Also, the marginal cost of production and the survival of monetary system arrangements in the short run have a significant effect on the growth rate of the consumer price index in the short run. Moreover, the results of model estimation in long-run indicated that two regimes of inflation environment for the countries of the Middle East and North Africa are considered as optimal conditions and the variable of inflation rate has a negative impact and gross fixed capital formation and the degree of openness of the economy has a negative impact and have had a significant effect on the survival of monetary systems in duration models. In addition, being in a low and high inflationary environment leads to a decrease in the rate of exchange rate pass-through or the transition effects of changes in the effective nominal exchange rate on the consumer price index of goods and services in this group of countries and the persistence of monetary systems intensifies this effect. Also, GGDP has a negative effect on the consumer price index of goods and services in the long run. With respect to the negative and significant impact of the persistence of monetary arrangements on the consumer price index in the Middle East and North Africa, it is suggested that monetary authorities and the central bank in this group of countries accurately predict inflation and decline. Take its deviations and thus help reduce the transition effects of exchange rate changes on the CPI. In addition, reducing marginal costs and expanding production capacity to reduce the transitional effects of exchange rate changes on the CPI are other policy implications derived from the results of this research.

The main objective of this paper is to conceptualize marketing strategies and models in cultural products and services. This research has been carried out within the framework of a Qualitative/Quantitative approach using the Grounded Theory and SEM Methods. Statistical population was all management, strategies, marketing experts and University professors who has executive or academic experience about cultural marketing. In qualitative research, the data were collected through open audiovisual recording interviews (with 14 expert) and their content was transcribed. The interview data were analyzed in three stages, including open, axial and selective coding steps, and categorized as concepts and themes. The findings of study included five categories of causal conditions, intervening conditions, contextual conditions, strategies and consequences that have been presented in the form of Strauss and Corbin’s coded pattern. Then designed questionnaire and distribution between 212 experts in Tehran Municipality and analysis by Amos software were done. All assumptions was confirmed and highlight role of Pricing, Branding, Advertising, Customer Database and culture-building as strategies for having sustainable development, expanding Iranian-Islamic culture and increase market share as a consequence designing the marketing pattern for cultural products and services.

Food and drink industry has a main share in capital market and a considerable role in stock market transactions through the collection of community micro-savings. Hence, the cruicial aim of this paper is to investigate the effects of nominal exchange rate volatility and entry of real shareholders on the return on assets (ROA) in the 44 food and drink companies of Tehran stock exchange as a export oriented companies during the period of 2011-2019. For achieving this, by using of Panel GARCH method, the exchange rate volatility has been estimated and then, the impacts of this variabble with other explanatory variabbles such as entry of real shareholders, profit margin, capital and interest rate to the operational profit, have been examined on return on assets in these companies. The empirical results of model estimation by GMM estimator revealed that the exchange rate volatility has negative and entry of real shareholders has positive and significant effect on the return on assets. Moreover, the auxiliary variables like profit margin, capital and interest rate have positive, positive and negative effects on the return on assets. By results of this study, we can suggest that the financial policy makers with decreasing of exchange rate volatility through control of domestic prices and capital market stabilization policies, motivate real shareholders to enter the capital market and increase the production and profitability of food and drink companies.

In the wake of recent financial crisis, large banks have been considered as important factors in financial markets in the world, since these banks' failure could affect the whole economy by extending systemic risk. With regard to this issue, when large banks face insolvency or bankruptcy, larger part of economy would be affected, and with the interconnectedness between banks and financial institutions, the effects of large banks' bankruptcy will have greater impact on the real economy. After financial crisis, many studies have concentrated on the failure of TBTF banks, and the role of these banks in the incident of financial crisis. Number of specialists emphasize on bank size and Basel Committee on Banking Supervision regulated by the classification of banks and their systemically important banks. The study of risk among systemically important banks is important to Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. Many studies confirm that larger banks tend to have less capital, less stability and sustainability of resources, and higher risk-taking activities, therefore, larger banks have become fragile in financial markets. Moreover, the other explanatory variables such as inflation and GDP growth have negative and positive effects on deposits volume in Iran respectively.

The relationship between institutions and economic growth is one of the main issues in economic development debates and has been considered empirically in recent years. Hence, the main purpose of this paper is to investigate the effects of institutions and recourses management improvement on economic growth in D8 countries during the period of 1996-2019. 

