asghar mobarak

The coronavirus has become a global pandemic with many economic consequences and has affected all countries of the world, and it is expected that the global economy will face a significant recession in 2020. Meanwhile, Iran, like many countries involved, suffers from the economic consequences. The spread of coronavirus in Iran will also have a great impact on the domestic economy; According to economic experts in Iran, the story is a bit more complicated; on the supply side, the economy is facing downward pressure. However, without the corona, the Iranian economy was projected to record positive non-oil growth in 2019. The outbreak of the new coronavirus since the end of 2018 and its continuation in 2019, has put the Iranian economy in a state of recession with uncertainty (uncertainty). The decline in demand for Iranian exports (and the decline in global trade in general) affects aggregate demand from foreign trade. In the domestic sector, aggregate demand is affected both by the decline in household income and by the decline in some goods and services that lead to the spread of the virus (such as transportation, restaurants and hotels, clothing, etc.). On the other hand, the supply of the whole economy has been faced with a supply shock due to the disruption in the raw material supply network and the limited activity of some trade unions. Assessing the economic effects of the coronavirus outbreak on household livelihoods shows that although all income groups will be affected by the new situation, the lower deciles will be more vulnerable.

The existing literature primarily indicates a positive association between institutions and economic growth. However, institutions do not exert a similar impact on economic growth across different sets of countries. In this study, we analyzed the impact of institutional quality on economic growth using a sample of 15 members from G7 and D8 Countries in the period 1984-2017 using a Panel Smooth Transition Regression framework. González, Teräsvirta, and Van Dijk (2005) indicated that there is a non-linear relation between institutional quality and growth modulated by institutional development. On the other hand, we found that institutional quality can positively (or negatively) affect growth in case of a low (high) level of institutional development. This result suggests therefore a reconciliation of the theories asserting that institutional quality can “sand the wheels” or “grease the wheels” of economic growth. The main result of this study confirms the negative impact of institutional quality on economic growth in this block of countries.

In recent years, the factors that influence economic growth have traversed beyond the set of factors that are proposed in conventional growth theories; namely, institutional factors have been considered by researchers. Why some countries are moving toward rich countries in terms of economic performance is a question that has long occupied the minds of economists, and the answer to this question is fundamental as to the formation of economic growth patterns. In this study, based on the division of countries in terms of development, it has been examined as to which of the institutional variables have the highest priority in influencing economic growth. To this end, using a dynamic system data approach, the resource curse phenomenon in the studied countries is first studied and then analyzed using variables such as variables of the institutional environment, human capital, and other control variables affecting economic growth. In this study, two groups of (developing and developed) countries have been studied, which are estimated and analyzed for the period 1995-2016. Analysis of research coefficients shows that the resource curse phenomenon is existent in the developing countries but not in developed countries. On the other hand, the analysis of the results of the coefficients of the variables of different models show that the weak institutional qualities and the low level of development of human capital have led to the intensification of the resource curse in the countries in question.

In this research, the relationship between government size and institutional quality with economic growth in the framework of a comprehensive and complete model has been studied in relation to other studies, and also with the econometric approach of Panel Smooth Transition regression model (PSTR) as one of the most prominent models regime modifications have been investigated in panel data and are trying to overcome the problems in previous empirical studies. In this research, the simple average of four indicators of economic freedom of the indicators (ICRG), six good governance indicators as institutional indicators, government size, the index of institutions guaranteeing the implementation of contracts and human capital on the economic growth of the  countries studied in the period 19951995- was used. After performing the reliability test of the variables, the nonlinear least squares method (NLS) was used to estimate and the results in this group of countries were rejected by the linearity hypothesis, a two-regime with a threshold size of 01625/6251,0/ for institutional quality indicators in The research countries suggest that the results of the research shows that the positive effects of institutional quality indicators, the effectiveness of government size, economic freedom, human capital and other control variables on economic growth in the studied countries, however, are more intense than the thresholds calculated for Indicators of institutional quality are indicators of economic freedom. In addition,
physical capital variables in both regimes have a positive effect on economic growth.

