delphi method

Desertification is one of the most significant process of land degradation in all the world, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. In the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification report (1994), Desertification is land degradation in dry-lands, resulting from various factors, including both climatic variations and human activities. This process is always associated with soil degradation, pollution and reduction of water resources, vegetation and other biological resources in natural and ecological conditions. Therefore, determining the main factors of this process can be very effective in proper land management. This research was conducted with the aim of zoning sensitivity areas to the desertification intensity based on ESAs model and providing management strategies based on scenario planning in Razavi Khorasan province.

In this research, five criteria such as climatic quality, soil, vegetation, erosion and management (human activities), and 20 indicators such as soil texture, soil depth, rock fragment, parent Material, vegetation density, fire risk, rainfall. drought, water and wind erosion, land use change, mining, livestock density in pasture, etc. were used. were used. Scoring and weighting of the indicators was done using a questionnaire and based on the expert opinions of specialists, executive managers and field experiments. The designed questionnaire included 21 questions, that classified in the form of 5 criteria of soil, climate, vegetation, erosion and management, which were distributed among the statistical population in two rounds. Management strategies and policies were also obtained in the Delphi method in the form of expert panels (brainstorming).

The results showed that the vegetation criteria with indicators such as the reduction of vegetation, the increase in the risk of fire in pastures and forests due to the continuous droughts of the past two decades and the increase in the intensity of wind and water erosion, with a value of 1.419, has had the greatest value and importance in expansion the intensity of desertification. After that, factors such as human activities (management), climate, erosion and soil respectively have had the greatest impact on the sensitivity areas to desertification in Khorasan Razavi province. In terms of the critical situation, the high percentage of the areas in the northwestern regions such as Quchan and Chenaran township due to the impacts of drought, severe changes in land use and water has become desertification. In the central, eastern and southern parts due to drought, land use changes, lack of optimal land management and wind erosion, main reason has been the expansion of desertification. Besides that, all the townships of Khorasan Razavi province have fragile conditions. This issue can be considered as an important and serious warning for the future management of Khorasan Razavi province. Therefore, in order to provide effective ways to deal with the intensity of desertification, based on the opinion of experts and specialists in the current research, by considering only the priority indicators of each of the criteria, the number of 10 cross matrix of the important indicators of each of the criteria, 20 scenarios, 6 strategies and more than 40 strategies were obtained. So that, by using the suggested strategies could be planned and managed according to regional and local conditions, to reduce the intensity of desertification.

The ESAs model uses four criteria of management, vegetation, soil quality and climate mainly to evaluate areas sensitive to desertification. So that, in this research, due to the importance of the erosion (water and wind erosion), for zoning map of sensitivity areas to desertification were used. In order to provide management plans (strategies and policy), to reduce and combat desertification in Khorasan Razavi province, management strategies such as; -sustainable management of vegetation, - water resources management and watershed management, - soil management, - livestock management and reduction of environmental hazards caused by human activities, -education, promotion and culture and sustainable management. Therefore, in this research, only the important strategies and policy that can provide a comprehensive vision of land management in Khorasan Razavi province, were suggested.

Enhancing management solutions and effective planning to prevent or mitigate the destruction occurring in ecosystems within protected areas relies heavily on the comprehensive mapping and assessment of exposure to various environmental hazards. Consequently, the primary objective of this study was to systematically map multiple environmental hazards and compute the exposure index across the Kouh-e-Khamin protected area in Kohgiluyeh-Boyer Ahmad province. The methodology involved mapping and calculating the risk values associated with eight environmental hazards, namely drought, evapotranspiration, wildfire, maximum temperatures, floods, landslides, the intensity of exploitation, and tourism activities. Through the utilization of the Delphi method to determine the relative weight of each hazard, a spatially explicit map depicting changes in the exposure index throughout the protected area was generated. The findings underscored that drought and wildfire exhibited the highest relative weight, while flood and landslide demonstrated the lowest relative weight among all environmental hazards. Spatial analysis of the exposure index indicated that 23% of the protected area fell within the low and very low exposure classes, while 33% were classified in the high and very high exposure classes. Areas with a very high level of exposure were predominantly situated in the eastern and northern sectors, whereas regions with very low and low exposure levels were concentrated in the central parts of the protected area. This research, by furnishing an accurate spatial representation of the severity of multiple environmental hazards, has contributed vital information for the facilitation of the vulnerability assessment process in the Kouh-e-Khamin protected area.

