mohammadreza kohansal

The demand function enables the analysis of the effects of the price changes of each input on the amount of demand of the other inputs. In this study, to estimate the demand function of corn inputs in 2017-18, an almost ideal supply system was used by cross-sectional data for 150 farmers in Mahidasht plain of Kermanshah. The results indicated that own-price elasticities of compensated demand are negative for all inputs. Based on the absolute values of the own-price elasticities, demands all inputs are realized to be inelastic. The cross elasticities coefficients revealed complementary relationships between irrigation water and seed and irrigation water and machinery, and the substitutionary relationship between labor and machinery The Allen and Morishima elasticity coefficients showed that machinery and seed are strongly substitutes for seed and labor . Based on the calculated cost elasticities, use of irrigation water and machinery are deeply dependent to the level of spending on corn productioncredits.

Researchers consider social capital as an important component of economic development and a key factor in sustainable rural development, and consider education as a factor in creating and strengthening it too. The aim of this study was to analyze the effect of extension education on farmers' social capital in Khorasan Razavi using seemingly unrelated regression equations. The research tool was a questionnaire that the calculated coefficients indicate its high reliability. The statistical population of this study includes all farmers in the province. Due to the size and dispersion of villages, we used two-stage cluster sampling and the required sample size estimated at 384 people. The results showed that the four components of social capital have different conditions and also the general variable of social capital with an average of 0.61 is slightly higher than the average and therefore does not have favorable conditions. Quchan has the first rank and Khoshab has the second rank. Statistical analysis of the data showed that among the 11 independent variables, education variables, cooperative member and ownership status did not have a significant effect on social capital, but other independent variables showed a significant positive or negative effect on social capital. The variable of participation in the training course (except for the component of social cohesion) had a positive and significant effect on other components and also on the variable of social capital, which indicates the importance and key role of extension training in improving the social capital of farmers.

Foreign trade of agricultural products due to high and stable exchange rate plays an important role in expanding exports and imports against various games. Among agricultural products, saffron is one of the most important agricultural exports that in recent years has been able to maintain and strengthen its position in global markets. It can be an important step to maintain the Iranian authorities - as the largest producer and exporter of saffron - in global markets and further development of the export of this product by using more information about it. Therefore, the present study seeks to investigate the factors affecting the e-commerce of Iranian saffron by being affected by the role of trade sanctions during the period 2007-2018 using a two-way panel model. Appropriate results, variables of export and import volume, economy size, importer income, world trade level index and population have a growing and significant effect and the EU trade embargo variable has a negative and significant effect on trade value. Considering the positive and significant effect of the income variable in Iran's saffron trade and in order to maintain Iran's position in the world market and prevent re-export by other theories of the UAE and Spain, despite the above conditions, a policy is proposed. Saffron can be exported to final markets.

In recent decades, due to the universal of organic agriculture around the world, the importance of soil, human and ecosystem health, production of organic and healthy food for the growing population and increasing the country's share in the global markets of organic products, the development of organic agriculture is widespread in Iran. Therefore, in this paper, an attempt has been made to study the tendency to adopt of saffron farmers for production of organic saffron Compared to the conventional product and the factors affecting it. The statistical population of the study is saffron farmers of Torbat-e Heydariyeh and Zaveh. Based on the table of Bartlett et al., the sample size was 380 people. The stratified random sampling method was used for selection of individuals in the community and to analyze the data, the Heckman Tobit two-step model was used. The data gathered from Torbat-e Heydariyeh region’s saffron farmers’ answers to the prepared questionnaire in 2019. Based on the results, the variables of experience, education, consumption of livestock manure and awareness index in the Probit model have a positive and significant effect and the variables of main activity and chemical fertilizer consumption have a negative and significant effect on adopting organic saffron production. The variable of negative attitude towards organic cultivation in the linear regression pattern was significant and positive. Therefore, a negative attitude leads to a tendency of farmers to receive more money for the cultivation of organic saffron. The variables of experience, education and main activity in the linear regression model have a positive and significant effect and the variables of income, farm area and farm age have a negative and significant effect on the willingness of farmers to earn money for organic saffron cultivation. Based on the results, it is suggested that saffron farmers be informed about the management of organic farms, the market for the selling organic products in different ways and prepare requirements for new saffron producers to take benefit from the experiences of skilled saffron producers.