For achieving this objective, the econometric model is estimated by applying PSTR method in panel data. 

The results of threshold estimation show that the threshold of good governance index is -0.67 and its effect on economic growth of Islamic developing countries before and after this value will be different. Since the value of good governance index in 8 developing Islamic countries is between -1.28 and -0.19, so it is expected that the estimated threshold is in the range between low and high. In addition, the value of the estimated threshold is in the neighborhood of its average value, -0.71. Moreover, the speed of transmission to the nonlinear section for these countries is 1.46. Furthermore, the good governance index in both regimes has a positive effect on economic growth, which, of course, increases its intensity by exceeding the threshold or entering the second regime or above average. It is expected that at high levels of governance (low levels of corruption and redundant regulations and political constraints and high levels of political stability and the rule of law and the effectiveness of government) where the quality of institutions is also high, all good governance components attract domestic and foreign investment, Accelerate economic growth rate.The impact of human capital in both regimes is positive. In this regard, it can be argued that when governance and the quality of institutions are low, the necessary investments in human resources are not take place in this group of countries. The coefficients of abundance of natural resources are positive in both regimes, and with the transition to high levels of good governance (the second regime), the intensity of its positive influence increases. In other words, with the improvement of the good governance index and its components, the effect of natural resource management on production and economic growth has also improved, while in the low state of the good governance index, the abundance of natural resources has had a small effect on economic growth. Therefore, the effect of improving natural resources at a high level of good governance on the economic growth of Islamic countries is significant. The FDI has positive and significant impact on the GDP growth rate in every linear and non-linear parts.So, in every regimes (linear and non-linear) good governance and natural resource abundance variables have positive and significant impacts on the economic growth and other explanatory variables such as gross capital formation, FDI and human capital have positive effects on GDP growth in every linear and nonlinear parts. 

in the high level of governance accompanied with low corruption, redundant rules, political constraints, all indices of good governance attract domestic and foreign investment and accelerate economic growth.

The development of the financial system in all economies is one of the challenging issues that has been raised by economists in different decades. According to the World Economic Forum (2012), financial development refers to the factors, policies, and institutions that lead to efficient financial intermediaries and markets and deep and wide access to capital and financial services. Also, according to the latest report of the forum, creating an efficient, resilient and fair international financial system can support customers and activate savings and investment, which in turn can lead to economic growth and the creation of jobs and businesses in the economy. In fact, the financial system is the cornerstone of economic activities, but during the last decade, important steps have been taken to develop it (World Economic Forum Report, 2019, p. 22).According to the results of previous studies, a higher growth rate can be expected from any country that has a more efficient financial system (Dadgar and Nazari, 2009, p. 2). However, despite much evidence to support the positive impact of financial development on economic growth, there is still no consensus on the relationship between the two. In general, there are two main schools of thought on this subject. Proponents of the first school of thought argue that financial development is essential for economic growth (Goldsmith, 1969; Levin, 1997; and McKinnon, 1973). In contrast, proponents of the second school of thought, who are predominantly neoclassical theorists, argue that the financial sector is not the main driver of growth (Robinson, 1952; Wijnberg, 1983; Buffie, 1984; Lucas, 1988 and Shan, 2005). Among some researchers such as Patrick (1966), the existence of a two-way causal relationship and others such as Singh (1997), Andersen and Tarp (2003), Ayadi et al. (2015) and Ductor and Grechyna (2015), have found an inverse relationship between financial sector development and economic growth.

Indeed, although most empirical studies in this area confirm the positive impact of financial development on economic growth and show a one-way relationship between financial sector development and the real sector of the economy, but by reviewing the existing literature, it can be inferred that the relationship between these two macroeconomic variables is not definite. So, assuming a one-way causal relationship from financial development to economic growth can provide misleading results from the relationship between these two variables. In addition, according to the existing literature, different results on the causal relationship between these two key variables are affected by the pillars of financial development, and among the pillars of financial development, financial stability is one of the most key conditions for maintaining the relationship between financial development and economic growth.Financial stability refers to situations in which financial crises or external shocks do not generally disrupt the core functions of the financial system. This requires a disciplined government with a stable budget structure that can stabilize the macroeconomy and ultimately provide the conditions for financial stability in the economy. It should be noted that the issue of the impact of budgetary stability indicators as a measure of financial stability on the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth is one of the issues that have not been addressed in previous studies. Actually, despite the fact that the relationship between financial development and economic growth has been considered in numerous studies, but the study of how the relationship between these two macroeconomic variables is affected by macroeconomic stability budget indicators has not been considered so far.