One of the controversial issues in the economic growth literature is the effect of the growth of international trade, with an emphasis on institutional factors. In this research, the effect of institutional factors and the degree of trade openness on economic growth of OIC member countries using the convergence-growth equation and system estimation of generalized moments of dynamic panel data during the 1995- 2015 period is tested. Due to the expertise of most of these countries, in the production and export of raw materials, we have used three variables of the degree of trade openness: intragroup trade, outsourcing and total trade (each of which is a percentage of net domestic production). The results of the calculations show that total trade, outsourcing, investment in physical capital, institutional and human factors are the drivers of economic growth in these countries. While intra-group trade, population growth and the expansion of the consumption body of governments have a deterrent effect on the economic growth of these countries. Another important consequence is that, in the present circumstances, the expansion of trade relations in the form of regional and trans-regional cooperation with the countries of the Organization of the Islamic Conference will not lead to Iran's economic growth and due to the direct relationship these variables with economic growth It can be argued that the abundance of natural resources, along with the weakness of institutional factors, has led to weakening the industry as an exchangeable sector and reducing industrial exports and, as a result, has slowed the economic growth of these countries. Therefore, it is possible to minimize the export of natural resources in raw materials and the share of revenues from the export of these resources in the country's budget, as well as to support non-oil sectors and establish institutions such as the postponing fund and the investment of income Oil has prevented Dutch disease from happening in these countries, and Finally, we can say that Islamic countries continue to suffer from curse of natural resources.

The main challenge of developing countries is to achieve growth and development. The extant economic growth literature illustrates that the quality of institutions and social infrastructure are important factors that influence the economic growth and development. Accordingly, many analysts believe that regarding such institutional factors, the rule of law is one of the most prominent aspects necessary for a system to achieve investment and economic growth. This study aims to investigate the impact of institutional variables on economic growth in developed and developing countries for the period 1995-2015. To this end, Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model has been used. The estimation results of model reject the linearity hypothesis, and estimate a model with two regimes that proposes a threshold at institutional quality indicators of 0.1627 and 0.625 for the countries under study. It is demonstrated that the factor of rule of law has a positive impact on economic growth; however, this impact is higher in the second regime. The results also show that in both regimes, the variables of institutional quality indices, economic freedom, human capital and other control variables have a positive effect on economic growth. Moreover, the intensity of the variables influencing the changes in both groups intensifies when institutional quality improves.

Capital is a prerequisite for economic growth. Hence attracting foreign direct investment as a complement to domestic financial resources is one of the ways to fund capital. According to studies, direct foreign investment and foreign trade depend on many factors that the business environment is one of them. Improving the business environment plays an important role in increasing the competitiveness of firms and sustained economic growth. on the other hand, the issue of exchange costs in the present economic circles is of particular importance. Experts believe that reducing transaction costs will contribute to the growth of an countries. In other words, if economic spaces, such as markets, firms, economic institutions, etc., by avoiding abusive and unnecessary rules, facilitate the exchange process, the result will be the volume of high exchanges and economic mobility in such an environment. In this research, we have tried to define the institutional environment by defining the indicators of the World Bank and the Heritage Foundation in assessing the business environment as indicators of the cost of the transaction, and by selecting a number of these indicators, based on the views of the experts and Using AHP-Topsis, Expert Choice and Software (SPSS), the status of some selected countries at the transaction cost To be determined . The final results show that in any country where more security and economic freedom prevail in the business environment and exchanges become faster and easier, then the cost of exchanging in those countries will be less.

In this study¡ the relationship between the Dutch disease effect and institutional situation on economic growth in oil-producing countries is investigated during the period 1960-2014¡ using panel data. The experimental results obtained show that the negative effect of natural resource abundance¡ along with weak institutional factors does not change after importing variables affecting economic growth Such as physical investment¡ government consumption expenditure ¡ growth of trade and economic openness. In addition the abundance of natural resources has led to an increase in value added growth in the services sector¡ reducing the growth of value added of the industrial sector¡ reducing the growth of industrial exports and relative changes in the share of value added sectors in favor of the service sector. Therefore¡ there is evidence of Dutch disease in these countries. Accordingly¡ due to the direct relationship of these variables with economic growth¡ It could be argued that the abundance of natural resources along with the weak institutional factors lead to Weakening of industrial sector as Interchangeable part and reducing industrial exports and thus to slow down economic growth. Dutch disease may be prevented in these countries with minimize natural resource exports raw and the share of export revenues in the state budget sources and support the non-oil sector and the establishment of institutions such as savings and investment fund oil revenues.