Protected areas (PAs) are considered one of the most important ecotourism destinations in terms of biodiversity and having abundant capabilities and attractions. Since ecotourism activities do not always lead to economic benefits and environmental development, it is necessary to investigate the negative impacts of ecotourism activities in these areas. For this purpose, in this study, the Delphi method and SWOT-ANP model were used to investigate the negative impacts of ecotourism activities on the four types of PAs of Tehran province and provide optimal strategies. According to the results, the highest mean negative impacts of ecotourism in Lar National Park include unplanned development of ecotourism activities, reduction of dense pastures due to bush cutting, trampling, and lack of adequate monitoring, and in the Jajrud protected area, the trend of land use/cover changes, due to the development of ecotourism infrastructures and the increase in the demand of urban communities for the development of recreational activities. In the Tangeh Vashi National Natural Monument, the most negative impacts include the increase in environmental pollution due to the high number of ecotourists compared to the area's size and facilities, and finally, in the Kavde Wildlife Refuge, the highest mean is allocated to the increase in illegal hunting of wildlife due to the lack of monitoring mechanisms. In the following, to control these impacts, optimal strategies were selected by examining the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats based on the expert's viewpoint, which include offensive-competitive strategy (SO) in Lar Park, defensive strategy (WT)  in Jajrud area and the diversification strategy (ST) due to TangehVashi, and Kavdeh refuge, which should be considered by managers in planning and decision-making.

Fossil fuels, due to limited resources, causing pollution and global warming, have caused the use of renewable energy, especially wind energy, to be considered. For this reason, to determine the criteria for locating wind farms in the coastal area of Sistan and Baluchistan province, from reviewing the sources, studying the plans and research, standards, and reviewing documents from 30 internal sources 20-year ago and external sources was used. Due to a large number of criteria and indicators, summarization was done, they were divided into two ecological and human groups, which include 8 criteria, climate, land, uses and management areas, development infrastructure, capital resources, Itis management, health and consequence, the average wind speed and distance from the residence had the highest frequency of indicators in previous experiences. The Delphi method was used to screen the criteria and the opinions of 11 wind farm experts were used. The results of the content validity evaluation of the questionnaires showed that all the respondents chose the indicators of average wind speed, wind continuity, distance from landslide areas, distance from military operation areas, distance from the power grid, and development costs as the most important spatial indicators. Measuring the importance of the criteria based on the Delphi method is dependent on the calculation of two indicators, the percentage of importance and the degree of importance, which were used to calculate the final importance coefficient of the criteria through these two parameters. Based on Delphi calculations, the most essential site selection wind farm indicators were obtained, respectively, average wind speed, wind continuity, distance from the power grid, and wind power density. In order to evaluate the potential of wind energy for the development of wind farms in the coastal area, climate indicators, annual average wind speed, annual average wind power density, and annual average wind continuity percentage were used. Analysis of climatic criteria was done by using a geographic information system and kriging interpolation functions of mapping. Finally, the coastal area was divided into two zones, 91% suitable for wind power development and 9% unsuitable.

Evaluation of mechanical and biological operations in watersheds is always emphasized by managers and executive organs. To achieve this, there is a need for an integrated evaluation and management approach in which processes and all physical, economic, and social effects are considered. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effects of biological operations performed based on physical, economic, and social criteria in Bushkan watershed in the east of Bushehr province. Four scenarios of biological operations in the area were identified, including planting, planting with creating curved pits, contour furrow, and contour furrow with planting. To evaluate different scenarios, the indicators related to each scenario in terms of physical, economic, and social criteria were calculated. After standardizing the indicators and weighting them, the scenarios were prioritized by Delphi technique. The results showed that the scenario of contour furrows with planting, planting with creating curved pits, planting, and contour furrows are the first to fourth priorities in the region, With areas of 16554, 2155, 9655, and 428 ha and weights of 0.878, 0.741, 0.701 and 0.649, respectively. It is concluded, Scenario 4 (contour furrow with planting) was the best scenario in Bushkan watershed. Therefore, with the help of the scenario management approach and evaluation of biological management scenarios, planners and operators of watersheds are able to select the best possible scenarios after being aware of the results of various measures. It is suggested that considering all the limitations, indicators, criteria and other types of prioritization methods be used to examine the effects of biological operations scenarios in the study watershed.

