ghasem layani

The concept of Natural capital has emerged as a crucial element in the economic and social surveys of modern societies. It plays a pivotal role in promoting sustainable rural livelihoods and development across all dimensions. The recognition of natural capital as a valuable asset has gained significant attention in recent years, as it provides a framework for understanding the economic value of natural resources and the services they provide. This concept has become increasingly relevant in the context of sustainable development, as it highlights the importance of preserving and managing natural resources for the benefit of present and future generations. Therefore, policymakers and stakeholders must recognize the significance of natural capital and incorporate it into their decision-making processes to ensure sustainable development. Livelihood capital, which comprises environmental, social, physical, human, and financial capital, is a fundamental component of people's livelihoods, particularly those who are impoverished. These capitals are the cornerstone of sustainable livelihoods and are essential factors for local poor communities. Understanding the livelihood status of households and their access to livelihood funds is crucial for advancing development goals in rural areas, particularly in developing countries. It is one of the most significant and influential platforms for achieving this objective. Upon reviewing previous literature, it is evident that the application of a system approach in analyzing sustainable rural livelihoods has not received adequate attention. Given that the discussion of sustainable rural livelihoods involves different capitals, each comprising interrelated variables, neglecting the interrelationships between these variables may not be effective in addressing the issues at hand. Furthermore, disregarding feedback loops and dynamic complexity in a system can lead to political resistance. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the role of natural capital in sustainable rural development using a systemic approach.

System dynamics is a method that has been used to study and investigate the relationships between separate systems that are at the same time closely connected and enjoy dynamics in behavior. Dynamic simulation is useful for modeling the behavior of a system and observing its reaction to various changes over time. One of the most important features of the dynamic system is considering an endogenous structure of the studied system to show the reaction of different elements of the system on each other and the feedback effects between them. This approach enables us to gain a deeper understanding of the system's behavior and identify the factors that influence it. This study aims to conduct an analysis and provide an explanation of the natural capital of sustainable rural livelihoods using a systems thinking approach. The first step involved identifying the key variables of the system through a questionnaire and expert interviews in the study area. Subsequently, a new questionnaire was designed, and 120 residents in Qarabagh city, Ghazni province in Afghanistan were interviewed using Cochran's formula and targeted sampling via the snowball technique. The assessment of the region's situation was conducted in terms of key environmental asset variables.

The study suggests that the availability of water and forest per capita is likely to decrease due to factors such as population growth, deforestation for agriculture, fuel and charcoal extraction, livestock grazing, and fire. Mismanagement of natural areas has led to their destruction and reduction. Efforts to stop and reduce this process have been insufficient and unscientific. Deforestation has irreversible consequences and will significantly impact the natural ecosystem and sustainable rural livelihoods in the region. Afghanistan is facing severe water problems due to frequent droughts and excessive extraction of surface and underground water. The country's water situation has reached a critical level, and it is essential to invest in different parts of the water area to protect the surface and underground water sources. The reduction of desired variables is related to the increase in population and the need for more water and food resources. The development of the agricultural sub-sector can lead to over-harvesting of water resources and destruction of the forest. Therefore, natural resource management policies should be given more attention to ensure sustainable rural livelihoods. Water demand management is a practical and quick step in controlling water resources. Demand-oriented management policies, such as setting a reasonable tariff for water and improving irrigation technology, should be put on the agenda. To preserve and protect forest resources, caretakers should be made aware of the issue and executive bodies should stay more coordinated. Other solutions include developing fodder cultivation for livestock in low-yielding rainfed areas, expanding research, organizing environmental organizations, implementing successful forest management plans, attracting private sector investment, continuing the implementation of forestry projects, and planting productive forest trees in the empty parts of the forest by the residents. Identifying the state of environmental (natural) capital helps planners design rural development strategies and sustainable livelihoods with the capacities of the region.

Natural capital is an essential predictive component that provides the basis for rural development. Therefore, effective measures should be taken to strengthen environmental capital, and attention should be paid to it in formal and informal curricula. It seems that the current policies in the study area in the field of environmental asset management are not in line with achieving the development of sustainable rural livelihood. The government should invest in the development of irrigation technology to support the plans that seek to save available water while helping the development of the agricultural.

Considering the importance of rural eco-tourism in the economic and social development of rural areas, the present study seeks to identify and stratify the priority areas of rural ecotourism in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province.

Design/methodology/approach:

 To determine the importance and weighting of the identified indicators, the fuzzy Shannon entropy method was used. The fuzzy Aras method was also used to determine the priority of the regions (ten cities of the province). Finally, with the benefit of the kriging interpolation method in ARC GIS software, the identifies indicators were interpreted.

Based on the results, the suitability index of the restored architecture in the physical sector with a weight of 0.0945, the index of minimal damage to the environment and optimal use of resources centered on the concepts of sustainable development in the environmental sector with a weight of 0.0943, and the suitability index of the restored architecture in the infrastructure sector with a weight of 0.926 were the most effective indicators in identifying the rural ecotourism area.