This paper investigates the effects of natural resource abundance on economic growth considering the role of institutional quality. For this purpose, has been investigated effects of institutional quality such as government effectiveness, control of corruption, Voice & Accountability and Rule of law along with resource abundance on economic growth in major oil economies countries by using panel data technique over the period 1996-2007. The results indicate that in these countries institutional quality has a significant positive effect on economic growth and resource abundant inversely related with economic growth. Also, natural resource abundance has led to decrease in institutional quality. So, natural resource abundance with low level of institutional quality in vicious circle has caused economic growth further reduces. This issue recommended, oil revenues management model have to reform for promotion of institutional quality. It is one of main and suitable Guidelines to break vicious circle and cause to increase and satiability of economic growth.

Researchers have concluded that crime as a social phenomenon may be caused by various economic and social factors. Given the importance of the issue in different countries, many researches have been accomplished in the field of the impact of these factors on crime and economic factors such as poverty, unemployment, inflation, unequal income distribution, industrialization and urbanization, as to be are among the factors influencing crime. In this study, given to the economic and social importance of the issue of crime and the negative effects caused by it, Three economic factors affecting crime in the region (MENA) has been studied over the years 2010- 2005 and using the dependent variable instability Act (proxy crime) and the independent variables of inflation, the likelihood of conviction and Human Development Index to analyze the relevance and effectiveness of the independent variables on the dependent variable was investigated. The results demonstrate that inflation coefficients and the human development index are significant to crime rates. This means that, an increase in inflation causes an increment in the amount of crime; whereas, alleviation in human development leads to a decrease in crime rate, in relative to the coefficients attained. Finally, with due attention to the researches performed in this article, appropriate recommended policies for inflation and the human development index, have been offered, for a decrease in crime rate in these countries.

In this Paper we have attempted to examine the impact of trade and financial liberalization on both real and financial sectors of Iranian Economy. We have used a Vector Auto Regression (VAR) model to test our hypothesis. The result shows that trade liberalization play an important role in economic growth and financial development. However, financial liberalization have had negligible impact, indicating that if financial liberalization is to have its significant effects on the economy, the government has to provide pre-requisites and pre-conditions needed. Until then the country has to follow a prudential financial policy.

Theoretically, productivityis recognized as a production factorwhich affect on the economic growth alike as other production factors. Investment in research and development (R&D) affects on the total factor productivity (TFP) in economy. The main objective of this paper is to investigate the roleof investment in R & D on TFP increasingin two-digit industry codes in Iran.Cross-sectional data is used on two-digit industry code (ISIC) for nineindustries during time period from 1374 to 1387. Research and development expenditures alongside with other variables such capital-output ratio, the openness degree of the economy, effective foreign exchange rate, the share of private ownership, skilled manpower, foreign raw materials consumption share, and industry profitability are implied in econometrics model to analyze their effects by panel data approach.The results indicate that in the period of study, skilled manpower, capital-output ratio, industry profitability, foreign raw materials consumption share, the openness degree of the economy, the share of private ownership, effective foreign exchange rate, all by two lags in the model, but research and development expenditures with three lags have a positive effect on total factor productivity (TFP) in various industries.In this regard, the share of private ownership has the most effect on total factor productivity. Also, the higher effect of R & D on TFP is in chemical products, petroleum, rubber, plastics, and fabricated metal products, machinery and equipment industries.

One of the most important controversial issues in economics is economic inequality in the long-term economic growth. Due to the convergence of the idea that the hypothesized absolute convergence is known، the neoclassical growth model of Solow - Swan is expected. The basic assumptions within the model predict economic growth in underdeveloped countries will overtake the developed countries، so that over time، the income inequality between different countries will disappear. In other words، according to this hypothesis، the international poverty should be disappeared by itself.

One of the main fundamental problems (facing economic theory) is reducing the gap in income between rich and poor countries. This question is related to one of the oldest and most controversial issue in the economy which is called the income convergence hypothesis. The growth models such as Solow neoclassical growth model-factor price equalization theorem Swan and Samuelson is predicted.

Time series model results show that only Indonesia، Malaysia، and Turkey have، towards America (a country with a high GDP per capita) are convergent، while other countries have been diverging from it.

In brief، tests of convergence between the country and the other countries which are studied only Bangladesh and Nigeria convergence between Iran and the two countries have been seen.