Therefore, the purpose of this article is to study the effect of budgetary stability indicators in the expenditure sector on the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth. For this purpose, first considering financial development as a multidimensional index and considering the bank-based financial system in Iran, seven indicators of financial development in the banking sector have been used and then the multidimensional index of financial development using principal component analysis technique (PCA) has been calculated. Then, the causal relationship between the multidimensional index of financial development and economic growth has been analyzed using the bi-variate causality technique based on the vector error correction model (VECM) during the period 1357-1397. Finally, the effect of macroeconomic stability budget indicators on the causal relationship between these two variables has been studied using the tri-variate causality test based on the above model.

The results of our estimation show a one-way causal relationship from financial development to economic growth. The findings also indicate that the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth is affected by budgetary stability indices. Although the ratio of government debt to central bank, government debt to banks and non-bank financial institutions ratio and current expenditure ratio to GDP, have been able to maintain this direct causal relationship, but in other cases the negative significant impact of these indicators on the causal relationship between these two variables has been confirmed. In other words, the main results of this study show that the performance of government in the expenditure sector (except for three of these indicators) has led to the passivity of the financial sector to the real sector of the economy. Among the important reasons for such results are the short time horizon of governments’ plans, lack of serious efforts to reduce dependence on oil revenues due to the existence of high rents for some stakeholders and the lack of use of new financing methods for the budget deficit.

The study of the asymmetric effects of real wages on the employment rate as one of the performance variables of the industrial sector in the theoretical and experimental literature of industrial economics in recent years has been considered by economists in this scope. Therefore, in this paper, by using of nonlinear NARDL approach, the asymmetric effects of real wages on the employment rate of the industrial sector in Iran during the period 1986-2019 have been examined. The empirical results of model estimation indicate that the effect of real wages is asymmetric on the employment of Iran's industrial sector in the short and long term. On the other hand, increasing the real wage of the industrial sector in the long run has a negative impact and decreasing it has a positive and significant effect on the employment rate of this sector and the error correction coefficient also indicates the speed, above the adjustment of short-term error towards equilibrium and long-term value. The value added variable of the industrial sector and economic sanctions also have a positive, negative and significant effect on the employment of the industrial sector in the long run, respectively. Based on the findings of this study, it is suggested that economic policy makers and the industrial sector increase employment through increasing production capacity. Furthermore, controlling the inflation rate can reduce the employment costs of employers and producers in the industrial sector and help increase labor demand and employment.

The relationship between monetary policy shocks and total deposits of banks are one of the main important issues in monetary economics and banking literatures and has been considered empirically in recent years. Hence, the main aim of this paper is to evaluate the relationship among these variables by applying dynamic panel data approach for 23 private and governmental banks during the 2008-2019. 

For achieving this purpose, at first the inflationary environments have been extracted by Markov- Switching and then, by utilizing dynamic panel data and GMM estimator the short-run relationship between variables have been tested. 

The empirical findings of this paper indicated that the first order lag of bank deposits has a positive and significant effect on the volume of deposits in current year and its amount is equal to 0.17. Also, the variable of the interaction of liquidity growth rate with severe inflation environments and banks 'legal reserve ratio has a negative and significant effect on private banks' deposit volume and the variables of long-term deposit interest rate, real GDP growth rate and liquidity quality have a positive and significant effect on deposit volume. State-owned banks are positive and meaningful, consistent with theoretical expectations. The deposit profit rate has positive and other monetary policy variables such as liquidity growth rate and rule of deposits ratio and cross effect of liquidity money growth with inflationary environment have negative impact on the total deposits of Banks. Regarding the negative and significant effect of the interaction of liquidity growth rate with high inflation environments, it can be argued that with increasing liquidity and increasing demand, the general level of prices increases and consequently inflation rate increases and the economy enters a severe inflation environment, so expect as inflation intensifies, demand for deposits in banks will decrease and the incentive to invest in alternative environments such as the foreign exchange market, gold and other assets will increase. In addition, the value of Sargan test statistics indicates that the null hypothesis is not rejected and the instrumental variables defined in the model are valid. Because the value of this test statistic shows that the instrument variables defined are not correlated with the error terms. It is worth noting that in this estimate, due to the shorter period of time under study, the second-order interval of the volume of deposits of private and state-owned banks is considered as an instrument variable. According to the results of Arellano & Bond, it can be inferenced that the order of self-correlation between the disorder sentences was of the first order. Therefore, this method is a best method to eliminate the fixed effects of the model. 