Sustainable agricultural development is a multidimensional concept, has become increasingly important over time. Therefore, identifying the factors affecting each of the dimensions of sustainable agriculture is necessary for proper planning. In this paper, an attempt is made to determine the factors affecting the four dimensions of sustainable agricultural development in Khorasan Razavi province by using seemingly unrelated regression equations (SURE) and using a sample of 398 farmers selected by two-stage random cluster method. Data obtained from the completion of the questionnaire in 2019. The results show that, the average indicator of social sustainability is 0.55, environmental sustainability is 0.47, economic sustainability is 0.41 and political sustainability is 0.32. Also, there are significat correlations between variables of participation in training courses, interest in agriculture and job satisfaction with the components of agricultural sustainability. There is significat correlation between membership in farmers' cooperative with political stability, land ownership with social and political components, and land integration with economic component of sustainability. Accordingly, it is suggested that extension trainings in the field of sustainable agriculture be developed. According to the priority of managerial sustainability, investment in agricultural infrastructure, improvement of decision-making methods, development and strengthening of agricultural organizations, development of support laws and the development of sustainable employment be on the desicionmakers. In addition, developing a proper marketing system with the aim of preventing waste and reducing production costs will ensure the stability of farmers' incomes.

Good governance consists a set of norms and values. In this research, we first use the Meta-synthesis method to find the important factors of agricultural governance worldwide. We have Iranian experts for ranking the variables by using the Shanon Entropy method. These experts weigh the variables by a pairwise comparison matrix of Fuzzy method. The results of the Meta-synthesis model show that international policy, group participation, and observance standards have the highest importance and rank. However, the Type-2 Fuzzy analysis the factors of agricultural sustainability, group participation have the highest weight in the political, social and environmental areas and the factors of increase production, and marketing have the highest weight in the economic area.

Survey of revealed preferences of Iranian citizens for sugar and lump Mohammad Reza Kohansal and Elahe Azam Rahmati Abstract The high proportion of sugar and lump of sugar of energy’s consumption shows that many Iranian households are extremely dependent on these products in their food bundle. Therefore, recognizing consumer preferences for the types of products is very important for policy making and planning. In this study, it was investigated the structural changes in consumer preferences between (2007)-(2017) years. To achieve the goal non-parametric approaches is used that is based on Weak Axiom of Revealed Preference (WARP). The results of nonparametric approach indicated that there is an inconsistency in the WARP matrix in years of 2010, 2011 and 2012. The assumption of the reliability of consumer preferences has been violated in these years, which an important reason for it is increasing tariffs of imported sugar. JEL Classification: D11 Keywords: Preferences, Sugar, lump of sugar, WARP matrix.

Production inputs are one of the most important factors affecting the risk of agricultural products. This study aimed at investigating the effects of inputs on the production risk of irrigated and rainfed wheat through the information collected from 221 producers of these products in eastern region of Golestan province of Iran in the 2015-2016 cropping year using the suggested model of Just and Pope (1979). The results showed that for both products, seed input had a significant positive impact on the average production; also, the inputs of fertilizer and consumed water had the production increasing impact on the average irrigated wheat production, while such an impact could be found by application of the inputs including fertilizer, pesticide, machinery and labor for the rainfed wheat. In addition, the study results indicated that the pesticide input used for both products had a risk increasing impact on the production; furthermore, the inputs of seed and labor for the rainfed wheat and the fertilizer and machinery inputs for the irrigated wheat reduced the production risk. Therefore, the study recommended using properly the risk reducing inputs at the right time to reduce the production risk of irrigated and rainfed wheat crops and as a result, to increase the average production of such a strategic product.