The purpose of this paper has been to study the main determinants of productivity in manufacturing industries of Iran. The main emphasize has been on the role of institutions. We have used productivity in two digit manufacturing industries based on ISIC classification as dependent variable, and expenditures on R&D,, Manufactured Exports, Investment on Manufacturing Industries and Square of employment as Firm Size in addition to Institutions for which we have taken the variables such as number of court litigation documents regarding property rights, security and aggression, transparency in law and order and corruption as explanatory variables for the changes in total factor productivity during the Period 1374-1386.The results show that while the coefficients for all other variables were positive and Significant. The coefficients of Institutions were, however negative and statistically significant for all the institutional variables, indicating that institutions in Iran reduces opportunity and incentive for industrial investment and thereby acting as important hindrance factors for the growth of industrial productivity.

The purpose of this paper has been to study the main determinants of productivity in manufacturing industries of Iran. The main emphasize has been on the role of institutions. We have used productivity in two digit manufacturing industries based on ISIC classification as dependent variable, and expenditures on R&D,, Manufactured Exports, Investment on Manufacturing Industries and Square of employment as Firm Size in addition to Institutions for which we have taken the variables such as number of court litigation documents regarding property rights, security and aggression, transparency in law and order and corruption as explanatory variables for the changes in total factor productivity during the Period 1374-1386.The results show that while the coefficients for all other variables were positive and Significant. The coefficients of Institutions were, however negative and statistically significant for all the institutional variables, indicating that institutions in Iran reduces opportunity and incentive for industrial investment and thereby acting as important hindrance factors for the growth of industrial productivity.

In this paper, we study the effects of R&D investment on TFP in oil and gas industry in Iran. A model based on ARDL approach was used to estimate production function for oil and gas sector during 1959-2007. The results show that investment on R&D has a significant effect on TFP and productivity of labour force and capital in oil and gas sector. This conclustion is very important because of the large share of oil and gas sector in Iranian economy, high added value of oil derivatives, and high productivity of investment in R&D in this industry.

A Growing literature deals with an increasing number of aspects of the resource curse. One of the main areas of active research is Dutch Disease، which refers to a situation when a booming export sector increases the relative price of non-tradable goods and services، thus hurting the rest of tradable goods sector. In this study we investigate the relationship between natural resource abundance، Dutch Disease and economic growth in major petroleum exporters by using panel data for the period 1960 to 2008. The findings show that the negative effect of natural resource abundance and deficiency of institutional factors on economic growth remains after controlling for other variables such as physical investment، openness، government expenditure and changes in terms of trade that are important in a growth model. The main findings of this study show that natural resource abundance tends to increase the growth of service sector value added and the ratio of service value added to manufacturing value added in GDP and decrease the growth of manufacturing value added and share of manufacturing exports in total exports. To the extent that the service sector proxies the non-tradable sector and manufacturing the non-resource tradable sector، this provides some corroboration of the predictions of the Dutch Disease. The findings also show that the growth of manufacturing value added، changes in the share of manufacturing exports in total exports and the ratio of value added of manufacturing to services are positively correlated with economic growth. Given the direct relationship of these variables with economic growth، we can conclude that natural resource abundance، combined with structural weaknesses، leads to weakening of the industrial sector as a tradable sector and reduces industrial exports، thus lowering the growth rate of these countries. We can minimize such negative impact by minimizing exports of raw materials، as well as share of such revenues in the public budget، supporting non-oil sectors and creating modalities such as oil stabilization and reserve funds.

Although at present time trade can not be the engine of growth by itself but still can help developing countries a lot. A developing country can move from a non-efficient point to an optimum point in production through trade. That's why export of industry in each country depends on exchange rates, research and development and productivity. The main purpose of this study is the role of R & D activities in the export industry with ISIC two-digit codes. For this purpose, a statistical panel (9 Industrial Groups during 2008-1995) within a logarithmic multivariate econometric model was used. Besides R & D expenditure variable effects of variables such as real effective exchange rate, the value of each industry profitability, firm size and the amount of square workforce, the share of foreign raw materials on export volume is also investigated. The results of this Regression Model indicate that within the study period, the real & effective rate of exchange, the amount of each industry's profits, labor force, and firm size has positive impacts on exports and the share of foreign raw materials (unlike Vernon cycle) does not affect exports, and R & D costs with some three-break codes have positive effects in some codes & in some other they make no sense.