Desertification, as a complex process, is a serious threat to the environment in many parts of the world, especially in arid regions. With accurate knowledge of the factors influencing the spread of desertification and appropriate management strategies, the impacts of this process can be controlled or reduced. The aim of the current study was to identify and assess indicators and indices of desertification for the assessment and mapping of sensitive areas of the Kavir-e-Namak basin in Khorasan Razavi province, to desertification. In this study, an assessment model of sensitive areas to desertification (ESAs or MEDALUS), available data based on field studies in 2021, was used. At first, five criteria including soil, climate, vegetation, erosion and human activities were identified as the main criteria for desertification.  Then, on the basis of the opinions of over 40 natural resource experts, the indices of each criterion were classified, weighted and assessed. The quality of each criterion was determined by the calculation of the geometric average of the indices. Finally, the map of areas sensitive to desertification in the study area was produced using GIS. The identification of management strategies was conducted using the Delphi approach and distributing a two-cycle questionnaire based on scenario planning and future studies. The results showed that among the criteria for desertification in the study area, climatic criteria, human activities, soil and erosion with values ​​of 1.54, 1.53, 1.51 and 1.50, respectively, are the most important criteria followed by the vegetation criterion with a value of 1.45 as a next effective criterion of desertification. Results indicate that 12% of the study area are in the fragile class, and approximately 88% in the moderate to severe critical class.  Based on scenario planning and method of futures studies, the best and worst scenarios in four different categories including adaptive management and organizational cohesion, economic and social empowerment of local communities, educational development, culture and advertising, and participatory implementation of natural resource projects as comprehensive management strategies were developed.

Tourism and entrepreneurship are including in new thread of world scientific literature. No doubt accurate and appropriate compilation of tourism and entrepreneurship can not only meet the needs of the villagers, involving secure tourism for tourists. The key issue in the realization of entrepreneurial activity at the community level, providing entrepreneurial atmosphere. The relationship between tourism and sustainable development of entrepreneurship in the region can be through consideration the potential positive impact of entrepreneurship on various aspects of economic, cultural and social environment to be determined. The present study aims to identify and prioritize the criteria for ecotourism entrepreneurship desert regions have been conducted in Maranjab. The research instrument was a questionnaire constructed with 6 index, 21 criteria and 125 sub-criteria Its validity by experts and its reliability by using Cronbach's alpha test and was confirmed to the 0/93 and by 25 experts in the field of tourism Maranjab answered. Data analysis was conducted using the Delphi technique. The findings suggest, cultural and educational criteria with a weighted average of 1.096, the highest factor influencing entrepreneurship is ecotourism in Maranjab. Social Criteria 0.946 Weighted average rating criteria for eco-tourism, basic infrastructure, accommodation, transport and leisure facilities have been 0.665, 0.588, 0.560, 0.559 weight rating and 0.524 respectively in the second to seventh positions. Local market benchmark with an average of 0.508 points eighth criteria of effective was influencing entrepreneurship ecotourism. Criteria soil characteristics, physical appearance, economic, vegetation, climate, wildlife, institutional, advertising and media, health - Medical treatment, food and beverage, water resources, communications - electronic and environmental sensitivity weighted average 0.163 respectively in the subsequent positions ecotourism was diagnosed impact on entrepreneurial opportunities.

Sustainable forest function monitoring needs to develop appropriate forest functions and performance indicators to assist decision making، analyses and evaluation of sustainable forest functions. This study for first time generate a set of performance indicators for monitoring forest function as a case study for kheyrud forest located on east of Nowshahr، Iran. The method of this study consists of three phases. In the first phase 77 indicators are developed for four forest functions including; forest production، forest conservation، forest protection and forest recreation، then this set of indicators are prioritized based on importance of binominal test. In second phase this set is prioritized based on difficulty of measurements on field. The result show، indicators are in two groups; more important indicators as a main indicator for sustainable forest functions and less important indicator as an alternative indicator for first group. In the last phase، all of indicators based on two aspects of importance and performance are mixed and divided in to four groups; less operational and less important، operational and less important، less operational and important، operational important. The final set is developed based on operatioanl and important indicators and is appropriate for sustainable monitoring of Northern forest functions in Iran.

Considering the fast-growing destruction of natural resources and the existing threats to bio-diversification، the necessity of investigating and elevating the conservation level of such areas has become a challenge. This research which was conducted in SefidKooh Aresk prohibited hunting area in Damghan، is intended to investigate the possibility of elevating its conservation level from a «Prohibited Hunting Area» to a «Conserved Area». Rather than the normal practices applied for investigating the conservation level، this research utilized a systematic approach to identify the status of the region and to find the possible ways for its elevation. For this purpose، a combination of «Carlos RiveroBlanco، Blanco and Mario Gabaldon» and «SumerGulez» valuation method criteria is used at the first step. The importance of each criterion in relation to the objective of the research is determined using Delphi method. The «one sample chi- square test» is used to analyze the outcomes of Delphi questionnaires. At the next step، the final criteria were sent to the local experts in the form of questionnaire for further examination of the region and its situation. The final level of the region was determined through the outcomes of such study. To assess the above mentioned evaluation، the research team tested some scenarios to examine the closest scenarios to the assessed score by using T-test with two samples. The final result of this test indicates its proximity to the score of appropriate situation scenario. Therefore، it is concluded that the situation of the investigated region is appropriate for being elevated to a Conserved Area.