The sub-branch of food industry is one of the most profitable ways communication between two sectors of industry and agriculture and also prerequisite for an industrialization strategy and providing food security in country. The present study tries to examine effect of exchange rate volatility on Iran's food Industries exports and value added by framework SVAR at period of 1972-2015. The examined variables include of food Industries exports, exchange rate volatility, value added, inflation rate, and Iran's trade-offs. The results showed that short-run effects of trade-offs and inflation rate variables are negatively correlated and value-added and exchange rate volatility variables are positively correlated to food exports. On the other hand, long-run results between variables showed that all variables in the long-run have positive relationships with food Industries exports. According to the results, it is suggested that government put in place control of inflation and improvement of short-run exchange relationship. Also, the results indicate that exchange rate volatility increase export volume in short-run (beginning of period) and in following periods cause exporters activities to become less active than importers activities and reduce export volume of food industry.Therefore, due to direct and positive long-run exchange rate volatility effects on food exports and role of these industries in development and value added, development of food exports products with a focus on expansion of these industries and use of conversion and complementary industries with agricultural products to increase shelf life of products is suggested. Also, since exchange rate volatility increases food exports only in a short-run in first period, it is sujested to invesigate the risks of food-related activities and lack of price stability and market regulation for the future studies.

in this study, we try to examine the interrelationship between economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions and fossil fuel energy consumption in the short and long run, Without prejudging the endogenous or exougenous nature of each one. Also, the effect of foreign direct investment and exports and imports on each of the variables of economic growth, energy use and carbon dioxide emissions was investigated separately. For this purpose, gross domestic product per capita, per capita carbon dioxide, foreign direct investment, energy use (oil equivalent) export and import levels were used during the period from 1970 to 2015. The results of impuls response functions indicate that there is a two-way relationship between each of the variables of energy consumption and GDP and carbon dioxide emission. Also, the results of variance decomposition indicate that in the long run, among the variables studied, last year's economic growth, export and direct foreign investment have the greatest impact on GDP. and The amount of last year's CO2 emission, economic growth and export will have the greatest impact on carbon dioxide emissions.

Using spatial econometrics to investigate the factors affecting the share of cheese brands in the Mashhad market can improve the standard econometric degradation. In this research, we have been trying to select a model that considers spatial communication between brands (with emphasis on diversity). The results of the SAC pattern estimated for the share of the Kalleh showed that the Kalleh diversity has a positive and significant relation with the share of the Kalleh, and the other variety of brands (Pegah and Sabah) has a negative and significant relationship. Also, the price of the Kalleh with the share of the Kalleh has a negative and significant relationship. The results of the SEM pattern estimated for Pegah share showed that Kalleh and Sabah diversity had a negative and significant relation with the share of Pegah cheese and Pegah diversity had a positive and significant relation with Pegah’s share. The results of the SDM pattern estimated for Sabah showed Kalleh and Pegah variety have a negative and significant relation with the share of Sabah cheese and Sabah variety has a positive and significant relation with Sabah’s share. The price of Kalleh has a negative and significant relationship with Sabah’s share. Sabah also has a negative (statistically meaningless) relation with Sabah prices. Based on this research, it can be suggested that the brands of Kalah, Pegah and Sabah should increase the focus on cheese diversity in order to increase their share in Mashhad cheese market.

Inefficiency of marketing networks of agricultural products and the price differences between sale price by farmers and purchase price by final consumers are the main issues in the marketing of agricultural products. This study aimed mainly at investigating the factors affecting the marketing margins in Neyshabour plain of Iran. For this purpose, within the geographically weighted regression with adaptive cores (GWR-A), the upgraded version of ‘Mark Up Model’ was used for all crops. Statistics and information were obtained through interviews and questionnaires completed by 366 farmers in 2016. Moran test results showed that there was a positive spatial autocorrelation on the marketing margin of crops. The results of GWR model indicated a positive impact of marketing costs and retail prices in most areas is positive and a negative impact of cultivated areas on the marketing margins. Also, the coefficients of the Mark Up Model were estimated regionally and with respect to farmer’s location. Finally, a number of suggestions were made, including: reforming the marketing network in order to reduce the margin of the market, using statistical methods based on the location of data in similar studies, reforming the market system and the sale of products based on the development of professional commerce companies, implementing the special information plans related to the market information on agricultural products as well as the implementation of specific cultural and social programs.