In this paper, the Non-oil export's effect on economic growth and income gap across Iran and its industrial partners is tested using time series and panel data datasets. To this end, the ordinary least square (OLS) and generalized method of moment (GMM) are applied. Results show that total export and oil export have positive effect on Iran’s economic growth, but non-oil export is an obstacle for its economic growth and is a factor that increases its income gap. With Non-oil export basket, Iranian economy will not have gain from non-oil exports in international market. Other results show that physical and human accumulation and financial development are engines for Iranian economic growth and factors that decrease its income gap and vis-à-vis population growth and nonoccurrence between official and parallel exchange market increase income gap across Iran and its industrial partners.

Effects of institutional factors on economic growth in Islamic countries (with emphasis on economic corruption in Iran) " Asghar mobarak (expert of international Trade)The different models of economic growth especially the neoclassic ones viewed thedisparate economic growths as the resulting from differences in economic factors such ascapital (physical and human) and productivity. However, the difference in accumulationof capital and productivity are themselves rooted in factors that institutional economistsintroduce as the instructional structure of any country.They don’t deem lack of capital or labor force as the main reason for low income percapita in the undeveloped countries. As a matter of fact, in their opinion, it is the lack ofappropriate institutional grounds for productive economic activities and accumulation ofcapital that they refer as the main reason for that. Most of the empirical studies conducted assess the impact of Institutions on economic growth as positive. In the present study, we have delved into the institutional factor as an economic factor on economic growth. The institutional factor is includes the ruling institutions (the right to express views and respond, political stability, controlling corruption, rule of law, the quality of bureaucracy and the effectiveness of the government) and is separately examined in the present article for the designated Islamic countries of Egypt, Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Kuwait with different levels of development in the 19802005- period, using the combined Data method. The results show that the degree of effectiveness of Institutional and governance factors in countries like Iran, Egypt, Turkey and Indonesia is less compared to other countries.

Trade liberalization has impacts on the quality of the environment, i.e. on the emission of pollutant gases according to its size, composition and technology. On the other hand, trade liberalization is followed by international capital mobility intensification. Meanwhile according to the Pollution Haven hypothesis, transfer of pollutant industries starts from countries with tough environmental policies toward those with moderate environmental policies. This paper tries to assess the impacts of trade liberalization on the emission of carbon dioxide, nitrogen dioxide and sulfur dioxide (CO2, NO2, and SO2), as well as to examine the relationship between Kuznets Environment Curve and the Pollution Haven hypothesis. Therefore, Kuznet Environment Curve is estimated on the basis of the combined data, Panel Data method and fixed effects approach through comparing developed-vs.-developing countries within 1990-2008. The estimation results indicate that the increase in trade liberalization and per capita income in developed countries with higher degrees of development will lead to the decline of carbon dioxide and other pollutant gases. Conversely, this would be followed by more emission of such gases in less developed and developing countries in a way that the elasticity of “carbon dioxide emission” variable in relation to the export of pollutant industries, the import of pollutant industries and the economic openness index in developed countries widely varies depending on the type of pollutant gases.

In this paper, we attempted to examine the impact of trade and financial liberalization on both real and financial sectors of the Iranian economy. We used a Vector Auto Regression (VAR) model to test our hypothesis. The result shows that trade liberalization plays an important role in the economic growth and financial development. However, financial liberalization has had negligible impact, indicating that if financial liberalization is to have its significant effects on the economy, the government has to provide pre-requisites and pre-conditions needed. Until then the country has to follow a prudential financial policy.

This paper discusses the state of new economy components in measuring the different industries (sorted by ISIC cods) efficiency in Iran during the period over 1995 - 2005.Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) approache was applied to obtsin the results which showed that the efficiency in different industries is not the same. To determine the effects of new economy component on efficiency in this framework, by using pooling data method, we found that there is a positive effect for the following factors on efficiency: R & D expenditures, industry size, imported materials and private property share.

This objective of this study is to evaluate the effects of trade policies and oil revenue on Total Factor Productivity (TFP). To end this, the effects of economic openness aspects of imports and exports intensity on labor productivity are examined. In fact, openness can be a main channel to transfer technology and the effects of technological overflow into different sectors of economy. This paper reviews the relevant theories to identify and estimate an empirical model in order to analyze the effects of openness and oil revenue on TFP in oil exporting countries. The countries in the sample include Iran, Algeria, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, UAE and Kuwait. The results of this paper show that openness, capital intensity, foreign investment, human capital have positive effect on TFP while oil revenue has negative effect on TFP.