Considering the negative and significant effect of the interaction of liquidity growth rate with inflationary environments on the deposit volume of the banking sector, it is suggested that economic policymakers apply contractionary monetary policies to control and decrease the volume of liquidity and control the general level of prices and inflation. Provide calm and gentle inflationary environments as well as increase the investment of individuals and legal entities with banks and help increase their deposits.

The study of the effect of real exchange rate and value- added on employment as one of the functional variables of the industrial sector in the theoretical and experimental literature of industrial economics in recent years has been considered by economists in this field.

In the present study, using the NARDL nonlinear model, the asymmetric effects of the real exchange rate and value added of the industrial sector on the employment rate of the industrial sector in Iran during the period of 1986-2019 have been evaluated.

The results of empirical findings indicate that the comination of integrated level between dependent variable and explanatory variables are I(0) and I(1). Moreover, the real exchange rate has been stationary with considering of structural break at level. The short-run dynamic model showe that there is a long-run relationship between variables. Estimated long-run relationship demonstrate that the asymmetry of real exchange rate and value-added on employment had been confirmed in Iran's industrial sector in short and long term. This result obtained by applying Wald test with Chi-square distribution. Also, in the long run, increasing the real exchange rate has a positive effect and decreasing the real exchange rate has a negative and significant effect on employment in the industrial sector. On the other hand, increasing the value added of the industrial sector in the long run has a positive effect and reducing it has a negative effect on the employment rate of this sector.The economic sanctions has also a negative and significant effect on the industrial sector employment in the long run. CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests are implemented for evaluation of coefficient consisteny in log-run. This tests revealed that the estimated coefficients are consistent. The results of error correction model explain that the increase and decrease of the real exchange rate and value- added of the industrial sector in the short term also have expected signs and the coefficient of error term in before period is -0.76, which indicates the high convergence rate of the short-term model to equilibrium status. In other words, in the period of 1.3 period or year, the short-term error is corrected and the adjustment speed is relatively high. The situation of asymmetry effevts for real exchange rate and industry value-added shows that the increase and decrease of the real exchange rate and the value- added of the industrial sector over the period of 15 years tend to their equilibrium or long-term value, ie values of -0.08 and -0.14. For value- added, they tend to increase and decrease to 0.27 and -0.11 in the long run.

Based on the findings of this study, it is suggested that economic policy makers control the general level of prices and inflation to increase the real exchange rate and production through employment capacity to improve employment in this sector. Promoting value added in the industrial sector by applying appropriate policies such as reducing intermediary costs and increasing sales value in order to enhancement the level of employment is another policy proposal of this research.

Activists in finance use various instruments to make optimal decision. One of the most important instruments is   stocks expected return that is predicted by some models. In this study two methods named reward beta approach and downside arbitrage pricing theory are investigated and compared. To test reward beta model sample period is divided into two sub-periods. First beta coefficients are estimated in the first period and then are used as explanatory variables to test the model in the second period. In investigating downside arbitrage pricing theory, only downside deviations of mean in calculating macroeconomic variables and stock returns are considered. To test this model, in order to predict beta coefficients and risk premiums of variables simultaneously, iterated nonlinear seemingly unrelated regression are used. The results indicate that during the period 1380-1397 in the case of stocks with lower market value, downside arbitrage pricing theory has better performance in predicting returns in Tehran Stock Exchange compared with reward beta approach.

The main purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of monetary system survival (as an indicator for monetary policy stability) and inflationary environment on exchange rate pass-through (as measure of transitional effects of exchange rate fluctuations on the import price index) in 9 developing countries during 1999-2019. To this purpose, the inflationary environment index is estimated by Markov-switching model and its effect on monetary policy stability is estimated by Survival Model Approach. Then, the risk of monetary system failure is estimated by WEIBULL method and in the following, the effect of this variable with other explanatory variables is estimated by ARDL method on exchange rate pass-through. The results show the negative effect of the inflationary environment on the monetary system survival. Also, the monetary system survival, the inflationary environment, the nominal effective exchange rate and its instability will increase the exchange rate pass-through.