In this research, had Analysis the effect of five macroeconomic variables including exchange rate, gross domestic product, prices of agriculture, agricultural investment and money supply on agricultural goods exports. In the present study, using Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) and the Johansen method and during period 65-1393. The results show that agricultural goods exports variable has a positive and significant effect with exchange rate variable, relative prices variable, money supply variable. And it has a negative and significant effect on agriculture investment. There is also a one-way causal relationship between the exchange rate and agricultural exports and the supply of money and agricultural exports, too. In addition, ECM show if agricultural exports are an imbalance, it will balance with decline a quarter in a year. To determine the relationship between variables in the long run used Johansson method. The vectors are convergent. The results of this study suggest that economic authorities try to reform the exchange rate and eliminate the official rate and free rate deviation arbitrarily. That is the best way to establish the stability of the currency and, consequently, long-term export stability. To do this, you have to lead the production of cash and money to produce and boost market capitalization.

In most previous studies concerning investigation of factors affecting economic growth, spatial dependencies have been ignored which would result in biased and inconsistent estimates. At first, economic growth of a country is influenced by its own geographical, internal conditions and capabilities then affected by the spillover effects of neighboring countries and its trading partners, which these influences by others on growth of a country are called spatial effects and spatial dependencies. Therefore, this study examines the factors affecting economic growth by using the spatial dynamic panel method in both developed countries (members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) and developing countries (members of the Economic Cooperation Organization) during the 2001-2015 period. The innovation of current research is to use dynamic matrix derived from bilateral trade of countries, which varies over time. By estimating spatial growth model, positive spillover effects from one country to its trading partners have been confirmed in both developed and developing countries. By comparing the results, only the physical capital factor has contributed to improving the growth of developing countries, while in developed countries, in addition to physical capital, two factors including human capital and trade have provided further growth. In order to capture positive effects of trade on advancing economic growth of ECO countries, it has been suggested to consider political and institutional changes in economic development programs.

The purpose of this study was to assess the relative importance of factors affecting the differentiation of income levels and the success of investment in agricultural businesses in the villages of Islamshahr. Differences in the rates of effectiveness and profitability of agricultural activities exacerbate economic dispersal, difference in the levels of farmers' livelihood, and the imbalance among the economic costs of agricultural jobs in a rural area. Regarding the diversity of cropland sizes in the region, the stratified sampling method was used to appropriately select a sample size of 195 people who took part in interviews and completed questionnaires. In this study, based on a descriptive and inferential approach, the three-branch model framework and the multiple discriminant analysis were used to evaluate the relative importance of the factors that affect the inequality of income levels of rural farmers. The results showed that most of the farmers were land owners and held secondary high school degrees. Also their average farming experience was about 20 years, and their main occupation was agriculture. Most agricultural lands in the region were found still using traditional irrigation methods, and more than 28% of the farmers did not consider the accessibility of water desirable. The results also showed that structural and environmental factors were the most important factors affecting the income gap among the farmers in the region. From the structural point of view, the type of land ownership and land size emerged as the most important factors to determine the probability of being in the lowest-income group.

Corruption is one of the most important determinant factors in economic fields, specifically in trade; and nowadays, it is crucial to know what factors reinforce or mitigate it. Trade openness is an influencing factor on corruption, and the extant literature has two different general perspectives facing that. The first perspective emphasizes that openness has a negative impact on corruption, while the second idea believes that such impact is positive. Hence, the aim of this paper is to answer this question: “what is the effect of openness on corruption in selected MENA countries?” To this end, our analysis is based on panel data that covered 10 MENA countries for 2003–2014. The results indicate that, along with the negative effect of per capita income and institutional quality such as ruling law, political stability and regulation quality, the effect of openness is also negative and significant. In other words, increase and expansion of trade and creating a competitive environment, as well as interacting with countries with systemic structure and less corruption, contributes to improving the institutional and legal environment in the MENA countries, so that, consequently, corruption would decrease. Accordingly, since the rank of Iran in openness and corruption is tenth and second among ten countries respectively, it is recommended that reducing trade barriers such as import tariff and creating a free market, would result in the fall of corruption through reducing monopoly rents of authorities in the field of trade, especially in imports.