Based on the findings of the research, the villages of Farsan with a definite score of 0.116, Borujen with a definite score of 0.115, and Shahrekord with a definite score of 0.113 were identified as areas with higher priority in rural ecology, while Khanumriza and Ben villages had lower scores than other regions of the province.

Originality/value:

 The variety of techniques used in the research can be considered as the innovation of this study.

 Despite the positive effects of the liberalization of economic activity around the world, the Iranian government still has a major share in the country's economy. However, almost all economists agree on the low efficiency of government economic activities. Restricting government involvement in these activities is a move that has been proposed and pursued by the World Bank and other global economic organizations, especially in recent decades. One of the policies recently proposed to reduce government interference in the Iranian economy is the elimination of 42,000 Rials in the country. But reducing government interference in agricultural activities can have many positive and negative effects. One of these effects could be rising food prices. In recent years, the frequency of large food price increases has accelerated around the world. Due to the dramatic changes in food prices, there have been numerous studies postulated that the exchange rate and crude oil price instability are the main determinant of the food price crises in different countries. The exchange rate is at the center of the policy debate in both developed and developing economies. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate the asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on food price fluctuations in Iran. For this reason, the NARDL approach has been used.

 Due to the possibilities of asymmetric impact exits between the underlying variables (exchange rate and food price), the asymmetric Non-linear Unrestricted ARDL proposed by Shin et al. (2014) is widely used by the researchers, such as Ibrahim (2015) and Abdlaziz et al. (2016). The main purpose of this test was to test for the presence asymmetric effects in both long- and short-run relationships between economic time-series. Shin et al. (2014) applied the positive and negative partial sum decompositions to test the asymmetric effects. This asymmetric Unrestricted ARDL cointegration approach which allows the joint analysis of non-stationarity and non-linearity issues in the context of an unrestricted error correction model (ECM). In this study, in order to investigate the asymmetric effects of currency shock on food prices, the model introduced in the study of Wong and Shamsdin (2017) was used:

The findings of the study indicate several important relationships between key variables (oil price, per capita GDP, exchange rate, and trade liberalization) and food prices in Iran. Firstly, the study reveals that these variables exhibit long-run cointegration with food prices, suggesting a significant relationship between them. Secondly, the Unrestricted NARDL model demonstrates that exchange rates have a significant long-run asymmetric impact on food price changes in Iran. This implies that changes in the exchange rate can have a varying effect on food prices, depending on whether the exchange rate is appreciating or depreciating. Thirdly, the study finds that while long-run and short-run changes in oil prices do not have a significant impact on food prices in Iran, the long-run growth of per capita GDP and trade liberalization do have a significant impact on food price fluctuations. Specifically, the coefficients of the exchange rate variables indicate that a 1 percent increase in the exchange rate results in a 0.32 percent increase in the consumer food price index and a 1.05 percent increase in the producer food price index in the long run. The asymmetric impact of the exchange rate on Iranian food price fluctuations suggests that policymakers should prioritize stabilizing the national currency to manage the movement of food prices. This implies that economic policymakers, who aim to reduce inflation, protect vulnerable populations, and ensure food security, need to consider currency stability in their decision-making process. In addition to price liberalization, supportive policies should be implemented to prevent economic barriers to accessing food. Overall, these findings highlight the importance of understanding the relationships between key economic variables and food prices in Iran, and the need for policymakers to take these factors into account when making decisions regarding inflation, food security, and supporting vulnerable populations.

In this study, the focus was on investigating the asymmetric impact of oil price, real GDP, and exchange rates on food price fluctuations in Malaysia. The findings revealed that the exchange rate had a significant asymmetric effect on the movement of food prices, indicating its importance in understanding the current food market situation in Iran. This suggests that policymakers should prioritize addressing exchange rate issues rather than solely focusing on crude oil prices when formulating food price policies. The study emphasizes that stabilizing the national currency is of greater importance than controlling oil prices, as demonstrated by the research findings. Rising food prices have a detrimental impact on the economic access of vulnerable groups to sufficient food and pose a significant threat to food security. Therefore, it is recommended to pay attention to the positive relationship between increasing exchange rates and agricultural product prices. In the short term, it is essential to implement supportive policies to prevent a reduction in economic access to food. These policies should aim to address the challenges faced by vulnerable groups in accessing affordable food. By taking these measures, policymakers can mitigate the negative consequences of rising food prices and ensure food security for all.

Due to the negative effects of agricultural production activities on the environment, especially water and soil pollution, one of the most important decisions in the agricultural sector is the optimal allocation of resources. This decision should be in such a way that while maximizing the profit of farmers, it will result in less environmental effects. This action is often done by determining the optimal cropping pattern (CP). In this research, by quantifying the economic, social and environmental effects, a compatible CP with agricultural resources was presented by using a multi-objective planning model.