The causal relationship between financial development and economic growth is one of the most challenging topics in the macroeconomic literature. In fact, the relationship between these two key variables depends on the pillars of financial development that can have a significant impact on this relationship. Meanwhile, budget indicators as a representative of macroeconomic stability have a significant impact on the relationship between financial development and economic growth. Therefore, in this paper, the effect of budgetary indicators in the revenue sector on the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth during the period 1978-1397 has been studied. For this purpose, first, the multidimensional index of financial development has been calculated based on the banking indicators approved by the World Bank. Then, based on the bivariate causality test based on the vector error correction model (VECM), the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth has been investigated. Then, the effect of budgetary indicators on the causal relationship between this variable based on the three-variable causality test based on the above model has been done. Based on the results of this study, the main income indicators have a significant effect on the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth. However, major budgetary indicators have prevented macroeconomic stability. This has led to the elimination of the causal relationship between financial sector development and economic growth and the country's economy cannot benefits from developing the financial system in the banking sector to achieve higher economic growth.

Hedging is one of the most important topics in investment field, which could be noticed from different points of view. We evaluate the role of gold relative to different indices in Tehran Security Exchange (TSE) as a representative of Iran Capital Market .In this topic gold charecterristics of “save haven” and “hedge” versus TSE are studided. Daily Price Returns of 21 TSE stock indices and daily price returns of world gold (ons) are used as research data. Utilizing these data and GARCH model, two charecteristics of “safe haven” and “hedge” related to long position and short position of world gold for each stock indice is determined. This way it provide us with deciding on proper position in world gold, whether long or short position, to hedge downfall of a certain stock. In accordance with outcomes, we find long position in gold is not a strong hedge for non of the studied groups except for transportation indice. In addition, short position in gold is a weak hedge for two groups of non-metalic minerals and metals. Regarding safe haven, long position of gold played as a strong safe haven role for all groups in 10% quantile but not in non of 5% & 1% quantiles. Long position of gold is a safe haven for most of indices. However, there are little groups for which short position of gold is a safe haven.

Iran’s social insurance system including 18 pension funds, which are part of the social protection system, covers about 68% of the working population and about 46% of the elderly population. Today, since the country’s pension funds are one of the main players in the social and economic spheres of the country. Failure to adopt appropriate strategies for managing this crisis will pose very serious risks to the sustainability of the country’s economic, social, and political dimensions. However, what has become a major concern for policy makers in the field of social security is the worrying situation of pension funds, which has reached the level of concern and warning with the sustainability and has even crossed this border in some of these funds. With the aim of sustainability, this study examines the financial status of the Social Security Organization.

This study uses cohort methodology and demographic and economic data were used to estimate the financial capacity of the Social Security Organization.

The most important economic challenge of the Social Security Organization is known as the generous pension formula including low retirement age as well as non-payment of government share of contribution.

The reform proposals should be in the form of a pension formula adjustment through increasing the period of insurance and age of retirement as well as planning for the unpaid government share of contribution to be paid regularly.

In the wake of recent financial crisis, large banks have been considered as important factors in financial markets in the world, since these bankschr (chr (chr (chr('39')39chr('39'))39chr(chr('39') 39chr ('39')))39chr(chr(chr('39')3 9chr('39')) 39chr (chr ('39') 39chr ('39')))) failure could affect the whole economy by extending systemic risk. With regard to this issue, when large banks face insolvency or bankruptcy, larger part of economy would be affected, and with the interconnectedness between banks and financial institutions, the effects of large bankschr(chr(chr(chr ('39')39chr('39'))39chr(chr('39')39chr('39'))) 39chr (chr(chr ('39') 39chr ('39'))39chr(chr('39') 39chr ('39')))) bankruptcy will have greater impact on the real economy. After financial crisis, many studies have concentrated on the failure of TBTF banks, and the role of these banks in the incident of financial crisis. Number of specialists emphasize on bank size and Basel Committee on Banking Supervision regulated by the classification of banks and their systemically important banks. In this paper, the bankruptcy immunity Period has been estimated for 25 government and private banks of iran by applying duration model approach. The empirical findings showed that the return on equity and banks capital have positive and significant effects on the bankruptcy immunity Period and the period of  bankruptcy immunity is 2.68.