In terms of quality and quantity, Iranian saffron has a considerable position at the international level and by taking advantage of the existing capacity; we can significantly increase the export earnings from it. On the other hand, sales forecasting based on time series analysis is s a very important element for the designing and implementing of marketing strategies in the international arena. However, the conventional approaches to forecasting, by ignoring the linear (or nonlinear) structure of data, do not provide accurate results. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to design a hybrid model consisting of two methods, artificial neural networks (ANN) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), in order to overcome the deficiencies and the use of the unique features of the each of these methods. Using the data related to the export of Iranian saffron during the period 1904-2013, the results of the study showed that the ARIMA–ANN hybrid model is stronger and better performance than ARIMA and ANN individual models in order to forecasting of Iranian saffron export. Therefore, given the considerable performance ARIMA–ANN hybrid model, the use of this model is recommended in setting strategies related to the export and also in the forecasting of the forecasting of time series variables.

Stable modeling in water resources management requires recognizing the relations between the different uses of water and their long-term results on one hand and taking into account the current and future access to water resources and demands for them, on the other hand. In recent years, Hamedan-Bahar plain has been identified as one of the restricted groundwater areas in Hamedan province. In this plain, the groundwater level has decreased remarkably due to lack of the proper water management. The aim of this study is to provide a model to maximize the net benefit of farmers considering the stability of the groundwater. Since the effect of discharge groundwater is accumulated over time, time is taken as an essential variable in solving water optimization problems. Accordingly, applying dynamic models such as the optimal control method is appropriate for this purpose. The optimal path for water extraction from groundwater resources can be determined using the optimal control model. In this model, the additional cost of water extraction due to the further exploitation has been considered as a constraint in the modeling process. The effect of the added costs on optimal path and the price of water has also been investigated. Considering the optimal use of water and maximum welfare of the farmers, the results show that it will take about 45 years for the water level to increase from 1716 meters to the optimal level of 1732 meters. During this period, the price of water will decrease from 3200 to 2200 Riyals per cubic meter and the annual harvest from the groundwater resources will reduce to the level of 1.7 million cubic meters. Therefore, fulfilling the specified limit not only results in stable groundwater resources, but also leads to a sustainable agricultural development and enhancement of farmers’ income.

This paper investigates the effect of reduction in agricultural subsidies in Iran. To this end, the social accounting matrix (SAM) as an analytical model is developed with dimensions of 78 × 78 for the year 2006. Since the amount of subsidies paid to the agriculture sector, based on Total Aggregate Measurement of Support (TAMS), is higher than amount set by the World Trade Organization, hence, in the case of applying for membership of Iran in this organization, Iran should reduce subsidies during a 10-year period, annually by reduction as much as 13600 billion Rials. This paper studies the reduction in agricultural subsidies by 13600 billion Rials. The findings indicate the reduction in gross domestic product (GDP) by more than 57000 billion Rials. One main effect of reduction in agricultural subsidies relates to reduction in output and employment, in such a way this shock results in reducing number of agricultural employees by 86000 people.

The groundwater resources in Hamedan-Bahar plain are threated by uncontrolled exploitation and overmining. So the underground water levels are depletion. The aim of this study is to analyze the welfare of farmers affected by excessive exploitation of these resources. Information collected in the field, through interviews and questionnaires completed by farmers in 2015. For this purpose, the estimation welfare function, measured the effect of reducing the groundwater level on the welfare of farmers. In this study, the effects of land adjacent to the welfare of farmers, estimated through spatial econometric approach. The correlation coefficient of the estimate showed that the use of spatial regression superior to the classical regression model. The results show that the annual welfare loss per meter groundwater level is for each farmer in wheat and potato 18754300 and 35672800 Rials, respectively. Thus, the losses to farmers, 5632235 Rials, and in the study area is 52 billion rials. Thus, decreased 2.6 percent of the per capita income of farmers. Therefore, considerable reduction in welfare and a continuation of this situation in the long term lead to reduced water availability and reducing the welfare of farmers. Therefore Recommended investment by governments at least reduced welfare, preservation and groundwater recharge. Also be customized to farmers who participate in watershed management projects designed by the government.

Economic growth planning and policy making is one of the macrocosmic goals which it need to pay specific attention to energy and environmental sector and their relationship with production. Therefore, this study has conducted to investigate the relationship between economic growth, energy consumption and environmental pollution using a Spatial Panel Simultaneous-Equations model for 9 developing countries during 2000-2011. Empirical results of this method show that energy consumption, economic growth and environmental pollution in each country is affected by these factors in neighboring countries. The results of research confirm there exists bidirectional causality between energy consumption and environmental pollution, economic growth and environmental pollution. Thus, there is a bidirectional causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. Regarding to result of this study suggests to achieve the sustainable economic growth should be used tax tools for controlling the emissions of CO2 and replacement of the renewable energies with fossil fuels.