The social effects of different agricultural crops were calculated using various indicators such as social solidarity, social security, participation and quality of life through interviews with farmers. The environmental effects and economic efficiency of the CP were also considered through the concept of life cycle assessment (LCA) and gross margin per ha, respectively. Further, by calculating socio-economic and environmental indicators, the optimal CP was formulated by developing a multi-objective function based on maximizing profit, reducing water and fertilizer consumption, reducing negative environmental effects of production and improving social indicators. In order to solve the multiple programming model, the method of weighted LP-metric model was used. The information required in this study included information on the production pattern, consumption of inputs, price and yeild of major agricultural crops of Sari County.

The results showed that considering the social indicators, the least attention of the farmers was related to corn and onion, and the five priority crops were identified as wheat, cotton, lentils, rice and canola, respectively. The results of LCA showed that the cultivation of tobacco, canola and corn in this city have the most negative environmental effects. In the optimal CP by combining economic, social and environmental goals, alfalfa, cotton and corn were removed from the stydy area, and the cultivated area of cucumber and clover showed positive changes compared to the current pattern. Also, the cultivated area of the cereal decreaseed in the areaChanges in the cultivated area of barley were predicted more than wheat and rice. The total cultivated area reduced by 15%, resulting in 12.91% and 14.46% reduction in water and fertilizer consumption, respectively. In addition, the efficiency of the program in the studied area decreased by 12.97%.

The development of environmental goals in the implementation of CP programs requires that policymakers consider appropriate economic incentives for farmers. Therefore, policy makers should find suitable solutions to make the farmers to follow the proposed CP.

The collected information from the perspective of experts, key informants as well as research background was the basis for designing a new questionnaire using random sampling method and Cochran sampling method among 120 locals (villages of Qarabagh city of Ghazni province in Afghanistan). , completed. Findings showed that social capital through a complex and dynamic mechanism can determine the sustainable rural livelihood in a community so that the average income growth rate in the sample during the period 1390-1420 is equal to + 43.5% and with the improvement of income situation, Social justice and interest in economic activities in the village were predicted to grow. Also, the forecast results indicate that the average annual growth of social assets in the study area will be equal to + 1.65 percent.

The information required in this study was collected through Regional Water Organization of Kogiluyeh and Boyerahmad province in 2014. The results show that the shadow value of water for agricultural and urban use was 5411 and 9643 Rials, respectively, which could also be considered as a maximum water price. Hence, the of agricultural water price should be higher than 1279 Rials (minimum price) and lower than 5411 Rials (maximum price), which will have beneficiary for water suppliers and no loss for water consumers. Results for urban consumption showed that the price per cubic meter of urban water should be higher than 2513 Rials to cover the full cost of water supply and lower than 9643 Rials as the economic value of urban consumers.

Kheirabad river basin is part of Zohre-Jarahi basin which is rich in surface water resources. But unprincipled usage of water and soil resources and also increasing water harvesting under climate change reduced the ability of the basin to respond to water demand. Reducing water storage of the Kowsar Dam as a result of reducing surface water inflows, make a concern to meet the future water demand at the basin. Therefore, the management of water resources in this basin is essential. In this study, we used a systemic approach to identify the factor affecting water supply and demand along with feedback and interaction between different elements for studying the behavior of the water resources system over time. The results of the study showed that the available surface water decrease and groundwater balance will be negative. Also, population growth and development of the agricultural sector will lead to an increasing trend in water demand and an increase in the surface and groundwater resources withdraw. Under these circumstances, water scarcity index is increasing and the water system sustainability index is smaller than the unit. The results also revealed that under business as usual (B.a.U) condition, the vulnerability index and maximum deficit of the water system are 0.119 and 0.213, and the reliability and sustainability indices are 0.50 and 0.703, respectively. Therefore, according to the results, the probability of not meeting the increasing demand of water, thus increasing the population and the level of crop cultivation, is predicted by using available water resources during the study period. Therefore, it is necessary to apply demand-side and supply-side management policies in Kheirabad River Basin. Among water demand-side management policies, increasing irrigation efficiency and changing crop pattern, by increasing the sustainability index from 0.703 to 1, are the most efficient policies. Besides, decreasing per capita water consumption plays an important role in increasing the water sustainability index in the basin.

Today, importance of wetlands stability has increased greatly. So that, unstable wetlands have many destructive effects on societies. In this study, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) approach was used to determine the weight of different factors that impact wetland ecosystems in 2016. To fully reflect the stability of the Shadegan wetland have been prepared 84 questionnaires of experts. The goals of the study were divided into three main criteria, determination of the function value, environmental constraints, and socio-economic value of each index. The result showed that Shadegan wetland stability is weak (0.483). Also, the result showed that in order to improve the Shadegan wetland stability, implementing programs of improving the water supply for wetland, wetland protection laws and methods of coping with the natural disasters such as drought is necessary.