In this study، effective criteria on process of tourism areas selection were collected due to macro planning of capable areas to tourism sample regions in Khorasan Razavi province. Then، their priority was carried out based on Delphi method. After determining the relative weights and criteria priorities، the map of capable areas to planning tourism sample regions was obtained at the province level. According to this research، 25 major criteria and 82 sub criteria were found from seven environmental criteria groups، tourism، physical- infrastructural، economic، cultural- social، design and also management. Cultural-Economic and management criteria group had the maximum and minimum numbers of sub criteria with 28 and five criteria، respectively. Delphi findings for the criteria groups show that in process of tourism areas selection، environment، physical-infrastructural، cultural-social، design، management and economic criteria groups presented priority 1 to 7، respectively. On basis of this study، for determination level of effectiveness about sub criteria in the tourism areas selection process، 8. 3% of sub criteria were detected in very high-influence class، 22. 6% in high-influence class، 35. 7% in medium-influence class، and 33. 4% in low-influence class. In addition، regarding to involve of eliminating indicators، the most priorities were assigned to attractions and tourist destinations، tourism and market demand، environmental hazards، sensitive habitat and also vegetation sub criteria، respectively.

Tourism as a growing industry needs special attention in developing countries. During last decades، nature based tourism has been growing faster than other tourism fields and it seems to grow even faster. Ever growing demand for nature based tourism emphasizes the necessity of a holistic planning for preserving environment against degradation. Objective of this study is to present a nature based tourism planning in arid and semi-arid areas. Khatam township in south of Yazd province was selected as case study. First، criteria for nature based planning were chosen from foreign and domestic literature. Then Delphi method was implemented for screening and prioritizing these criteria resulting in 11 criteria and 29 sub-criteria ordered based on percentage and degree of importance. Each criterion was measured or mapped by a number of one to four sub-criteria and each sub-criterion by one indicator. Sub-criteria referred to climate were used to determine tourism climate index and time constraints. Subjective maps were developed by spatial sub-criteria. Using Spatial Multi Criteria Evaluation (SMCE) to find proper fields for nature based tourism; four zones were chosen with a total area of 17278 (ha) which is equal to 5% of study area. Employing qualitative sub-criteria in TOPSIS method and distance to ideal solution was used for prioritizing zones. Results showed that the smallest zone has the highest priority. Constraints on tourism activities were developed on sustainable nature based tourism framework basis in arid and semi-arid areas using tourists demands projected in questionnaires.

Ecotourism is known as a type of sustainable tourism which helps both conservation and development, but many of tourism sites go to instability and self-destruction because of unsuitable environment assessment. Besides it is necessary to introduce new region for increasing of protected area in Iran. Using related criteria is an appropriate method for selection of suitable protected area and ecotourism places. Regarding to this goal, 12 criteria and 41 sub criteria for ecotourism management planning and 5 criteria and 26 sub criteria for selection of protected patches in natural ecosystems of Iran, were extracted from reviewing of different documents. These criteria and sub criteria were screened for tourism management planning and selection of protected patches in island ecosystems by using Delphi Method and finally 11 criteria and 25 sub criteria for ecotourism management planning and 5 criteria and 15 sub criteria for selection of protected patches were selected in Hengam Island. Then they were weighted differently by Analytical Hierarchy Process and their priority was distinguished, then determined coefficients were demonstrated as mathematical model for selection of protected and ecotourism patches. Related indicators were described for all selected sub criteria which were suitable for studied area characteristics and could change into maps. These maps were imported to GIS and symmetrical distance maps were prepared. Finally appropriate ecotourism and protected area were identified in Hengam Island by using mathematical model and it were specified cautiously ecotourism zone, ecotourism with low physical development and ecotourism without physical development in case of ecotourism according to distinguished areas and in case of conservation it was distinguished protected area zone, environmental sensitive zone, rehabilitation and restored zone and control and monitoring zone. Results showed that 48.99 percent of studied area which is the whole island and 10 meter depth of surrounding water has protected value potentially. Also about 62.33 percent of the study area is suitable for ecotourism activities and 21.31 percent should be restored and rehabilitated and finally 70.99 percent of Island and the surrounding water are suggested for control and monitoring.