Today in developing and some developed countries source separation of waste project is following coherently because of shortage of keeping abnormal wastes places and landfill band and also economic considerations. Hence, recycling and conversion materials organizations of municipalities have done some projects which resulted in increasing the participation of families in separation of valuable wastes. In this regard, present research tries to present decision-making algorithms of Mashhad citizens by applying new knowledge of data mining and C4.5 algorithm of decision tree and data of 145 citizens in the year 2012. Results show that the factor of Satisfaction of the Project is the most important factor influencing on citizens cooperations. Other variables in later levels are mother's employment status, assessment of valuation method of the project, awareness of environmental, economic and social advantages of the project and education level. Results would help policymakers in adopting suitable and targeted policies in the urban management scope, and in addition would enhance welfare level of citizens which is considered the most important goal of all urban organizations.

One of the most important economic problems of many developing countries is happening of the budget deficit and the current account deficit at the same time, that have adverse effects on performance of various sectors of the economy. In this study the twin deficit hypothesis in Iran was tested. For this purpose nonlinear relationship between budget deficit and current account deficit in the period of 1971-2012 was reviewed. At first, the stationary of time series variables examined. Then Johansen co-integration test was performed. There was a co-integration vector between budget deficit and current account deficit. The causality test in a frame of a vector autoregressive model showed a bi-directional causal relationship between the variables. Then the non-linearity test was performed and after confirmation of non-linearity, two regimes threshold vector autoregressive model was estimated. Also the unit root test of non-linear models (KS) was applied. The results showed that the current account deficit in the short run will be affected by budget deficit and current account deficit increase with the increasing of the budget deficit. But in the long run, these two variables are treated as independent together.

Due to the special nature of agricultural activities and results of decisions influenced by the risk and uncertainty of these activities, consideration risk is essential in planning for agriculture sector. Interval-valued fuzzy programming approach is advantage of in this study for considering the conditions of uncertainty and additionally emphasizing on the limitation of water resources in defining the optimal crop pattern. The required data was gathered via 128 questionnaire and interviews with the farmers of Esfarayen county as simple random sampling in 2012-2013. The results show that Forage maize, Red beans and wheat in the most case scenarios are economical as well as optimal crops for cultivation, and the profit of the optimul model increases with reduction the uncertainty in water resources. Also, the level of water consumption in current cropping patterns is more than the amount of water consumption in the optimal cropping pattern. Therefore, presentation of supportive policies such asenhancement of insurance coverage for crops or the guaranteed price for crops, cultivationof the recommended optimal crops are suggested to develop. In addition, the increase inprofitability of the farmers from too much usage of underground aquifers is stopped aswell.

This study estimate the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on saffron export demand. To this end، the pooled mean group (PMG) approach is used in order to implement the model of auto regressive distributed lag model (ARDL) and vector error correction model (VECM) in the context of panel data. The results showed that، relative price of exports has a negative and significant effect on Iran''s saffron export demand. In the short- and long-term، the estimated price elasticity suggests that Iranian saffron export demand is price inelastic. The results indicate that real income effect of importing countries on the export of Iranian saffron is positive. In the short-term، income importing countries has no significantly effect on Iranian saffron export demand، while the long-term effect is significant at the 0. 01 level. In both short- and long-term، the results indicate that exchange rate has a significant، positive effect on Iran''s saffron export demand. The exchange rate elasticity of export demand for Iran''s saffron is elastic in both short- and long-term. Therefore، the devaluation of the Rial، Iran''s currency، led to a significant increase in the export of Iranian saffron. Also، the results showed in the short-term، the unpredictability of exchange rate fluctuations lead to increase the degree of risk aversion of exporters of Iranian saffron and so they prefer to deal with this issue by reducing their export. However، in the long-term، the income effect dominates the substitution effect، and exchange rate fluctuations has a positive effect on the export of Iranian saffron by creating profit opportunities.